Zimbabwe Agribusiness Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 14-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 64

BMI View: We expect Zimbabwe to remain a net corn importer over the longer term. Over the next five

years, we expect production of the grain to demonstrate moderate growth, although production will remain

well below the totals seen in the early 2000s and much of the growth will be in the form of a recovery. We

are more optimistic regarding the sugar sector, where access to key markets and potential for productivity

improvements will drive production over the long term. Although we forecast a domestic sugar market

surplus, the sector remains below potential and our forecasts are relatively subdued despite our

expectations for higher average prices than current levels in the coming years.

Key Forecasts

? Corn production to 2019/20: 83% on the 2015/16 level to 919,000 tonnes. We project relatively strong

growth over the long term, but the country will remain a net importer, as almost all of this growth is due

to base effects.

? Sugar production to 2019/20: 11% on the 2015/16 level to 459,000 tonnes. An overall improvement in

sugarcane yields, greater efficiency of mills and long-term access to export markets will be key drivers of

production growth.

? 2016 real GDP growth: 0.7%, up from -1.4% in 2015, forecast to average 3.6% between 2016 and

2020.

? 2016 consumer price deflation: 1.4% annual average (compared to -2.4% in 2015).

Zimbabwe Agribusiness Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Grains Outlook 11
Latest Updates 11
Table: Zimbabwe - Grains Production & Consumption Outlook 11
Table: Risks To Outlook 12
Structural Trends 12
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Zimbabwe 2012-2020) 13
Sugar Outlook 14
Latest Updates 14
Table: Zimbabwe - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook 14
Table: Risks To Outlook 15
Structural Trends 15
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Zimbabwe 2012-2020) 15
Commodity Price Analysis 16
Global - Global Commodities Strategy 16
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 16
Featured Analysis 18
Industry Trend Analysis 18
Table: Southern Africa - Drought Impact On Corn Production 20
Table: Corn - Production Balance & Self-Sufficiency (2012-2020) 31
Upstream Analysis 32
Africa GM Outlook 32
Africa Machinery Outlook 39
Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions 39
Africa Fertiliser Outlook 44
Regional Overview 51
Middle East & Africa Regional Overview 51
Competitive Landscape 57
Table: Main Agribusiness Companies 57
Demographic Forecast 58
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Zimbabwe 1990-2025) 59
Table: Key Population Ratios (Zimbabwe 1990-2025) 59
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Zimbabwe 1990-2025) 60
Table: Population By Age Group (Zimbabwe 1990-2025) 60
Table: Population By Age Group % (Zimbabwe 1990-2025) 61
Methodology 63
Industry Forecast Methodology 63
Sector-Specific Methodology 64

List of Tables

Table: Zimbabwe - Grains Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Zimbabwe 2012-2020)
Table: Zimbabwe - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Zimbabwe 2012-2020)
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
Table: Southern Africa - Drought Impact On Corn Production
Table: Corn - Production Balance & Self-Sufficiency (2012-2020)
Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions
Table: Main Agribusiness Companies
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Zimbabwe 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Zimbabwe 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Zimbabwe 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Zimbabwe 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Zimbabwe 1990-2025)
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