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World Gears to 2019

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Date: 31-Oct-2015
No. of pages: 506
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World demand to exceed $218 billion by 2019

Worldwide sales of gears are projected to rise six percent per annum through 2019 to $221 billion. Global demand for gears will increase because of advances in motor vehicle and other durable goods output. In the automotive market, a shift toward more expensive, energy-efficient units, such as seven- and eight-speed automatic transmissions, will contribute to value gains. In addition, sales of gears used in a number of relatively small but fast-growing applications, such as wind and solar power, are expected to increase significantly.

China among most rapidly growing national markets

Gear demand will expand the fastest in China and other industrializing nations, where demand for motor vehicles, motorcycles and other durable goods is forecast to see the strongest gains as personal incomes and consumer spending continue to rise. This will result in additional investment in new manufacturing capacity and a sharp increase in related gear sales in the Asia/Pacific, the Africa/Mideast, Central and South America, and Eastern Europe regions. China alone is projected to account for nearly two-fifths of all market growth through 2019 in dollar terms. Going forward, both small and large firms in industrializing countries are expected to increase their use of higher end gears, adding to demand value gains.

The large, mature North American and West European gear markets are forecast to expand between three and four percent per year during the 2014-2019 period. Demand for gears in Germany and in the US, the two largest markets in these regions, is expected to moderate after climbing twelve percent and five percent, respectively, from 2009 to 2014. And in Japan, the world’s third largest national market behind China and the US, sales of gears will decelerate through 2019 because of a drop in motor vehicle output. Nonetheless, durables manufacturing activity in North America, Western Europe, and Japan is projected to increase going forward and generate additional demand for gears. Consumer spending on durable goods in these areas will also rise as economic conditions improve further, leading to an increase in gear demand. Durable goods suppliers in North America, Western Europe, and Japan will benefit as well from new export sales opportunities in nearby developing countries. However, competition from new and existing alternative technologies -- such as continuously variable transmissions (CVTs) and gearless direct drive systems -- is expected to restrain sales growth in many mature gear markets.

Motor vehicle market to remain key application

Motor vehicle applications account for three-fourths of worldwide gear sales. Demand for gears used in the dominant motor vehicle market -- including accessories, transmissions, driveline components, and steering equipment -- will increase between four and six percent annually through 2019. Gains will be driven by rising global demand for and production of motor vehicles, and by the use of more expensive and technologically advanced automotive gears. For example, global per vehicle transmission gear demand is projected to grow as these products become more sophisticated and as medium and heavy vehicle production outpaces that of light vehicles. Increasing world output of construction, mining, and industrial equipment, and rising production of a wide range of other durable goods will fuel growth in the machinery and other segments of the gear market.

Company Profiles

Profiles 35 global industry players such as Aisin Seiki, Ford, General Motors, Honda, Toyota, Volkswagen & ZF Friedrichshafen

Additional Information

This study analyzes the world market for gears and gear assemblies. The major product types are vehicular gear assemblies (powertrain and steering), other gear assemblies (speed reducers and changers, and gearmotors and all other nonvehicular assemblies), and individual gears (bevel, helical, spur, etc.). The major gear markets are motor vehicles (automobiles, buses, trucks and vans), machinery (including agricultural equipment, construction machinery, industrial trucks and tractors, and mining equipment), and other (aircraft, home appliances, locomotives, marine equipment, motorcycles, etc.). In order to avoid double counting, sales of individual gears to original equipment manufacturers of gear assemblies are not included in the demand figures provided in this study.

Historical data for 2004, 2009, and 2014, and forecasts for 2019 and 2024 are provided for shipments, demand by product type, and net exports of gears on a country by country basis, valued in millions of current US dollars, including inflation. For the motor vehicle market, gear demand is broken out by application (driveline components, steering equipment, transmissions, and accessories and other). At the world level, motor vehicle gear demand is also broken out by source (original equipment manufacturing or OEM, and aftermarket). OEM gear demand includes both merchant sales and captive gear demand, which is defined as consumption of gears and gear assemblies made in-house by manufacturers for incorporation into their own products.

World Gears to 2019

Table of Contents

Introduction XII

I. Executive Summary 1

II. Market Environment 4
General 4
World Economic Overview 5
Recent Historical Trends 5
World Economic Outlook 7
World Gross Fixed Investment Outlook 10
World Durable Goods Manufacturing Outlook 12
World Motor Vehicle Trends 14
Motor Vehicle Production 15
Motor Vehicles in Use 19
Pricing Patterns 21
Materials 24
Technological Trends 26

III. World Supply & Demand 31
General 31
Regional Overview 32
Demand 33
Production 38
International Trade 42
Demand by Product 45
Gear Assemblies 47
Vehicular 48
Powertrain 50
Steering 52
Other 54
Speed Reducers & Changers 55
Gearmotors & All Other 57
Individual Gears 58
Demand by Market 61
Motor Vehicles 62
Demand by Application 64
Transmissions 66
Driveline Components 69
Steering Equipment 72
Accessories & Other 74
Demand by Source 76
OEM 79
Aftermarket 79
Machinery 80
Other 82
Motorcycles 84
All Other 85

IV. North America 86
Economic Overview 86
Gear Supply & Demand 89
Gear Market Outlook 92
United States 95
Canada 103
Mexico 110

V. Western Europe 119
Economic Overview 119
Gear Supply & Demand 122
Gear Market Outlook 125
Germany 128
France 137
United Kingdom 144
Italy 153
Spain 160
Other Western Europe 168
Belgium 178
All Other 179

VI. Asia/Pacific 182
Economic Overview 182
Gear Supply & Demand 185
Gear Market Outlook 189
China 192
Japan 202
South Korea 209
India 216
Thailand 225
Indonesia 233
Other Asia/Pacific 241

VII. Other Regions 250
Central & South America 250
Economic Overview 250
Gear Supply & Demand 253
Gear Market Outlook 256
Brazil 258
Other Central & South America 266
Eastern Europe 274
Economic Overview 274
Gear Supply & Demand 277
Gear Market Outlook 281
Russia 283
Czech Republic 292
Poland 299
Other Eastern Europe 306
Slovakia 315
All Other 317
Africa/Mideast 318
Economic Overview 318
Gear Supply & Demand 321
Gear Market Outlook 325
Turkey 327
Other Africa/Mideast 334
Iran 343
All Other 345
General 347
Industry Composition 348
Market Share 351
Product Development & Manufacturing 358
Marketing & Distribution 360
Cooperative Agreements 361
Mergers & Acquisitions 367
Company Profiles 370
Aisin Seiki Company Limited 371
Allison Transmission Holdings Incorporated 374
American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Incorporated 376
Bonfiglioli Riduttori SpA 379
BorgWarner Incorporated 381
Bosch (Robert) GmbH 384
Brevini Power Transmission SpA 388
Brown (David) Gear Systems, see Clyde Blowers Carraro SpA 391
Caterpillar Incorporated 393
Changan Ford Automobile, see Ford Motor China High Speed Transmission Equipment Group Company Limited 395
Chrysler Group, see Fiat Chrysler Automobiles Clyde Blowers Limited 398
Cone Drive Operations, see Clyde Blowers Daimler AG 403
Dana Holding Corporation 406
Dana Rexroth Transmission Systems, see Bosch (Robert) and Dana Detroit Diesel, see Daimler Divgi-Warner, see Borg Warener Eaton Corporation plc 409
Fast Group, see Shaanxi Fast Auto Drive Group FCA US, see Fiat Chrysler Automobiles Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV 411
Ford Motor Company 414
General Motors Company 416
GETRAG FORD Transmissions, see Ford Motor and GETRAG Getriebe- und Zahnradfabrik Hermann Hagenmeyer GETRAG Getriebe- und Zahnradfabrik Hermann Hagenmeyer 418
GKN plc 420
Hansen Industrial Transmissions, see Sumitomo Heavy Industries Hefei AAM Automotive Driveline & hassis System, see American Axle & Manufacturing Honda Motor Company Limited 425
Hyundai Motor Company 427
JATCO, see Nissan Motor Magna International Incorporated 431
Magneti Marelli, see Fiat Chrysler Automobiles MAN, see Volkswagen Meritor Incorporated 433
Nissan Motor Company Limited 436
OC Oerlikon Management AG 439
Peugeot SA 441
RENK, see Volkswagen Santasalo Moventas, see Clyde Blowers Scania, see Volkswagen SEW-EURODRIVE GmbH & Company KG 442
Shaanxi Fast Auto Drive Group Company Limited 445
Siemens AG 446
Spicer India, see Dana Star Transmission srl, see Daimler AG Sumitomo Heavy Industries Limited 448
Toyota Motor Corporation 452
Univance Corporation 454
Valeo SA 456
Volkswagen AG 457
Winergy, see Siemens ZF Friedrichshafen AG 462
ZF Lenksysteme, see Bosch (Robert) Other Companies Mentioned in Study 468

List of Tables

Section I -- Executive Summary
Summary Table 3

Section II -- Market Environment
1 World Gross Domestic Product by Region 9
2 World Gross Fixed Investment by Region 11
3 World Durable Goods Manufacturing Value Added by Type & Region 14
4 Motor Vehicle Production by Type & Region 18
5 Motor Vehicles in Use by Region 21
6 World Gear Price Deflators 23

Section III -- World Supply & Demand
1 World Gear Demand by Region 35
2 World Gear Production by Region 41
3 World Gear Net Exports by Region 45
4 World Gear Demand by Product 46
5 World Gear Assemblies Demand by Product & Region 48
6 World Vehicular Gear Assemblies Demand by Product & Region 50
7 World Demand for Other Gear Assemblies by Product & Region 55
8 World Individual Gear Demand by Region 60
9 World Gear Demand by Market 61
10 World Motor Vehicle Gear Demand by Region 64
11 World Motor Vehicle Gear Demand by Application 65
12 World Motor Vehicle Transmission Gear Demand by Region 69
13 World Motor Vehicle Driveline Components Gear Demandby Region 71
14 World Motor Vehicle Steering Equipment Gear Demand by Region 74
15 World Demand for Gears Used in Motor Vehicle Accessories & Other Motor Vehicle Applications 76
16 World Motor Vehicle Gear Demand by Source 78
17 World Machinery Gear Demand by Region 82
18 World Demand for Gears Used in Other Markets by Segment & Region 84

Section IV -- North America
1 North America: Gear Supply & Demand 88
2 North America: Gear Demand by Product 91
3 North America: Gear Demand by Market 94
4 United States: Gear Supply & Demand 97
5 United States: Gear Demand by Product 101
6 United States: Gear Demand by Market 103
7 Canada: Gear Supply & Demand 105
8 Canada: Gear Demand by Product 108
9 Canada: Gear Demand by Market 110
10 Mexico: Gear Supply & Demand 112
11 Mexico: Gear Demand by Product 115
12 Mexico: Gear Demand by Market 118

Section V -- Western Europe
1 Western Europe: Gear Supply & Demand 121
2 Western Europe: Gear Demand by Product 124
3 Western Europe: Gear Demand by Market 127
4 Germany: Gear Supply & Demand 130
5 Germany: Gear Demand by Product 134
6 Germany: Gear Demand by Market 136
7 France: Gear Supply & Demand 139
8 France: Gear Demand by Product 142
9 France: Gear Demand by Market 144
10 United Kingdom: Gear Supply & Demand 146
11 United Kingdom: Gear Demand by Product 149
12 United Kingdom: Gear Demand by Market 152
13 Italy: Gear Supply & Demand 155
14 Italy: Gear Demand by Product 158
15 Italy: Gear Demand by Market 160
16 Spain: Gear Supply & Demand 162
17 Spain: Gear Demand by Product 166
18 Spain: Gear Demand by Market 168
19 Other Western Europe: Gear Supply & Demand 171
20 Other Western Europe: Gear Demand by Product 175
21 Other Western Europe: Gear Demand by Market 177
22 Other Western Europe: Gear Supply & Demand by Country 178

Section VI -- Asia/Pacific
1 Asia/Pacific: Gear Supply & Demand 184
2 Asia/Pacific: Gear Demand by Product 188
3 Asia/Pacific: Gear Demand by Market 192
4 China: Gear Supply & Demand 195
5 China: Gear Demand by Product 199
6 China: Gear Demand by Market 201
7 Japan: Gear Supply & Demand 204
8 Japan: Gear Demand by Product 207
9 Japan: Gear Demand by Market 209
10 South Korea: Gear Supply & Demand 211
11 South Korea: Gear Demand by Product 214
12 South Korea: Gear Demand by Market 216
13 India: Gear Supply & Demand 219
14 India: Gear Demand by Product 223
15 India: Gear Demand by Market 225
16 Thailand: Gear Supply & Demand 227
17 Thailand: Gear Demand by Product 231
18 Thailand: Gear Demand by Market 233
19 Indonesia: Gear Supply & Demand 235
20 Indonesia: Gear Demand by Product 238
21 Indonesia: Gear Demand by Market 240
22 Other Asia/Pacific: Gear Supply & Demand 243
23 Other Asia/Pacific: Gear Demand by Product 247
24 Other Asia/Pacific: Gear Demand by Market 249

Section VII -- Other Regions
1 Central & South America: Gear Supply & Demand 252
2 Central & South America: Gear Demand by Product 255
3 Central & South America: Gear Demand by Market 258
4 Brazil: Gear Supply & Demand 261
5 Brazil: Gear Demand by Product 264
6 Brazil: Gear Demand by Market 266
7 Other Central & South America: Gear Supply & Demand 268
8 Other Central & South America: Gear Demand by Product 271
9 Other Central & South America: Gear Demand by Market 273
10 Eastern Europe: Gear Supply & Demand 276
11 Eastern Europe: Gear Demand by Product 280
12 Eastern Europe: Gear Demand by Market 283
13 Russia: Gear Supply & Demand 286
14 Russia: Gear Demand by Product 290
15 Russia: Gear Demand by Market 292
16 Czech Republic: Gear Supply & Demand 294
17 Czech Republic: Gear Demand by Product 297
18 Czech Republic: Gear Demand by Market 299
19 Poland: Gear Supply & Demand 301
20 Poland: Gear Demand by Product 304
21 Poland: Gear Demand by Market 306
22 Other Eastern Europe: Gear Supply & Demand 308
23 Other Eastern Europe: Gear Demand by Product 312
24 Other Eastern Europe: Gear Demand by Market 314
25 Other Eastern Europe: Gear Supply & Demand by Country 315
26 Africa/Mideast: Gear Supply & Demand 320
27 Africa/Mideast: Gear Demand by Product 324
28 Africa/Mideast: Gear Demand by Market 327
29 Turkey: Gear Supply & Demand 329
30 Turkey: Gear Demand by Product 332
31 Turkey: Gear Demand by Market 334
32 Other Africa/Mideast: Gear Supply & Demand 337
33 Other Africa/Mideast: Gear Demand by Product 340
34 Other Africa/Mideast: Gear Demand by Market 342
35 Other Africa/Mideast: Gear Supply & Demand by Country 343

Section VIII -- Industry Structure
1 World Gear Sales by Company, 2014 350
2 Selected Cooperative Agreements 363
3 Selected Acquisitions & Divestitures 368

List of Charts

Section II -- Market Environment
1 World Motor Vehicle Production by Region, 2014 19
2 World Gear Price Deflators, 2004-2024 23

Section III -- World Supply & Demand
1 World Gear Demand by Region, 2014 36
2 Increase in Annual Gear Demand From 2014 to 2019 by Region 36
3 World Gear Demand: Projected 2014-2019 Annual Rate of Growth 37
4 World Gear Production by Region, 2014 42
5 World Gear Demand by Product, 2014 47
6 World Gear Demand by Market, 2014 62
7 World Motor Vehicle Gear Demand by Application, 2014 65
8 World Motor Vehicle Gear Demand by Source, 2004-2024 78

Section IV -- North America
1 North America: Gear Demand by Country, 2014 92

Section V -- Western Europe
1 Western Europe: Gear Demand by Country, 2014 125

Section VI -- Asia/Pacific
1 Asia/Pacific: Gear Demand by Country, 2014 189

Section VII -- Other Regions
1 Eastern Europe: Gear Demand by Country, 2014 281
2 Africa/Mideast: Gear Demand by Country, 2014 325

Section VIII -- Industry Structure
1 World Gear Market Share, 2014 353

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