Yemen Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 05-Oct-2016
No. of pages: 69

BMI View: Yemen remains mired in political violence and economic crisis regardless of a peace agreement

signed between Houthi rebels and the Saudi-backed government. The ongoing civil conflict has put the

country's oil and gas industry at a standstill as virtually all oil and gas companies and facilities have

suspended their operations. With no sustainable resolution of the conflict in sight, we hold our view that

above-ground risks will continue to weigh on short-term production and challenge investment prospects

over the long term.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

- During 2016-2025, we forecast Yemen's oil and gas reserves to decline very modestly as both exploration

and production activities have been suspended or operate at minimal capacity.

• The country's security situation will be the key determinant of its oil production volumes over the coming

decade. With little improvement in this area, we forecast production to decline to 12,500b/d in 2016 and

remain similarly low for the foreseeable future.

• We forecast refined products output to stand at 35,060b/d in 2016. While we expect to see a production

pick up in 2017 and 2018, there are significant downside risks to our forecast arising from fragile security

environment.

Yemen Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Yemen 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 8
Oil & Gas SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Upstream Projects 13
Table: Key Upstream Projects 13
Upstream Production - Oil 15
Latest Updates 15
Structural Trends 15
Table: Oil Production (Yemen 2014-2019) 17
Table: Oil Production (Yemen 2020-2025) 17
Upstream Production - Gas 18
Latest Updates 18
Structural Trends 18
Table: Gas Production (Yemen 2014-2019) 19
Table: Gas Production (Yemen 2020-2025) 20
Refining 21
Latest Updates 21
Structural Trends 21
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Yemen 2014-2019) 22
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Yemen 2020-2025) 23
Refined Fuels Consumption 24
Latest Updates 24
Structural Trends 24
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Yemen 2014-2019) 25
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Yemen 2020-2025) 26
Gas Consumption 27
Latest Updates 27
Structural Trends 27
Table: Gas Consumption (Yemen 2014-2019) 28
Table: Gas Consumption (Yemen 2020-2025) 28
Trade - Oil 29
Crude Oil Trade 29
Latest Updates 29
Structural Trends 29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Yemen 2014-2020) 30
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Yemen 2020-2025) 31
Fuels Trade 31
Latest Updates 31
Structural Trends 31
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Yemen 2014-2019) 32
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Yemen 2020-2025) 33
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) 34
Latest Updates 34
Structural Trends 34
Table: Gas Net Exports (Yemen 2014-2019) 36
Table: Gas Net Exports (Yemen 2020-2025) 37
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 38
Middle East - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 38
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 38
Upstream: Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment 39
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 39
Downstream: Limited Opportunities 41
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 41
Yemen - Risk/Reward Index 44
Market Overview 46
Yemen Energy Market Overview 46
Regulatory Structure 46
Fiscal Regime 47
Table: Yemen - Upstream Tax Regime 47
Licensing Regime 47
Table: Yemen - Contracts and Licensing Regime 47
Licensing Rounds 47
Table: Yemen's 2013 Acreage Offer 48
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 49
Oil Refineries 49
Table: Oil Refineries In Yemen 49
Oil Pipelines 50
Oil Terminal 50
LNG Terminal 50
Regional Overview 52
Middle East Oil & Gas Regional Overview 52
Oil Production: Output On Upward Trajectory 52
Oil Consumption: Gas And Subsidy Reform Tempering Demand 55
Table: Gasoline-95 Pump Price June 2015 & March 2016 (USD/Litre) 55
Refining Capacity: Mega Refineries To Outcompete 57
Gas Production: Upstream Focus Swaying To Gas 58
Gas Consumption: Industrial Growth And Power Drive Demand 60
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Production, Refining Capacity & Trade 61
Glossary 62
Table: Glossary Of Terms 62
Methodology 64
Industry Forecast Methodology 64
Source 66
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 66
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 68
Table: Weighting 69

List of Tables

Table: Headline Forecasts (Yemen 2014-2020)
Table: Key Upstream Projects
Table: Oil Production (Yemen 2014-2019)
Table: Oil Production (Yemen 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Production (Yemen 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Production (Yemen 2020-2025)
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Yemen 2014-2019)
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Yemen 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Yemen 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Yemen 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Consumption (Yemen 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Consumption (Yemen 2020-2025)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Yemen 2014-2020)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Yemen 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Yemen 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Yemen 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Yemen 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Yemen 2020-2025)
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Table: Yemen - Upstream Tax Regime
Table: Yemen - Contracts and Licensing Regime
Table: Yemen's 2013 Acreage Offer
Table: Oil Refineries In Yemen
Table: Gasoline-95 Pump Price June 2015 & March 2016 (USD/Litre)
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Production, Refining Capacity & Trade
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting
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