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BMI View: We expect Zimbabwe to remain a net corn importer over the longer term. Over the next five
years, we expect production of the grain to demonstrate moderate growth, although production will remain
well below the totals seen in the early 2000s and much of the growth will be in the form of a recovery. We
are more optimistic regarding the sugar sector, where access to key markets and potential for productivity
improvements will drive production over the long term. Although we forecast a domestic sugar market
surplus, the sector remains below potential and our forecasts are relatively subdued despite our
expectations for higher average prices than current levels in the coming years.
? Corn production to 2019/20: 83% on the 2015/16 level to 919,000 tonnes. We project relatively strong
growth over the long term, but the country will remain a net importer, as almost all of this growth is due
to base effects.
? Sugar production to 2019/20: 11% on the 2015/16 level to 459,000 tonnes. An overall improvement in
sugarcane yields, greater efficiency of mills and long-term access to export markets will be key drivers of
? 2016 real GDP growth: 0.7%, up from -1.4% in 2015, forecast to average 3.6% between 2016 and
? 2016 consumer price deflation: 1.4% annual average (compared to -2.4% in 2015).