Asphalt to 2019

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Date: 31-Jul-2015
No. of pages: 396
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US demand to rise 3.3% annually through 2019

US demand for asphalt is forecast to increase 3.3 percent annually to 26.8 million tons in 2019. This is equivalent to 148.0 million barrels of asphalt, the vast majority of which is refined petroleum asphalt. Asphalt demand will be spurred by a rebound in building construction expenditures, which will boost demand for asphalt shingles and such bituminous low-slope roofing products as modified bitumen membranes. In the much larger asphalt paving segment, gains will be supported by the efforts of state and local governments to maintain the nation’s aging road and highway network. Legislative bodies are expected to allocate more funds for repair and rehabilitation work, supporting the usage of asphalt cements and asphalt emulsions.

Dominant paving segment to face budget constraints

Paving accounted for the largest end use for asphalt in 2014 with 74 percent of consumption. However, demand for asphalt in paving applications in that year was far below that of 2004. Many transportation construction departments reduced funding for infrastructure projects as tax revenues fell during the Great Recession. Funding levels remained low between 2009 and 2014 due to state and local budget concerns and hesitance about raising taxes to fund infrastructure projects. Through 2019, demand for asphalt in paving applications is forecast to advance 3.1 percent per annum to 19.6 million tons. Improving economic conditions and the need to fix and repair older roads and highways will support growth. However, more rapid advances will be checked by concerns about excessive government spending among state and local legislative bodies that will be reluctant to commit the funds necessary for large-scale highway and road construction programs.

Growth in asphalt emulsions to pace paving products

Among asphalt paving products, asphalt emulsions will exhibit the fastest growth in demand through 2019, boosted by increasing interest in in-place recycling. Asphalt emulsions can be used to recycle older pavements while minimizing asphalt consumption, thus reducing the time and cost of paving jobs. However, asphalt cement will remain the leading paving material used in the US due to the prevalence of hot-mix and warm-mix asphalts in paving jobs because of those products’ moderate cost and favorable performance properties, such as durability and good drainage.

Roofing will benefit from strong housing starts

Demand for asphalt used to make roofing and other building construction products is forecast to rise 3.7 percent annually to 7.2 million tons in 2019, stimulated by rebounding building construction expenditures. Strong growth in housing starts will boost demand for asphalt shingles, as will a more favorable environment that will encourage homeowners to replace older or worn roofing with more durable and aesthetically pleasing laminated asphalt shingles. In the nonresidential segment, the large base of structures with installed bituminous low-slope roofing will support reroofing demand.

Through 2019, refined asphalt production is forecast to rise 3.3 percent per year to 141.2 million barrels, fueled by a rebound in demand as paving activity and building construction spending grow. However, the ongoing shift in domestic crude oil production from heavy crudes -- most suitable for processing into asphalt -- to light crudes will continue to restrain growth in asphalt production. to 2019

Company Profiles

Profiles of 39 US industry players such as CertainTeed, GAF, Owens Corning, Colas, Oldcastle Materials & Vulcan Materials

Additional Information

This comprehensive study examines the US asphalt industry by product, market, and region. The study discusses both upstream asphalt (both refined petroleum asphalt and mined, native asphalt) and asphalt products used in paving, roofing, and other applications. For the purposes of this study, “asphalt” refers to upstream asphalt and “asphalt products” refers to asphalt containing products, such as paving and roofing products. Asphalt paving products considered in the study include asphalt cements, asphalt emulsions, cutback asphalts, and other patching and sealing products. Asphalt roofing products discussed in the study encompass asphalt shingles, modified bitumen membranes, mopping asphalts, standard roofing felts, and other such products as flashings and coatings.

Historical data are provided for 2004, 2009, and 2014 with forecasts for the years 2019 and 2024. “Demand” is defined as production plus imports, minus exports. This is synonymous with terms such as “sales” and “consumption.” Data are presented in thousands of short tons and millions of US dollars for asphalt products, and in millions of barrels for asphalt. Per the terms of this study, 5.5 barrels of asphalt are equal to one ton of asphalt.

Asphalt to 2019

Table of Contents

Introduction XII

I. Executive Summary 1

II. Market Environment 4
General 4
Macroeconomic Trends 4
Demographic Trends 9
Construction Trends 13
Building Construction Trends 16
Residential Buildings 19
Housing Starts 21
Housing Stock 26
Improvements & Repairs 30
Nonresidential Buildings 31
New Construction 32
Improvements & Repairs 34
Nonbuilding Construction 35
Highway Mileage 37
Public Highway Spending 39
Petroleum Industry Trends 42
Asphalt Trends 45
Asphalt Market Seasonality 48
Asphalt Products Pricing Trends 49
Refined Asphalt Pricing 50
Asphalt Products Pricing 53
Competitive Products 54
Roofing 55
Paving 56
Foreign Trade 58
Primary Asphalt 59
Asphalt Products 61

III. Asphalt Overview 63
General 63
Primary Asphalt 64
Crude Oil Feedstocks 64
Refining Capacity 65
Paving Methods 67
Hot-Mix Asphalt 67
Warm-Mix Asphalt 68
Hot- & Cold-Patch Methods 72
Other Asphalt Paving Methods 73
Bituminous Surface Treatment 73
Thin Membrane Surface Treatment 74
Granular Pavement 74
Composite Pavements 74
Open Grade Friction Courses 75
High-Friction Surface Treatments 76
Stone-Matrix Asphalt 76
Low Energy Asphalt 77
Intelligent Compaction 78
Paving Asphalt Product Developments 78
Superpave 79
Perpetual Pavements 80
Asphalt Pellets 81
Asphalt Modifiers 82
Asphalt Types Used in Roofing Products 84
Environmental Issues 85
Recycling 86
Recycled Asphalt Pavement 86
Recycled Asphalt Shingles 89
Crumb Rubber & Other Additives 91
Crumb Rubber 91
Foundry Slag 92
Fly Ash 93
Fiber Reinforcements 93
Emissions-Related Issues 94
Government Road Construction Activity 96
MAP-21 96
Highway Trust Fund 98

IV. Asphalt Supply & Demand 101
General 101
Supply & Demand 104
Asphalt Types 108
Asphalt Demand by Use 109
Paving Asphalts 113
Asphalt Cement 117
Asphalt Emulsions 118
Cutback Asphalt 119
Other Paving Asphalts 119
Roofing Asphalts 120
Other Asphalts 123

V. Asphalt Products 125
General 125
Demand Drivers 127
Paving Products 131
Asphalt Cement 135
Asphalt Emulsions 139
Cutback Asphalt 142
Other Asphalt Paving Products 144
Roofing Products 147
Asphalt Shingles 150
Modified Bitumen Roofing Membranes 154
Mopping Asphalts 157
Standard Asphaltic Roofing Felts 160
Other Asphalt Roofing Products 163
Other Asphalt Products 166
Construction Products 167
Nonconstruction Products 171

VI. Markets 173
General 173
Construction 175
Residential Building 180
New 183
Improvement & Repair 187
Nonresidential Building 191
New 194
Improvement & Repair 196
Nonbuilding 199
New 204
Improvement & Repair 206
Nonconstruction Markets 211

VII. Regions 213
General 213
Regional Demographic & Economic Activity 214
Population Patterns 215
Economic Outlook 218
Construction Activity 221
Housing Trends 224
Refined Asphalt Production by Region 228
Regional Asphalt Demand 232
Northeast 235
New England 237
Middle Atlantic 239
Midwest 241
East North Central 244
West North Central 247
South 250
South Atlantic 252
East South Central 255
West South Central 257
West 260
Mountain 263
Pacific 265

VIII. Industry Structure 269
General 269
Industry Concentration 270
Refined Asphalt Capacity Share 272
Asphalt Paving Products Market Share 275
Asphalt Roofing Products Market Share 280
Manufacturing 284
Marketing & Distribution 286
Mergers & Acquisitions 291
Cooperative Agreements 293
Company Profiles 296
Alon USA Energy Incorporated 297
American Gilsonite Company 299
APAC-Texas, see CRH
ArrMaz Custom Chemicals Incorporated 301
Atlas Roofing, see Hood Companies Axeon Specialty Products LLC 303
Barrett Paving Materials, see Bouygues BASF SE 305
Berkshire Hathaway Incorporated 307
Bouygues SA 310
BP plc 314
Branscome Companies, see Bouygues Bridgestone Corporation 316
Building Materials Corporation of America 318
Callanan Industries, see CRH Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP 321
CertainTeed, see Saint-Gobain Chalmette Refining, see Exxon Mobil Chevron Corporation 323
CHS Incorporated 324
Colas, see Bouygues Colaska, see Bouygues Cornejo & Sons, see Summit Materials Crafco, see Ergon
CRH plc 325
DAP Products, see RPM International Delek US Holdings Incorporated 334
Delta Companies, see Bouygues Des Moines Asphalt and Paving, see CRH Dolomite Group, see CRH DuPont (EI) de Nemours 336
Ergon Incorporated 337
Euclid Chemical, see RPM International Eugene Sand & Gravel, see CRH Evans Construction, see CRH Exxon Mobil Corporation 341
Firestone Building Products, see Bridgestone Flint Hills Resources, see Koch Industries Fortifiber Corporation 343
GAF, see Building Materials of America GuardTop, see Western Emulsions Hamilton-Hinkle Paving, see Summit Materials Hamm, see Summit Materials HeidelbergCement AG 345
Henry Company 347
Hinkle Contracting, see Summit Materials HollyFrontier Corporation 350
Hood Companies 352
Hunt Consolidated Incorporated 354
ICON Materials, see CRH Imperial Oil, see Exxon Mobil Inland Asphalt, see CRH Johns Manville, see Berkshire Hathaway Koch Industries Incorporated 356
LafargeHolcim Limited 357
Lehigh Hanson, see HeidelbergCement Lion Oil, see Delek US Holdings Mapei SpA 360
Marathon Petroleum Corporation 362
Michigan Paving & Materials, see CRH MidSouth Paving, see CRH NK Asphalt Partners, see HollyFrontier
NuStar Energy LP 364
Ohio Valley Asphalt, see Summit Materials Oldcastle Materials, see CRH Owens Corning 366
Pennsy Supply, see CRH Phillips 66 369
Pike Industries, see CRH PJ Keating, see CRH Preferred Materials, see CRH Reeves Construction, see Bouygues Republic Powdered Metals, see RPM International RK Hall Construction, see Summit Materials Royal Dutch Shell plc 370
RPM International Incorporated 372
Saint-Gobain 377
Shell Oil, see Royal Dutch Shell Shelly, see CRH Sinclair Oil Corporation 381
Sloan Construction, see Bouygues Staker Parsons Companies, see CRH Summit Materials LLC 382
TAMKO Building Products Incorporated 385
Tilcon Connecticut, see CRH Tremco, see RPM International Tricor Refining, see Ergon Trumbull Asphalt, see Owens Corning UNIQUE Paving Materials Corporation 388
United Refining Company 390
Valero Energy Corporation 391
Vulcan Materials Company 392
Weatherproofing Technologies, see RPM International Western Emulsions Incorporated 393
WRB Refining, see Phillips 66
Wright Asphalt Products, see Alon USA Energy Ziegler Chemical & Mineral Corporation 395

List of Tables

Section I -- Executive Summary
Summary Table 3

Section II -- Market Environment
1 Macroeconomic Indicators 9
2 Population & Households 13
3 Construction Expenditures 16
4 Building Construction Expenditures 19
5 Residential Building Construction Expenditures 21
6 New Housing Indicators 26
7 Housing Stock by Type 29
8 Residential Improvement & Repair Expenditures 31
9 Nonresidential Building Construction Expenditures 34
10 Nonresidential Building Improvement & Repair Expenditures 35
11 Nonbuilding Construction Expenditures 37
12 US Highway Mileage 39
13 Public Highway Spending 42
14 Refined Petroleum Products Consumption & Production 45
15 Asphalt Market, 2004-2014 47
16 Asphalt Products Pricing 50
17 Asphalt Products Foreign Trade 62

Section IV -- Asphalt Supply & Demand
1 Asphalt Supply & Demand 108
2 Asphalt Demand by Use 112
3 Paving Demand for Asphalt 117
4 Roofing Demand for Asphalt 123
5 Demand for Asphalt in Other Uses 124

Section V -- Asphalt Products
1 Asphalt Products Demand 126
2 Use of Asphalt in Paving Products 134
3 Asphalt Cement 139
4 Asphalt Emulsions -- Asphalt Content 142
5 Cutback Asphalt -- Asphalt Content 144
6 Other Asphalt Paving Products -- Asphalt Content 146
7 Use of Asphalt in Roofing Products 149
8 Asphalt Shingles -- Asphalt Content 153
9 Modified Bitumen Roofing Membranes -- Asphalt Content 157
10 Mopping Asphalt Demand 160
11 Standard Asphalt Roofing Felts -- Asphalt Content 163
12 Other Asphalt Roofing Products -- Asphalt Content 166
13 Asphalt Content in Other Products 167

Section VI -- Markets
1 Asphalt Demand by Market 174
2 Construction Demand for Asphalt by Market & Application 179
3 Residential Building Market for Asphalt by Product & Application 183
4 New Residential Building Market for Asphalt 186
5 Residential Improvement & Repair Asphalt Demand 191
6 Nonresidential Building Market for Asphalt by Product & Application 194
7 New Nonresidential Building Market for Asphalt 196
8 Nonresidential Building Improvement & Repair Market for Asphalt 199
9 Nonbuilding Construction Market for Asphalt by Product & Application 204
10 New Nonbuilding Construction Market for Asphalt 206
11 Nonbuilding Improvement & Repair Market for Asphalt 211
12 Asphalt Demand in Nonconstruction Markets 212

Section VII -- Regions
1 Population by Region 218
2 Gross Domestic Product by Region 221
3 Construction Expenditures by Region 224
4 Regional Housing Indicators 227
5 US Refined Asphalt Production by Region, 2014 231
6 Asphalt Demand by Region & Application 234
7 Northeast Asphalt Demand by Subregion & Application 237
8 New England Asphalt Demand 239
9 Middle Atlantic Asphalt Demand 241
10 Midwest Asphalt Demand by Subregion & Application 244
11 East North Central Asphalt Demand 247
12 West North Central Asphalt Demand 249
13 South Asphalt Demand by Subregion & Application 252
14 South Atlantic Asphalt Demand 255
15 East South Central Asphalt Demand 257
16 West South Central Asphalt Demand 260
17 West Asphalt Demand by Subregion & Application 262
18 Mountain Asphalt Demand 265
19 Pacific Asphalt Demand 268

Section VIII -- Industry Structure
1 US Asphalt Refining Capacity by Refiner, 2014 274
2 Asphalt Paving Products Market Leaders, 2014 279
3 Asphalt Roofing Products Market Leaders, 2014 283
4 Selected Acquisitions & Divestitures 293
5 Selected Cooperative Agreements 295

List of Charts

Section II -- Market Environment
1 Year of Construction of Housing Stock, 2014 29
2 Asphalt Market, 2005-2014 48
3 Asphalt Market Seasonality 49

Section IV -- Asphalt Supply & Demand
1 Refined Asphalt Flow Chart 103
2 Asphalt Demand by Use, 2014 113

Section V -- Asphalt Products
1 Use of Asphalt in Paving Products, 2014 135
2 Use of Asphalt in Roofing Products, 2014 150

Section VI -- Markets
1 Construction Demand for Asphalt by Market, 2014 180

Section VII -- Regions
1 US Refined Asphalt Production by Region, 2014 232
2 Asphalt Demand by Region, 2014 235

Section VIII -- Industry Structure
1 Asphalt Paving Products Market Share, 2014 280
2 Asphalt Roofing Products Market Share, 2014 284

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