Future of the French Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

Future of the French Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

Table of Contents
1. Introduction 9
1.1. What is this Report About? 9
1.2. Definitions 9
1.3. Summary Methodology 11
1.4. About Strategic Defence Intelligence 12
2. Executive Summary 13
3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities 15
3.1. Current Market Scenario 16
3.1.1. Primary Threat Perception 16
3.1.2. Military Doctrine & Strategy 18
3.1.3. Military Fleet Size 21
3.1.4. Procurement Programs 26
3.1.5. Ongoing Procurement programs 26
3.1.6. Future Procurement Programs 28
3.1.7. Top Procurement Programs by Value (US$ Million) 2018-2023 29
3.1.8. Social, Political and Economic Environment & Support for Defense Projects 30
3.1.9. Political & Strategic Alliances 31
3.2. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast 32
3.2.1. French total defense expenditure, including pensions, to grow at a CAGR of 4.14% during 2019-2023 32
3.2.2. French defense budget, excluding pensions, to grow at a CAGR of 4.43% during 2019-2023 34
3.2.3. International peacekeeping operation contributions and armed forces modernization programs drive the French defense industry 36
3.2.4. Defense budget as a percentage of GDP will remain at an average of 1.70% over the forecast period 37
3.3. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation 39
3.3.1. Share of capital expenditure is expected to increase during the forecast period 39
3.3.2. Capital expenditure is anticipated to record a CAGR of 4.66% over the forecast period 41
3.3.3. The army accounted for the largest percentage share of the overall French defense budget 43
3.3.4. Army to continue accounting for the majority share of the France defense budget 45
3.3.5. French per capita defense expenditure to increase during the forecast period 49
3.4. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast 51
3.4.1. France's homeland security market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.24% over the forecast period 51
3.4.2. Counter terrorism activities, cyber security, police modernization, and gendarmerie drives France's homeland security expenditure 53
3.4.3. France falls under the "highly affected" category in the terrorism index 55
3.4.4. France faces threats from terrorist organizations 56
3.4.5. France has a terrorism index score of 6.0 58
3.5. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets 59
3.5.1. France ranks highly among the major global defense markets 59
3.5.2. France is expected to remain among the top 10 defense spending countries in the world 61
3.5.3. French defense budget as a percentage of GDP is expected to decline over the forecast period 62
3.6. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Drivers 63
3.6.1. Top 10 Defense Market Sectors by Value (US$ Million) - Projections over period 2018-2023 63
3.6.2. Physical Security 64
3.6.3. Land-based C4ISR 65
3.6.4. Military IT-Networking 66
3.6.5. Transport Aircraft 67
4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics 68
4.1. Import Market Dynamics 69
4.1.1. Domestic companies are key equipment suppliers to the French Ministry of Defense 69
4.1.2. The US, Spain, and the Netherlands are France's major suppliers 70
4.1.3. Aircraft and missiles accounted for a total share of 60.3% in terms of French defense imports 71
4.2. Export Market Dynamics 72
4.2.1. France ranked fifth among the countries with the highest volume of defense exports 72
4.2.2. Asian countries are the major prospects for French defense exports 73
4.2.3. Aircraft accounted for a large share of French defense exports during 2011-2015 74
5. Industry Dynamics 75
5.1. Five Forces Analysis 75
5.1.1. Bargaining Power of Supplier: Low 76
5.1.2. Bargaining Power of Buyer: High 76
5.1.3. Barrier to Entry: High 76
5.1.4. Intensity of Rivalry: Medium to High 76
5.1.5. Threat of Substitution: Medium 76
6. Market Entry Strategy 77
6.1. Market Regulation 77
6.1.1. No formal offset policy in France 77
6.1.2. Foreign direct investment in the defense sector and transfer of defense-related products are subject to prior authorization 77
6.2. Market Entry Route 78
6.2.1. Budgeting Process 78
6.2.2. Procurement Policy and Process 79
6.2.3. Foreign Military Sales (FMS) to France 80
6.2.4. Collaborations provide market entry opportunities 80
6.2.5. Joint equipment programs favored by the French government 81
6.3. Key Challenges 82
6.3.1. Increased preference for domestic and European defense companies impedes the entry of non-European firms 82
6.3.2. Increased cost overruns and delays in product delivery 82
7. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights 83
7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview 83
7.2. Key Public Sector Companies 86
7.2.1. Dassault Aviation: Overview 86
7.2.2. Dassault Aviation: Product Focus 86
7.2.3. Dassault Aviation: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 86
7.2.4. Dassault Aviation: Alliances 89
7.2.5. Dassault Aviation: Recent Contract Wins 90
7.2.6. Dassault Aviation: Financial Analysis 91
7.2.7. Thales: Overview 93
7.2.8. Thales: Major Products and Services 93
7.2.9. Thales: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 95
7.2.10. Thales: Alliances 99
7.2.11. Thales: Recent Contract Wins 101
7.2.12. Thales: Financial Analysis 105
7.2.13. Constructions Mécaniques de Normandie (CMN): Overview 107
7.2.14. Constructions Mécaniques de Normandie (CMN): Product Focus 107
7.2.15. Constructions Mécaniques de Normandie (CMN): Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 107
7.2.16. Constructions Mécaniques de Normandie (CMN): Alliances 108
7.2.17. Constructions Mécaniques de Normandie (CMN): Recent Contract Wins 108
7.2.18. EuroTorp: Overview 109
7.2.19. EuroTorp: Product Focus 109
7.2.20. EuroTorp: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 110
7.2.21. EuroTorp: Alliances 110
7.2.22. EuroTorp: Recent Contract Wins 110
7.2.23. Airbus Defense and Space: Overview 112
7.2.24. Airbus Defense and Space: Major Products and Services 112
7.2.25. Airbus Defense and Space: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives. 114
7.2.26. Airbus Defense and Space: Alliances 117
7.2.27. Airbus Defense and Space: Recent Contract Wins 118
7.2.28. Safran Group: Overview 121
7.2.29. Safran Group: Product Focus 121
7.2.30. Safran Group: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 122
7.2.31. Safran Group: Alliances 124
7.2.32. Safran Group: Recent Contract Wins 125
7.2.33. Safran Group: Financial Analysis 128
7.2.34. Nexter Systems: Overview 130
7.2.35. Nexter Systems: Product Focus 130
7.2.36. Nexter Systems: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 130
7.2.37. Nexter Systems: Alliances 131
7.2.38. Nexter Systems: Recent Contract Wins 132
7.2.39. MBDA: Overview 134
7.2.40. MBDA: Product Focus 134
7.2.41. MBDA: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 135
7.2.42. MBDA: Alliances 138
7.2.43. MBDA: Recent Contract Wins 139
7.2.44. Airbus Helicopters: Overview 141
7.2.45. Airbus Helicopters: Product Focus 141
7.2.46. Airbus Helicopters: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 142
7.2.47. Airbus Helicopters: Alliances 143
7.2.48. Airbus Helicopters: recent contract wins 144
7.2.49. Naval Group: Overview 146
7.2.50. Naval Group: Major Products and Services 146
7.2.51. Naval Group: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 147
7.2.52. Naval Group: Alliances 148
7.2.53. Naval Group: Recent Contract Wins 149
7.2.54. Renault Truck Defense: Overview 151
7.2.55. Renault Truck Defense: Product Focus 151
7.2.56. Renault Truck Defense: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 151
7.2.57. Renault Truck Defense: Alliances 153
7.2.58. Renault Truck Defense: Recent Contract Wins 153
8. Business Environment and Country Risk 155
8.1. Economic Performance 155
8.1.1. GDP Per Capita at Constant Prices (US$) 155
8.1.2. GDP at Current Prices (US$) 156
8.1.3. Exports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion) 157
8.1.4. Imports of Goods and Services (LCU) 158
8.1.5. Gross National Disposable Income (US$ Billion) 159
8.1.6. LCU per US$ (Period Average) 160
8.1.7. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion) 161
8.1.8. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (Percentage of GDP) 162
8.1.9. Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as a Percentage of GDP (LCU) 163
8.1.10. Goods Exports and Imports as a Percentage of GDP 164
8.1.11. Services Imports and Exports as a Percentage of GDP 165
8.1.12. Foreign Direct Investment, net (BoP, current US$ Billion) 166
8.1.13. Net Foreign Direct Investment as a Percentage of GDP 167
8.1.14. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (US$ billion) 168
9. Appendix 169
9.1. About SDI 169
9.2. Disclaimer 169

List of Tables
Table 1: French Army Strength 21
Table 2: French Navy Strength 23
Table 3: French Air Force Strength 25
Table 4: French - Ongoing Development and Procurement Programs 26
Table 5: French - Future Procurement Programs 28
Table 6: Top French Defense Procurement Programs by Value (US$ Million) 2018-2023 29
Table 7: France Defense Expenditure (EUR billion & US$ billion), 2014-2023 32
Table 8: France Defense Budget Allocations Excluding Pensions (EUR billion & US$ billion), 2014-2023 34
Table 9: France GDP Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2014-2023 37
Table 10: France Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023 39
Table 11: France Defense Capital Expenditure (EUR Billion & US$ Billion), 2014-2023 41
Table 12: French Defense Budget Split Between Army, Navy, Air Force and Common Services, 2014-2023 43
Table 13: French Defense Budget in EUR Billion - Breakdown by Services (Army, Navy, Air Force and Common Services) 2014-2023 45
Table 14: French Defense Budget in US$ Billion - Breakdown by Services (Army, Navy, Air Force and Common Services) 2014-2023 47
Table 15: French Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2014-2023 49
Table 16: France Homeland Security Expenditure (EUR billion& US$ billion), 2014-2023 51
Table 17: Terrorism Index, 2018 56
Table 18: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2014-2018 vs. 2019-2023 59
Table 19: Top 10 The France's Defense Market Sectors by Value (US$ Million) - 2018-2023 63
Table 20: French Budget Formation Timetable 78
Table 21: FMS deals to France 80
Table 22: French Participation in International Defense Equipment Development Collaborations 81
Table 23: Top 10 Defense Suppliers in The French Defense Industry - By Value (US$ Million) 2018-2023 83
Table 24: Competitive Landscape of the French Defense Industry 84
Table 25: Dassault Aviation - Product Focus 86
Table 26: Dassault Aviation - Alliances 89
Table 27: Dassault Aviation - Recent Contract Wins 90
Table 28: Thales - Major Products and Services 93
Table 29: Thales - Alliances 99
Table 30: Thales - Recent Contract Wins 101
Table31: Dassault Aviation - Product focus 107
Table 32: Constructions Mécaniques de Normandie (CMN) - Alliances 108
Table 33: Constructions Mécaniques de Normandie (CMN) - Recent Contract Wins 108
Table 34: Dassault Aviation - Product Focus 109
Table 35: EuroTorp - Alliances 110
Table 36: EuroTorp - Recent Contract Wins 110
Table 37: Airbus Defense and Space - Major Products and Services 112
Table 38: Airbus Defense and Space - Alliances 117
Table 39: Airbus Defense and Space - Recent Contract Wins 118
Table 40: Safran Technologies - Product Focus 121
Table 41: Safran Group - Alliances 124
Table 42: Safran Group - Recent Contract Wins 125
Table 43: Nexter Systems - Product Focus 130
Table 44: Nexter Systems - Alliances 131
Table 45: Nexter Systems - Recent Contract Wins 132
Table 46: MBDA - Product Focus 134
Table 47: MBDA - Alliances 138
Table 48: MBDA - Recent Contract Wins 139
Table 49: Airbus Helicopters - Product Focus 141
Table50:Airbus Helicopters - Alliances 143
Table51:Airbus Helicopters - Recent Contract Wins 144
Table 52: Naval Group - Major Products and Services 146
Table 53: Naval Group - Alliances 148
Table 54: Naval Group - Recent Contract Wins 149
Table 55: Renault Truck Defense - Product Focus 151
Table 56: Renault Truck Defense - Alliances 153
Table 57: Renault Truck Defense - Recent Contract Wins 153

List of Figures
Figure 1: France Defense Expenditure (EUR Billion), 2014-2023 33
Figure 2: France Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2014-2023 33
Figure 3: France Defense Budget Allocations Excluding Pensions (EUR Billion), 2014-2023 35
Figure 4: France Defense Budget Allocations Excluding Pensions (US$ Billion), 2014-2023 35
Figure 5: France GDP Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2014-2023 38
Figure 6: France Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%),2014-2023 40
Figure 7: France Defense Capital Expenditure (EUR billion), 2014-2023 42
Figure 8: France Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2014-2023 42
Figure 9: French Defense Budget Split Between Army, Navy, Air Force and Common Services, 2014-2023 44
Figure 10: The French Defense Budget in EUR Billion - Breakdown by Services (Army, Navy, Air Force and Common Services) 2014-2023 46
Figure 11: The French Defense Budget in US$ Billion - Breakdown by Services (Army, Navy, Air Force and Common Services) 2014-2023 48
Figure 12: French Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2014-2023 50
Figure 13: French Homeland Security Expenditure (EUR billion), 2014-2023 52
Figure 14: French Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ billion), 2014-2023 52
Figure 15: Terrorism Heat Map, 2018 55
Figure 16: Terrorism Index, 2018 58
Figure 17: Benchmarking with Key Markets, 2014-2018 vs. 2019-2023 60
Figure 18: Defense Expenditure of the World's Largest Military Spenders (US$ billion), 2018 and 2023 61
Figure 19: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2018 62
Figure 20: Physical Security Market Size (US$ Billion), 2018-2023 64
Figure 21: Land-based C4ISR Market Size (US$ Billion), 2018-2023 65
Figure 22: Military-IT Networking Market Size (US$ Billion), 2018-2023 66
Figure 23: Transport Aircraft Market Size (US$ Billion), 2018-2023 67
Figure 24: France's Defense Procurements in Terms Of Their Supplier Relationships 68
Figure 25: French Defense Import Trend (US$ Million), 2012-2016 (TIV values*) 69
Figure 26: French Defense Imports by Country (%), 2012-2016 70
Figure 27: French Defense Imports by Category (%), 2012-2016 71
Figure 28: French Defense Export Trend (US$ Million), 2012-2016 (TIV values) 72
Figure 29: French Defense Exports by Country (%), 2012-2016 73
Figure 30: French Defense Exports by Category (%), 2012-2016 74
Figure 31: Industry Dynamics - Porter's Five Forces Analysis 75
Figure 32: Dassault Aviation - Revenue Trend Analysis (EUR Billion), 2012-2016 91
Figure 33: Dassault Aviation - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (EUR Million), 2012-2016 91
Figure 34: Dassault Aviation - Net income Trend Analysis (EUR Million), 2012-2016 92
Figure 35: Thales - Revenue Trend Analysis (EUR Billion), 2012-2016 105
Figure 36: Thales - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (EUR Million), 2012-2016 106
Figure 37: Thales - Net Profit Trend Analysis (EUR Million), 2012-2016 106
Figure 38: Safran Group - Revenue Trend Analysis (EUR Billion), 2012-2016 128
Figure 39: Safran Group - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (EUR Million), 2012-2016 128
Figure 40: Safran Group - Net Profit Trend Analysis (EUR Million), 2012-2016 129
Figure 41: French GDP Per Capita at Constant Prices (US$), 2015-2025 155
Figure 42: France GDP at Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2015-2025 156
Figure 43: French Exports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014 157
Figure 44: French Imports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014 158
Figure 45: French Gross National Disposable Income (US$ Billion), 2005-2013 159
Figure 46: French LCU per US$, 2015-2024 160
Figure 47: French Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion), 2005-2012 161
Figure 48: French Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% of GDP), 2005-2012 162
Figure 49: French Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as a % of GDP (LCU), 2005-2012 163
Figure 50: French Goods Exports and Imports as a % of GDP (%), 2005-2014 164
Figure 51: French Services imports and Exports as a % of GDP (%), 2005-2014 165
Figure 52: French Foreign Direct Investment, net (BoP, current US$ Billion), 2005-2014 166
Figure 53: French Net Foreign Direct Investment as a % of GDP, 2005-2014 167
Figure 54: French Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (US$ Billion), 2005-2014 168

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