Autonomous Vehicles to 2030 - A Detailed Review

Publisher Name :
Date: 01-Feb-2018
No. of pages: 189

"Autonomous vehicles to 2030" breaks down the roll-out path of the new technologies into its key parts, identifying major areas of uncertainty and analysing the latest news, and pulling everything together to provide an assessment of the real significance of recent developments through early 2018.

Report section overview


  • Context: development factors, market, end user, environmental and business developments & changes, timing and speed of technology take-up

  • Technology: developments in hardware, software, engineering and communication technology, technology roadmap 2017 to 2030

  • Regional trends: national and regional policy in Asia, Europe, North America and elsewhere

  • The industry: impact of context, technology and regional trends on the automotive industry, including finance, product development, research and partnerships in relation to traditional OEMs, suppliers and new/start-up entrant businesses.

  • Outlook: the AV industry and market out to 2030


Key issues covered


  • Business models and the new personal transport ecosystem - the auto industry as part of the new transportation system, ride-sharing, ownership models, services, incremental and disruptive development.

  • Regulation, risk and litigation - machine morality, liability, legislation, safety

  • The technical evolution of the autonomous car - enabling the next level of ADAS, safety, technology

  • Roadmap to autonomous driving - global development of research and innovation projects, state level initiatives

  • Enabling technology - power, communication, network design, software, sensors (clusters, modules, sensor fusion), HMI, mapping

  • Keys to success - value chain development, powertrain, chassis systems, interior, exterior

  • Potential for industry restructuring - the auto industry now, recent changes in transportation, new entrants and start-ups, OEM and supplier initiatives, integrating the old with the new

  • Forecast for adoption - driving factors, projected adoption by region, risks

  • Structure of the self-driving car industry

Autonomous Vehicles to 2030 - A Detailed Review

Table of Contents

Chapter 1: Introduction
1.1 Is This the Future
1.2 Definitions of Autonomous Driving
1.3 Competing Visions of Autonomous Driving
1.3.1 Ford
1.3.2 General Motors
1.3.3 Volkswagen
1.3.4 Nissan
1.3.5 Honda
1.3.6 Toyota
1.3.7 Mercedes
1.3.8 BMW
1.3.9 Tesla
1.3.10 Apple
1.3.11 Waymo
1.4 Description of the Report
1.4.1 Context
1.4.2 Autonomous Vehicle (AV) Technology
1.4.3 Major Regional AV Legislation & Policy Initiatives
1.4.4 Practical Experience of AVs on the Road
1.4.5 Implications for Automotive Industry Structure
1.4.6 The Transition to a New Transportation Sector

Chapter 2: Context
2.1 Disruption Has Started
2.2 Restructuring Surface Transport
2.3 Population Growth and Urbanisation
2.4 Market Issues
2.4.1 Changing Consumer Attitudes
2.4.2 OEMs Need to Respond
2.4.3 Market Size & Shape
2.4.4 Structural Changes
2.4.5 Summary
2.5 Greenhouse Emissions & Efficiency
2.6 Safety
2.7 Legal & Insurance Issues
2.7.1 Legal
2.7.2 Self-driving car crash highlights tricky legal question
2.7.3 Auto industry says public needs to accept AVs before laws matter
2.7.4 Chinese regulators unveil first draft of rules for AV road tests
2.7.5 China impedes foreign carmakers' autonomous tests
2.7.6 Driverless cars should be new legislative priority for Congress
2.7.7 Auto industry tells congress to pump brakes on AV regulation
2.7.8 The risks - and rewards - of smart cars
2.7.9 Insurance
2.7.10 High-tech features on new cars drive up auto insurance rates
2.7.11 Three ways self-driving cars will affect the insurance industry
2.7.12 One Insurance Company's AV research
2.7.13 When is a car an AV? Insurers set out 10 key features
2.7.14 Government urged to plug insurance black hole over AVs
2.8 Evolution vs Revolution
2.8.1 The ‘Traditional' Approach
2.8.2 Hardware
2.8.3 Software & Communications
2.8.4 Partnerships
2.8.5 The New Players' Approach
2.9 Provisional Conclusions

Chapter 3: Autonomous Vehicle (AV) Technology
3.1 Speed of Development
3.2 AV Technology Overview
3.2.1 AV System Architecture
3.3 Functional Blocks
3.3.1 Perception
3.3.2 Sensor Technology
3.3.3 Vision-based Systems (Cameras)
3.3.4 RADAR
3.3.5 LiDAR
3.3.6 Localisation
3.3.7 Sensor Fusion
3.3.8 Case Study: Computer vision algorithms for Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC)
3.3.9 Decision-Making
3.3.10 Domain Control
3.3.11 Artificial Intelligence & Deep Learning
3.3.12 High-Definition Mapping
3.3.13 Vehicular Communication (V2X)
3.3.14 Cybersecurity
3.3.15 Standards for AV Technology
3.3.16 Connectivity
3.3.17 Data Privacy
3.3.18 Cyber security
3.3.19 Maneuvering
3.3.20 Component Electrification
3.3.21 Drive-by-Wire Actuation
3.4 The Race to Acquire Skills & Technology
3.4.1 Why New Skills/Approaches?
3.4.2 Selected Announcements
3.4.3 OEMs
3.4.4 Suppliers
3.5 Driving & Riding in an Autonomous Vehicle
3.5.1 Driver Inattention/Distraction
3.5.2 Situational Awareness
3.5.3 Case Study: Tesla's Fatal Autopilot-related Crash
3.5.4 The Human Machine Interface
3.5.5 Monitoring the Occupants
3.5.6 Augmented Reality
3.5.7 HMI - Information Overload?
3.6 AV Technology Roadmap
3.6.1 2018-22
3.6.2 2023-25
3.6.3 2025-30

Chapter 4: Major Regional AV Legislation & Policy Initiatives
4.1 European Legislation & Policy Initiatives
4.1.1 Selected Europe Initiatives
4.1.2 Finland
4.1.3 France and Sweden
4.1.4 Germany
4.1.5 Spain
4.1.6 UK
4.2 North American Legislation & Policy Initiatives
4.2.1 United States
4.2.2 Selected US Initiatives
4.2.3 Federal
4.2.4 State
4.2.5 Canada
4.2.6 Selected Canadian Initiatives
4.3 Asia
4.3.1 Selected Asian Initiatives
4.3.2 China
4.3.3 Japan
4.3.4 Singapore
4.3.5 South Korea
4.3.6 Taiwan

Chapter 5: Practical Experience of AVs on the Road
5.1 European Practical Experience of AVs on the Road
5.1.1 Selected European AV Trials & Tests
5.1.2 Finland
5.1.3 France
5.1.4 Germany
5.1.5 Sweden
5.1.6 UK
5.2 North American AV Trials & Tests
5.2.1 Selected North American AV Trials & Tests
5.2.2 Canada
5.2.3 US
5.3 Asian AV Trials & Tests
5.3.1 Selected Asian AV Trials
5.3.2 China
5.3.3 Japan
5.3.4 Singapore
5.3.5 South Korea
5.3.6 Taiwan

Chapter 6: Implications for Automotive Industry Structure
6.1 Structural Features of Automotive Industry
6.1.1 Barriers to Entry
6.1.2 Auto Industry Trend
6.1.3 AV Effect
6.1.4 Minimum Efficient Scale Effect
6.1.5 Auto Industry Trend
6.1.6 AV Effect
6.1.7 Enduring Brand Differentiation
6.1.8 Auto Industry Trend
6.1.9 AV Effect
6.1.10 Dealers Control Final Mile
6.1.11 Auto Industry Trend
6.1.12 AV Effect
6.1.13 Other Factors
6.1.14 Ride- or car- sharing
6.1.15 Electric vehicles
6.2 The Position of Automotive OEMs
6.3 Legacy OEMs Shift to Contract Manufacturing?
6.4 Traditional First-Tier Suppliers
6.4.1 Key Advantages
6.4.2 Developing New Capabilities
6.4.3 Helping New Entrants
6.4.4 Software and Connectivity
6.5 Start-ups
6.6 Sub-system and Non-Automotive Suppliers
6.7 Acquisitions and Investments by OEMs
6.7.1 M&A Activity, Partnerships and Investment
6.7.2 OEM Investments and Partnerships
6.7.3 2017
6.7.4 2016
6.7.5 2015
6.7.6 New Entrants & AV integrators
6.7.7 2017
6.7.8 2016
6.7.9 2015
6.7.10 Tier 1 Suppliers
6.7.11 2017
6.7.12 2016
6.7.13 2015
6.7.14 Subsystem Manufacturer Activity
6.7.15 2017
6.7.16 2016
6.7.17 2015
6.8 Summary

Chapter 7: The Transition to a New Transportation Sector
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Diffusion of AV Technology
7.2.1 The Diffusion Model
7.2.2 Speed of Adoption - A Starting Point
7.2.3 Timing
7.2.4 Speed of Adoption - Phase 2
7.2.5 Analysis: AV Fleets will not be limited to High-Density Urban Areas
7.2.6 Diffusion Constraints
7.2.7 Connectivity
7.2.8 Cybersecurity
7.2.9 Cost
7.2.10 Availability
7.3 Will Potential AV Technology Benefits Appear?
7.3.1 Safety
7.3.2 Productivity
7.3.3 Vehicle Pricing
7.3.4 Convenience
7.3.5 Price Elasticity of Demand
7.4 How Will/Could Purchase, Ownership & Maintenance Models Change?
7.4.1 Potential Ownership Models
7.4.2 Outright Ownership
7.4.3 Shared Ownership
7.4.4 On Demand
7.4.5 Business Model
7.4.6 Vehicle Requirements
7.4.7 Maintenance, Regulation & Safety
7.4.8 Analysis: Self-driving vehicles: The "platform" business model
7.5 Who Will Make Money from AVs?
7.5.1 Traditional Competition & Branding
7.5.2 The Fight for Intellectual Property
7.5.3 The Patent Race
7.5.4 Regulators Attitudes
7.5.5 Communication Standards
7.5.6 Mapping
7.5.7 Integrated Circuit Chips
7.5.8 Service Providers
7.6 Conclusion
7.6.1 References

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