World Housing to 2019

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Date: 31-Jul-2015
No. of pages: 242
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World demand to grow 3% annually through 2019

Worldwide construction of new housing units is forecast to increase 3.0 percent per annum to 62.6 million units in 2019. While global population growth is fore-cast to decelerate, declines in average household size will still allow the number of households in the world to increase 1.6 percent annually through 2019, boosting demand for new housing units. In addition, increased rural-to-urban migration, especially in developing countries, will spur construction of new housing units in urban areas.

North America, Western Europe to be fastest growing markets

North America and Western Europe are expected to experience the most rapid growth in new housing unit demand through 2019. In both cases, gains will rise from depressed 2014 bases, with many countries recovering from the collapse of housing bubbles. Several of the countries that experienced the most severe downturns, including the United States and some countries in Western Europe, will experience double-digit annual increases in new housing units, although in most cases 2019 levels will remain below those in 2004.

Multifamily housing units to outpace single-family units

On a global basis, multifamily units are forecast to experience faster gains in new construction than single-family units through 2019, the result of increasing urbanization in many developing countries. Rural-to-urban migrations will be particularly strong in the two most popu-lous regions -- Africa/Mideast and Asia/Pacific -- and those new urban residents will heighten demand for multifamily housing. Construction of new multifamily units worldwide is forecast to advance 3.7 percent per annum through 2019 with the Asia/Pacific and Africa/Mideast regions accounting for over 90 percent of the increases.

Asia/Pacific housing stock to remain dominant, Africa/ Mideast region to lead gains

In 2014, the world housing stock was 2.1 billion units. The global housing stock is expected to outpace household formation through the forecast period, reaching over 2.2 billion units in 2019. The Asia/Pacific region will continue to account for slightly more than one-half of the world’s housing stock through the forecast period. The Africa/Mideast region had the second largest regional housing stock in 2014 at 17 percent of the worldwide total. It is expected to register the fastest regional housing stock growth through 2019, spurred by declining household sizes and rural-to-urban migration.

Average new housing unit size to rise through 2019

Because of the unusually low levels of housing construction in 2014 in North America and Western Europe, where units tend to be larger, the global average size of a new housing unit was lower in 2014 than it was in 2009 or 2004. The average new unit size is projected to rise slightly to 91 square meters in 2019. In-creasing incomes (particularly in developing countries) will support gains in average size. New units are generally larger than those in the existing stock, reflecting global rising per capita incomes and standards of living.

Additional Information

This Economics Department study considers the world housing market for six world regions and 22 major national markets. It estimates both the size of the housing stock and the level of construction of new housing units by type of dwelling unit (single-family and multifamily). In the US and Canadian markets, detail is provided for manufactured housing (factory-built housing assembled on a fixed chassis for transport) in the total of stock and new units of single-family housing.

Historical data for 2004, 2009, and 2014 and forecasts for 2019 and 2024 are provided on a country-by-country basis for housing stock and new housing construction, both measured in terms of units and i n area of floor space. Tabular details may not always add to totals due to rounding.

World Housing to 2019

Table of Contents

Introduction IX

I. Executive Summary 1

II. Market Environment 4
General 4
World Economic Overview 5
Recent Historical Trends 5
World Economic Outlook 7
World Demographic Overview 9
Population 9
Urban Population 11
Households 14
Per Capita GDP 16
World Residential Building Construction Expenditures 17
Legislation & Regulatory Considerations 20

III. Overview 23
General 23
Housing Stock by Region 23
Housing Stock by Housing Type 28
Housing Quality 30
Informal Housing 31
Access to Water & Sewage Facilities 33
Access to Electricity 39
New Housing Demand by Region 41
New Housing Demand by Type 43

IV. North America 46
General 46
Housing Stock 47
New Housing Units 50
United States 52
Canada 61
Mexico 67

V. Western Europe 74
General 74
Housing Stock 75
New Housing Units 78
Germany 80
France 86
United Kingdom 92
Italy 98
Spain 103
Other Western Europe 109

VI. Asia/Pacific 116
General 116
Housing Stock 117
New Housing Units 120
China 122
India 130
Indonesia 136
Japan 141
Thailand 147
South Korea 153
Australia 159
Taiwan 164
Other Asia/Pacific 168

VII. Other Regions 176
Central & South America 176
Brazil 181
Argentina 187
Other Central & South America 192
Eastern Europe 197
Russia 203
Poland 208
Other Eastern Europe 213
Africa/Mideast 219
Turkey 224
South Africa 230
Other Africa/Mideast 236

List of Tables

Section I -- Executive Summary
Summary Table 3

Section II -- Market Environment
1 World Gross Domestic Product by Region 9
2 World Population by Region 11
3 World Urban Population by Region 13
4 World Households by Region 15
5 World Per Capita Gross Domestic Product by Region 17
6 World Residential Building Construction Expenditures by Region 20

Section III -- Overview
1 World Housing Stock by Region 26
2 World Housing Stock by Type 30
3 World New Housing Units by Region 42
4 World New Housing Units by Type 45

Section IV -- North America
1 North America: Housing Stock 49
2 North America: New Housing Units 52
3 United States: Housing Stock 56
4 United States: New Housing Units 61
5 Canada: Housing Stock 64
6 Canada: New Housing Units 67
7 Mexico: Housing Stock 70
8 Mexico: New Housing Units 73

Section V -- Western Europe
1 Western Europe: Housing Stock 77
2 Western Europe: New Housing Units 80
3 Germany: Housing Stock 83
4 Germany: New Housing Units 86
5 France: Housing Stock 89
6 France: New Housing Units 92
7 United Kingdom: Housing Stock 95
8 United Kingdom: New Housing Units 98
9 Italy: Housing Stock 101
10 Italy: New Housing Units 103
11 Spain: Housing Stock 106
12 Spain: New Housing Units 109
13 Other Western Europe: Housing Stock 112
14 Other Western Europe: New Housing Units 115

Section VI -- ASIA/Pacific
1 Asia/Pacific: Housing Stock 119
2 Asia/Pacific: New Housing Units 122
3 China: Housing Stock 126
4 China: New Housing Units 130
5 India: Housing Stock 133
6 India: New Housing Units 136
7 Indonesia: Housing Stock 139
8 Indonesia: New Housing Units 141
9 Japan: Housing Stock 144
10 Japan: New Housing Units 147
11 Thailand: Housing Stock 150
12 Thailand: New Housing Units 152
13 South Korea: Housing Stock 156
14 South Korea: New Housing Units 158
15 Australia: Housing Stock 161
16 Australia: New Housing Units 163
17 Taiwan: Housing Stock 166
18 Taiwan: New Housing Units 168
19 Other Asia/Pacific: Housing Stock 171
20 Other Asia/Pacific: New Housing Units 174
21 Other Asia/Pacific: Housing Stock & New Housing Units by Country 175

Section VII -- Other Regions
1 Central & South America: Housing Stock 178
2 Central & South America: New Housing Units 180
3 Brazil: Housing Stock 184
4 Brazil: New Housing Units 186
5 Argentina: Housing Stock 189
6 Argentina: New Housing Units 192
7 Other Central & South America: Housing Stock 194
8 Other Central & South America: New Housing Units 197
9 Eastern Europe: Housing Stock 200
10 Eastern Europe: New Housing Units 203
11 Russia: Housing Stock 206
12 Russia: New Housing Units 208
13 Poland: Housing Stock 211
14 Poland: New Housing Units 213
15 Other Eastern Europe: Housing Stock 216
16 Other Eastern Europe: New Housing Units 218
17 Africa/Mideast: Housing Stock 221
18 Africa/Mideast: New Housing Units 224
19 Turkey: Housing Stock 228
20 Turkey: New Housing Units 230
21 South Africa: Housing Stock 233
22 South Africa: New Housing Units 235
23 Other Africa/Mideast: Housing Stock 238
24 Other Africa/Mideast: New Housing Units 240
25 Other Africa/Mideast: Housing Stock & New Housing Units by Country 242

List of Charts

Section III -- Overview
1 World Housing Stock by Region, 2014 27
2 World Growth in Households & Housing Stock, 2004-2024 27
3 World Urban Slum Population, 2004-2014 33
4 Percent of Population with Access to Improved Water Supplies, 2014 35
5 Percent of Population with Access to Improved Sanitation Facilities, 2014 36
6 Disparity between Urban & Rural Access to Improved Water Supplies, 2014 37
7 Disparity between Urban & Rural Access to Improved Sanitation Facilities, 2014 38
8 Percent of Population with Electrical Power in Their Homes, 2014 40
9 World New Housing Units by Region, 2019 43

Section IV -- North America
1 North America: Growth in Households & Housing Stock, 2004-2024 50
2 United States: Growth in Households & Housing Stock, 2004-2024 57
3 Canada: Growth in Households & Housing Stock, 2004-2024 65
4 Mexico: Growth in Households & Housing Stock, 2004-2024 71

Section V -- Western Europe
1 Western Europe: Growth in Households & Housing Stock, 2004-2024 78
2 Germany: Growth in Households & Housing Stock, 2004-2024 84
3 France: Growth in Households & Housing Stock, 2004-2024 90
4 United Kingdom: Growth in Households & Housing Stock, 2004-2024 96
5 Italy: Growth in Households & Housing Stock, 2004-2024 102
6 Spain: Growth in Households & Housing Stock, 2004-2024 107
7 Other Western Europe: Growth in Households & Housing Stock, 2004-2024 113

Section VI -- Asia/Pacific
1 Asia/Pacific: Growth in Households & Housing Stock, 2004-2024 120
2 China: Growth in Households & Housing Stock, 2004-2024 127
3 India: Growth in Households & Housing Stock, 2004-2014 134
4 Indonesia: Growth in Households & Housing Stock, 2004-2024 140
5 Japan: Growth in Households & Housing Stock, 2004-2024 145
6 Thailand: Growth in Households & Housing Stock, 2004-2024 151
7 South Korea: Growth in Households & Housing Stock, 2004-2024 157
8 Australia: Growth in Households & Housing Stock, 2004-2014 162
9 Taiwan: Growth in Households & Housing Stock, 2004-2024 167
10 Other Asia/Pacific: Growth in Households & Housing Stock, 2004-2024 172

Section VII -- Other Regions
1 Central & South America: Growth in Households & Housing Stock, 2004-2024 179
2 Brazil: Growth in Households & Housing Stock, 2004-2024 185
3 Argentina: Growth in Households & Housing Stock, 2004-2024 190
4 Other Central & South America: Growth in Households & Housing Stock, 2004-2024 195
5 Eastern Europe: Growth in Households & Housing Stock, 2004-2024 201
6 Russia: Growth in Households & Housing Stock, 2004-2024 207
7 Poland: Growth in Households & Housing Stock, 2004-2024 212
8 Other Eastern Europe: Growth in Households & Housing Stock, 2004-2024 217
9 Africa/Mideast: Growth in Households & Housing Stock, 2004-2024 222
10 Turkey: Growth in Households & Housing Stock, 2004-2024 229
11 South Africa: Growth in Households & Housing Stock, 2004-2024 234
12 Other Africa/Mideast: Growth in Households & Housing Stock, 2004-2024 239

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