Future of the Italian Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

Future of the Italian Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

Table of Contents
1. Introduction 8
1.1. What is this Report About? 8
1.2. Definitions 8
1.3. Summary Methodology 10
1.4. About Strategic Defence Intelligence 11
2. Executive Summary 12
3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities 14
3.1. Current Market Scenario 15
3.1.1. Primary threat perception 15
3.1.2. Military Doctrine and Strategy 16
3.1.3. Military Fleet Size 17
3.1.4. Procurement Programs 22
3.1.5. Ongoing procurement programs 22
3.1.6. Future procurement programs 23
3.1.7. Top Procurement Programs by Value (US$ Million) 2018-2023 24
3.1.8. Social, Political and Economic Environment & Support for Defense Projects 25
3.1.9. Political and Strategic Alliances 26
3.2. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast 27
3.2.1. Italian annual defense expenditure is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 1.41% over the forecast period 27
3.2.2. Modernization of defense systems, peacekeeping initiatives, maintaining NATO, EU, and UN stipulations, and increasing terrorism activities are expected to drive Italian defense expenditure 29
3.2.3. Defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP is expected to average 0.8% over the forecast period 30
3.3. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation 32
3.3.1. The majority of Italy's defense budget is allocated for revenue expenditure 32
3.3.2. Overall capital expenditure is expected to grow at a CAGR of 1.97% over the forecast period 34
3.3.3. Common services leads the defense budget allocation with 37.5% share during 2013 to 2017 36
3.3.4. Common services to account for the largest share of the Italian defense budget 38
3.3.5. Per capita defense expenditure to increase over the forecast period 42
3.4. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast 43
3.4.1. Homeland security expenditure to post a CAGR of 0.90% over the forecast period 43
3.4.2. Homeland security expenditure in Italy is largely driven by threats of terrorism, mafia wars, cyber security issues, and rising anarchist groups 45
3.4.3. Terrorism Index rates Italy as a "moderately affected" region 47
3.4.4. Italy faces threats from terrorist organizations 48
3.4.5. Italy has a score of 2.8 on the Terrorism Index 50
3.5. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets 51
3.5.1. Italian defense expenditure expected to increase significantly over the forecast period 51
3.5.2. Italy is one of the largest defense spenders in the world 53
3.5.3. Italy to spend an average of 0.8% of its GDP on defense over the forecast period 54
3.6. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Drivers 55
3.6.1. Top 10 Defense Market Categories by Value (US$ Million) - Forecast Period Projections 55
3.6.2. Multi-Role Aircraft 56
3.6.3. Physical Security Critical Infrastructure Protection 57
3.6.4. Land-based C4ISR 58
4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics 59
4.1. Import Market Dynamics 61
4.1.1. Defense imports to remain constant over the forecast period 61
4.1.2. Germany, France, and the UK have entered the import market in competition with the US 62
4.1.3. Aircraft, naval vessels and sensors were the key defense imports during 2013-2017 63
4.2. Export Market Dynamics 64
4.2.1. Falling exports is a concern for Italy's domestic military industry 64
4.2.2. Asia and the Middle East to account for a major portion of Italian defense exports 65
4.2.3. Aircraft was the main exported defense product during 2013-2017 66
5. Industry Dynamics 67
5.1. Five Forces Analysis 67
5.1.1. Bargaining power of the supplier: medium 69
5.1.2. Bargaining power of the buyer: high 69
5.1.3. Barrier to entry: medium 69
5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: low to medium 69
5.1.5. Threat of substitution: low 70
6. Market Entry Strategy 71
6.1. Market Regulation 71
6.1.1. The Italian defense industry is largely driven by government regulation and policy 71
6.1.2. Restrictive defense policies will discourage foreign investment 72
6.2. Market Entry Route 73
6.2.1. Budget Process 73
6.2.2. Procurement Policy and Process 74
6.2.3. Technology transfer provides good market entry opportunities 75
6.2.4. Research and development collaborations offer market access 75
6.2.5. Joint ventures, partnerships, and licensing agreements are key market entry strategies into the Italian defense industry 76
6.3. Key Challenges 77
6.3.1. Defense budget cuts across Europe challenge domestic defense companies 77
6.3.2. Restrictive foreign policy poses a challenge for non-European companies to enter the Italian defense industry 77
7. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights 78
7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview 78
7.2. Key Domestic Companies 80
7.2.1. Leonardo: Overview 80
7.2.2. Leonardo: Products 80
7.2.3. Leonardo: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 80
7.2.4. Leonardo: Alliances 82
7.2.5. Leonardo: Recent Contract Wins 83
7.2.6. Leonardo: Financial Analysis 85
7.2.7. Fincantieri: Overview 88
7.2.8. Fincantieri: Defense Products 88
7.2.9. Fincantieri: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 89
7.2.10. Fincantieri: Alliances 90
7.2.11. Fincantieri: Recent Contract Wins 90
7.2.12. Fincantieri: Financial Analysis 91
7.2.13. MBDA: Overview 94
7.2.14. MBDA: Defense Products 94
7.2.15. MBDA: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 95
7.2.16. MBDA: Alliances 96
7.2.17. MBDA: Recent Contract Wins 97
7.3. Key Private Companies 99
7.3.1. Elettronica: Overview 99
7.3.2. Elettronica: Products 99
7.3.3. Elettronica: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 100
7.3.4. Elettronica: Alliances 100
7.3.5. Elettronica: Recent Contract Wins 101
8. Business Environment and Country Risk 102
8.1. Economic Performance 102
8.1.1. Gross Domestic Product per Capita 102
8.1.2. Gross Domestic Product, current US$ Billion 103
8.1.3. Exports of Goods and Services 104
8.1.4. Imports of Goods and Services 105
8.1.5. Gross National Disposable Income 106
8.1.6. Local Currency Unit per USD 107
8.1.7. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies 108
8.1.8. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (Percentage of GDP) 109
8.1.9. Total Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as a Percentage of GDP (LCU) 110
8.1.10. Goods Exports as a Percentage of GDP 111
8.1.11. Goods Imports as a Percentage of GDP 112
8.1.12. Services Imports as a % of GDP 113
8.1.13. Services Exports as a % of GDP 114
8.1.14. Net Foreign Direct Investment (BoP, current US$ Billion) 115
8.1.15. Net FDI as a % of GDP 116
8.1.16. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (US$ Billion) 117
9. Appendix 118
9.1. About SDI 118
9.2. Disclaimer 118

List of Tables
Table 1: Italian Army Strength 17
Table 2: Italian Navy Strength 19
Table 3: Italian Air Force Strength 20
Table 4: Italy - Ongoing Development and Procurement Programs 22
Table 5: Italy - Future Procurement Programs 23
Table 6: Italy -Top 10 Defense Procurement Programs by Value (US$ Million), 2018-2023 24
Table 7: Italy Defense Expenditure (EUR Billion & US$ Billion), 2014-2023 27
Table 8: Italy GDP Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2014-2023 30
Table 9: Italian Defense Budget Split between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023 32
Table 10: Italy Defense Capital Expenditure (EUR Billion & US$ Billion), 2014-2023 34
Table 11: Italian Defense Budget Split Between Military Services (Army, Navy, Air Force and Common Services) (%), 2014-2023 36
Table 12: Italy - Defense Budget Breakdown by Service (EUR Billion), 2014-2023 38
Table 13: Italy - Defense Budget Breakdown by Service (US$ Billion), 2014-2023 40
Table 14: Italian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2014-2023 42
Table 15: Italian Homeland Security Expenditure (EUR Billion & US$ Billion), 2014-2023 43
Table 16: Terrorism Index, 2018 48
Table 17: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2014-2018 vs. 2019-2023 51
Table 18: Italy- 10 Leading Defense Market Categories by Value (US$ Million), 2018-2023 55
Table 19: Offset Regulations in Italy 71
Table 20: Italian Parliamentary Budget Approval Timetable 73
Table 21: Italian Joint Development Programs for Missile Defense Systems 75
Table 22: Italy - Top 10 Defense Suppliers by Value (US$ Million), 2018-2023 78
Table 23: Competitive Landscape of the Italian Defense Industry 79
Table 24: Leonardo - Product Focus 80
Table 25: Leonardo - Alliances 82
Table 26: Leonardo - Recent Contract Wins 83
Table 27: Fincantieri - Product Focus 88
Table 28: Fincantieri - Alliances 90
Table 29: Fincantieri - Recent Contract Wins 90
Table 30: MBDA - Product Focus 94
Table 31: MBDA - Alliances 96
Table 32: MBDA - Recent Contract Wins 97
Table 33: Elettronica - Product Focus 99
Table 34: Elettronica - Alliances 100
Table 35: Elettronica - Recent Contract Wins 101

List of Figures
Figure 1: Italy Defense Expenditure (EUR Billion), 2014-2023 28
Figure 2: Italy Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2014-2023 28
Figure 3: Italian GDP Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2014-2023 31
Figure 4: Italian Defense Budget Split between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023 33
Figure 5: Italy Defense Capital Expenditure (EUR Billion), 2014-2023 35
Figure 6: Italy Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2014-2023 35
Figure 7: Italian Defense Budget Split Between Army, Air Force, Navy and Common Services (%), 2014-2023 37
Figure 8: Italy - Defense Budget Breakdown by Service (EUR Billion), 2014-2023 39
Figure 9: Italy - Defense Budget Breakdown by Service (US$ Billion), 2014-2023 41
Figure 10: Italian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2014-2023 42
Figure 11: Italian Homeland Security Budget (EUR Billion), 2014-2023 44
Figure 12: Italian Homeland Security Budget (US$ Billion), 2014-2023 44
Figure 13: Terrorism Heat Map, 2018 47
Figure 14: Terrorism Index, 2018 50
Figure 15: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2014-2018 vs. 2019-2023 52
Figure 16: Defense Expenditure of the World's Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2018 and 2023 53
Figure 17: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2018 54
Figure 18: Multi-Role Aircraft (US$ Million), 2018-2023 56
Figure 19: Physical Security CIP Market (US$ Million), 2018-2023 57
Figure 20: Land-based C4ISR (US$ Million), 2018-2023 58
Figure 21: Italy - Defense Procurements in Terms of Supplier Relationships, 2018 60
Figure 22: Italian Defense Import Trend, 2013-2017 (TIV values) 61
Figure 23: Italian Defense Imports by Country (%), 2013-2017 62
Figure 24: Italian Defense Imports by Category (%), 2013-2017 63
Figure 25: Italian Defense Export Trend, 2013-2017 (TIV values) 64
Figure 26: Italian Defense Exports by Country (%), 2013-2017 65
Figure 27: Italian Defense Exports by Category (%), 2013-2017 66
Figure 28: Industry Dynamics - Porter's Five Forces Analysis 68
Figure 29: Leonardo - Revenue Trend Analysis (EUR Billion), 2013-2017 85
Figure 30: Leonardo - Net Profit Trend Analysis (EUR Million), 2013-2017 86
Figure 31: Leonardo - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (EUR Million), 2013-2017 87
Figure 32: Fincantieri - Revenue Trend Analysis (EUR Billion), 2013-2017 91
Figure 33: Fincantieri - Net Profit Trend Analysis (EUR Billion), 2013-2017 92
Figure 34: Fincantieri - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (EUR Million), 2013-2017 93
Figure 35: Italy - GDP Per Capita at Constant Prices (US$), 2015-2025 102
Figure 36: Italy Gross Domestic Product (current US$ Billion), 2015-2025 103
Figure 37: Italian Exports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014 104
Figure 38: Italian Imports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014 105
Figure 39: Italy Gross National Disposable Income (US$ Billion), 2005-2014 106
Figure 40: Italy LCU per US$, 2015-2024 107
Figure 41: Italian Market Capitalization of listed Companies (US$ Billion), 2005-2012 108
Figure 42: Italian Market Capitalization of Listed Companies as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2012 109
Figure 43: Italian Government cash surplus/deficit as a Percentage of GDP (LCU), 2005-2012 110
Figure 44: Italy Goods Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014 111
Figure 45: Italy Goods Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014 112
Figure 46: Italy Services Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014 113
Figure 47: Italy Services Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014 114
Figure 48: Italy Net Foreign Direct Investment (current US$ Billion), 2005-2014 115
Figure 49: Italy Net FDI as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014 116
Figure 50: Italy Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (US$ Billion), 2005-2014 117

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