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This study analyzes the world tractor industry. It presents historical demand data (2001, 2006, 2011) with forecasts for 2016 and 2021 by market (e.g., agriculture, construction, mining, commercial and consumer), tractor type (e.g., wheeled, crawler, pedestrian-controlled), world region and major country. The study also considers market environment factors, details industry structure, evaluates company market share and profiles industry participants.
World demand to rise 6.8% annually through 2016
World demand for tractors is expected to increase 6.8 percent per annum through 2016 to $122 billion. A moderation in sales growth in many large, developing countries — particularly Brazil, China, and India — after a lengthy period of rapid gains will counterbalance a strong recovery in the US, Western Europe, and Japan from the effects of the 2008-2009 global economic recession.
Growth in China to lead Asia/Pacific gains
Demand for tractors in the Asia/Pacific region will be more than twice that of any other region in 2016, with China alone comprising 31 percent of the global total. Healthy population increases and economic growth in China and other developing Asian nations like India and Thailand will drive an expansion in construction activity in these countries and place heightened pressure on their agricultural sectors to become more efficient and productive, boosting associated tractor sales. Central and South America will post strong sales gains as well, due primarily to the large and increasingly mechanized agricultural sectors in Brazil and Argentina.
In the mature markets of the industrialized world, sales of tractors will continue to be largely determined by demand for replacement machinery and the efficiency gains provided by newer, more sophisticated equipment. During the 2008-2009 economic crisis, many tractor operators in the agriculture, mining, and construction sectors delayed replacing older machinery, and the inherent time lag in each of these markets in response to improving economic circumstances will govern tractor sales growth patterns going forward. While the mining and construction sectors tend to respond more slowly to changes in economic conditions due to the large amounts of capital that must be committed, the agricultural sector usually responds much more quickly. As a result, 2011 was the beginning of a spike in demand for agricultural tractors in many developed nations, while sales of mining and construction tractors had not yet rebounded to the same extent. This release of pent-up demand will act as a restraint on market growth for a number of years, until the start of a new replacement cycle.
Agricultural tractor sales to retain largest product share
Agricultural tractors will continue to account for the largest share of product sales in 2016, followed by tractors for construction and mining applications. However, due primarily to high 2011 levels of demand and the timing of replacement cycles in the US, Japan, and Western Europe, global agricultural tractor sales growth will slow through 2016. Greater construction expenditures and mining output in many areas of the world — including the US, China, and India — will drive healthy gains in these market segments.
Company Profiles for 40 global Industry competitors including AGCO, caterpillar, CNH Global, John Deere, and Komatsu
This study analyzes global supply and demand for off-highway tractors. Tractors are defined as self-propelled machinery designed with the primary purpose of providing a high tractive effort at low speed in order to push or pull an attached implement or trailer. The specific products covered are:
- Agricultural tractors
- Tractors used in the construction and mining industries, including angledozers, backhoe loaders, bulldozers, wheel loaders, graders, scrapers, and skid-steer loaders
- Tractors used in commercial and/or consumer applications, including lawn and garden tractors, compact and subcompact utility tractors, and compact loaders
- Other tractor units, including pushback and baggage tractors used at airports and tractors used in ports for material handling purposes.
Excluded from the scope of the study are all tractors used for transportation purposes, including road tractor-trailer units and railway tractors.
Also excluded is machinery designed primarily to provide power in a different way — such as excavators, telehandlers, or compactors — even if that machinery can be used in a secondary manner to push or pull an implement. To distinguish them from riding lawnmowers, lawn and garden tractors are defined as units with a seat and a frontally mounted engine, regardless of whether the unit features a fixed cutting deck.
Historical data for 2001, 2006, and 2011 and forecasts for 2016 and 2021 are provided for demand by market (agricultural, construction, commercial and consumer, and other) and by product type (wheeled, crawler, and pedestrian controlled), total shipments, and net exports on a country-by-country basis in millions of current US dollars, including inflation. Also provided at the world level is tractor demand by product type in thousands of units. The term “demand” actually refers to “apparent consumption” and is defined as shipments (used interchangeably with the terms “production,” “output,” and “supply”) from tractor manufacturing facilities located in a country plus imports to that country minus exports. It is also referred to as “market,” “sales,” and consumption.”
Data on global tractor supply and demand are derived from differing sources and developed from statistical relationships. As a result, variations in this type of international reporting are common, and statistics presented in this study are historically consistent but may differ from other sources. Definitional differences, inventory accumulation, goods-in-transit, and undistributed exports might cause these variances. In order to minimize the impact of such discrepancies, total world tractor imports and exports have been assumed to balance. Due to independent rounding, tabular details may not add to totals. Ratios are rounded to the nearest significant digit. All dollar values cited for the industry are at the basic manufacturer level.
In addition, major tractor manufacturers worldwide are identified and profiled, and key competitive variables are discussed. This report is framed within the world tractor industry’s economic, market, and technological environments, and emphasizes environmental variables shaping tractors supply and demand patterns, such as agricultural production, construction spending, and fixed investment. Market share data by company for the world tractor market presented in the “Industry Structure” section are estimated based on consultation with multiple sources. These include annual reports, 10-K reports, security analyst reports, corporate product literature, and interviews with industry participants and competitors.