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BMI View: Even with a peace deal to the civil war in sight, the security and political instability in Yemen,
which has brought the economy to a virtual standstill, means it will take years for industry to recover. The
precious hydrocarbons sector is in meltdown, severely affecting public income. In an environment so hostile
to investment, development and operations, we expect the construction sector to remain deflated for some
time, after which only volatile and muted recovery can begin.
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
? We expect a resolution to the conflict in Yemen in the coming quarters. Over the long term we highlight
the absence of a financially viable Yemeni state unless substantial overseas support is forthcoming.
? We maintain a pessimistic view of construction industry growth, with an estimate for 2015 of -22.1% and
a forecast of about -6% in 2016, with only a modest base affected recovery expected from 2017-2018.
We forecast a deep economic recession until 2019.
The Yemeni hydrocarbons sector is at a virtual standstill, with pipelines and refineries under frequent
attacks. In 2017 we expect the country to become a net oil importer.
While little, if any, infrastructure development is ongoing, Saudi Arabia announced plans in September to
bypass the Hormuz Strait by building a water canal through Yemen to the Persian Gulf.
Significant reconstruction and the recommencement of delayed projects are a rare bright spot on the
horizon, with Middle Eastern and Asian investors likely to lead the recovery.