Zimbabwe Mining Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 21-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 53

BMI View: Zimbabwe's mining industry will grow steadily in absolute terms over our forecast period

through to 2020 as production increases across the key platinum and diamond mining sub-sectors.

Latest Developments & Structural Trends

? Zimbabwe is richly endowed with deposits of chrome, gold, nickel, diamonds and platinum, among other

minerals. Its gold reserves are among the largest in Africa, while it has the world's second-largest

platinum reserves. Diamond reserves are measured to be the second-largest globally after Russia.

Development in these key markets together with a gradual more stable political and economic climate has

seen the country's status as major global producers strengthen in recent years. In terms of overall output,

Zimbabwe is challenging the world's largest platinum producers, Russia and South Africa, while a recent

reduction in taxes for smaller gold miners will see production rise at almost a double-digit rate this year.

? The mining sector will nevertheless face increasing challenges to its current growth trend, however.

Political and economic risk remains a particular concern from both a regulatory and investment point of

view and the ZANU-PF will continue to spell trouble for the future of the industry.

? Zimbabwe is posed to challenge Russia and South Africa as the world's leading platinum producer over

the coming years as new investment by both existing and new players allows the country to capitalise on

its considerable reserves, which are the second largest in the world. Coincidentally, the country will see

its status lifted by slowing production growth in neighbouring South Africa, where serious difficulties as

a consequence of labour unrest and high energy costs will mean that the world's largest platinum

producer will experience major difficulties in maintaining production levels.

? We forecast Zimbabwe to experience a temporary boost in gold production this year as the impact of a

recent reduction in gold mining levies leads to an increase in activity by smaller mining firms.

Zimbabwe's gold production rose by 25% during Q115 to 4,180kg, according to the country's Chamber of

Mines.

? In terms of volume, the African countries for which we forecast production (Angola, Botswana, DRC,

Namibia, South Africa, Tanzania and Zimbabwe) to total 4.9 million (mn) carats over our forecast period

to 2020, dwarfing other regions' additional output.

? While a more consolidated mining landscape may help in raising the country's overall production levels,

it remains to be seen the impact it has on deterring foreign investment into the sector. The recent

consolidation highlights the government's increasingly hands-on role in diamond extraction and follows

the introduction of a black economic-empowerment programme, which requires foreign-owned

companies, including mines, to sell 51% of their shares to black Zimbabweans.

Zimbabwe Mining Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Zimbabwe Mining Industry Value 7
Latest Developments & Structural Trends 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Platinum: Growth To Remain Positive 11
Latest Developments 11
Table: Platinum Production (Zimbabwe 2014-2020) 11
Table: Zimbabwe - Major Platinum Projects 11
Structural Trends 12
Refinery Decision Finally Made 13
Gold: Juniors To Drive Output 15
Latest Developments 15
Table: Gold Production Forecast (Zimbabwe 2014-2020) 15
Table: Key Gold Projects In Zimbabwe 15
Structural Trends 16
Diamonds: Significant Growth Potential, Despite Unfavourable Environment 19
Latest Developments 19
Table: Diamond Production (Zimbabwe 2014-2020) 19
Structural Trends 21
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 24
Zimbabwe - Risk/Reward Index 24
Rewards 24
Industry Rewards 24
Country Rewards 24
Risks 24
Industry Risks 24
Country Risks 24
Africa - Risk/Reward Index 25
Key Takeaways 25
Latest Revisions 26
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Indices 27
Regulatory Development 28
Regulatory Underperformance 28
Trade & Investment Risk Analysis 29
Commodities Forecast 33
Commodities Outlook 33
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts 33
Competitive Landscape 35
Table: Southern Africa - Largest Listed Mining Companies 36
Company Profile 37
Global Company Strategy - Impala Platinum - Q3 2016 37
Company Strategy 39
Table: Impala Platinum - Key Financial Data 41
Regional Overview 42
Sub-Saharan Africa Overview 42
Table: SSA - Government Involvement In Mining Sector 48
Methodology 50
Industry Forecast Methodology 50
Sources 51
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 52
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 53

List of Tables

Table: Zimbabwe Mining Industry Value
Table: Platinum Production (Zimbabwe 2014-2020)
Table: Zimbabwe - Major Platinum Projects
Table: Gold Production Forecast (Zimbabwe 2014-2020)
Table: Key Gold Projects In Zimbabwe
Table: Diamond Production (Zimbabwe 2014-2020)
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Indices
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts
Table: Southern Africa - Largest Listed Mining Companies
Table: Impala Platinum - Key Financial Data
Table: SSA - Government Involvement In Mining Sector
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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