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BMI View: Yemen remains mired in political violence and economic crisis regardless of a peace agreement
signed between Houthi rebels and the Saudi-backed government. The ongoing civil conflict has put the
country's oil and gas industry at a standstill as virtually all oil and gas companies and facilities have
suspended their operations. With no sustainable resolution of the conflict in sight, we hold our view that
above-ground risks will continue to weigh on short-term production and challenge investment prospects
over the long term.
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
- During 2016-2025, we forecast Yemen's oil and gas reserves to decline very modestly as both exploration
and production activities have been suspended or operate at minimal capacity.
The country's security situation will be the key determinant of its oil production volumes over the coming
decade. With little improvement in this area, we forecast production to decline to 12,500b/d in 2016 and
remain similarly low for the foreseeable future.
We forecast refined products output to stand at 35,060b/d in 2016. While we expect to see a production
pick up in 2017 and 2018, there are significant downside risks to our forecast arising from fragile security