World Buses to 2018

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Date: 20-Mar-2015
No. of pages: 439
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World demand to rise over 5% annually through 2018

Worldwide demand for buses is projected to rise more than five percent per annum to over 600,000 units in 2018, twice as fast as the 2008-2013 rate of increase. The number of buses in use worldwide is expected to exceed eight million units in 2018. Five major trends will fuel growth:


  • Expansion in the size of the global urban population.

  • Rising government investment in public transportation networks, particularly bus rapid transit systems, to reduce traffic congestion and improve air quality.

  • Growth in the number and size of private transportation companies.

  • Climbing worldwide sales of electric, hybrid, compressed natural gas (CNG), and liquefied natural gas (LNG) models, as many countries adopt more stringent emissions standards and environmental considerations grow in importance.

  • Growth in the use of Type C and other school bus models because of government efforts to expand access to education, safety concerns, and more favorable conditions in the large US market.


However, global bus sales increases will be restrained by rising demand for and use of motorcycles and light motor vehicles for transportation as income levels climb in many developing nations. The expansion of rail transportation networks around the world is also expected to moderate bus market growth.

Asia/Pacific region to post largest gains in demand

The Asia/Pacific region is projected to account for more than three-fifths of all new bus demand through 2018. Growth is expected to pick up in both India and China, the region’s two largest bus markets, after declining moderately during the second part of the 2008-2013 period. Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea are also expected to perform considerably better between 2013 and 2018 as older buses are replaced, often with alternative fuel models, while Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, and other developing nations will continue to see impressive bus sales growth. Suppliers to the Asia/Pacific bus market will benefit greatly from further government spending on bus transportation networks and the expansion of the tourism and private transportation industries. Sales of Type C and other purposebuilt school buses are also expected to advance sharply, especially in China.

Growth to accelerate in North America, Western Europe

Following a period of sizable losses, demand for buses in North America and Western Europe is projected to rebound noticeably, as sales of electric, hybrid, CNG, and LNG buses grow. Since 2003, demand for these models has increased dramatically in these two regions from relatively small existing market bases because of the adoption of more stringent emissions standards (e.g., Euro VI for buses in December 2013), and this trend is expected to continue. Many cities, private transportation companies, and other end users have become much more sensitive to environmental issues. In addition, suppliers to the North American market will benefit from a rebound in Type C school bus sales, while Western Europe is expected to post gains in demand for private and public transit buses and motor coaches to replace aging fleets. Difficult economic conditions in many West European countries caused governments to delay transit bus replacement.

Company Profiles

Profiles competitors such as Daimler, Marcopolo, Volkswagen, Xiamen King Long Motor & Zhengzhou Yutong Bus

Additional Information

This comprehensive study analyzes global supply of and demand for buses. The products covered by this report are:


  • Motor coaches, which are used to transport passengers between cities or regions and tend to be uniquely designed with comfortable seats and large luggage storage space at wheel level

  • Transit buses, which are designed to efficiently move passengers within metropolitan areas and are also used in other applications

  • Type C school buses, also known as “conventional” school buses, which are designed to carry more than 10 people and have the engine in front of the windshield and the entrance door behind the front wheels

  • All other buses, which tend to be smaller vehicles, often based on medium-duty truck chassis, used in special applications like airport, hospital, hotel, and senior citizen transport, and as support vehicles for schools (Type A and stripped chassis Type B school buses)


This study excludes most buses derived from light vehicles and minibuses designed to carry eight or fewer passengers (in addition to the driver), vehicles that are quite popular in China and elsewhere in the Asia/Pacific region. Historical data for 2003, 2008, and 2013, and forecasts for 2018 and 2023 are provided for demand by product type, total production, and net exports. Also provided is the total number of buses in use (the “bus park” or “stock”) and, at the world level, total bus demand in millions of current US dollars, including inflation. The term “demand” refers to “apparent consumption” and is defined as production (also referred to as “shipments,” “output,” or “supply”) from a nation’s domestic bus manufacturing facilities, plus imports, minus exports. It is used interchangeably with the terms “market,” “sales,” and “consumption.

World Buses to 2018

Table of Contents

Introduction X

I. Executive Summary 1

II. Market Environment 4
General 4
World Economic Overview 4
Recent Historical Trends 5
World Economic Outlook 6
Personal Income Trends 9
World Demographic Overview 11
Population 12
Urban Population 14
World Light Vehicle & Motorcycle Overview 16
Light Vehicle Demand 17
Motorcycle Demand 19
Energy Prices 22
Technology Trends 26
Legal & Regulatory Environment 28
Pricing Trends 33

III. Overview 37
General 37
Regional Overview 38
Demand 39
Park 43
Production 47
International Trade 52
Demand by Product 56
Motor Coaches 60
Transit Buses 63
Other Buses 66
Demand by Fuel Type 70
Bus Rapid Transit Systems 75

IV. North America 79
Economic Overview 79
Bus Supply & Demand 80
Bus Market Outlook 84
United States 89
Canada 96
Mexico 103

V. Western Europe 111
Economic Overview 111
Bus Supply & Demand 112
Bus Market Outlook 116
France 121
Germany 127
United Kingdom 133
Italy 140
Spain 146
Other Western Europe 152

VI. Asia/Pacific 160
Economic Overview 160
Bus Supply & Demand 161
Bus Market Outlook 165
China 169
India 177
South Korea 185
Japan 191
Indonesia 197
Thailand 203
Other Asia/Pacific 210

VII. Other Regions 225
Central & South America 225
Economic Overview 225
Bus Supply & Demand 226
Bus Market Outlook 229
Brazil 234
Other Central & South America 241
Eastern Europe 253
Economic Overview 253
Bus Supply & Demand 255
Bus Market Outlook 258
Russia 261
Other Eastern Europe 268
Africa/Mideast 276
Economic Overview 276
Bus Supply & Demand 277
Bus Market Outlook 281
Turkey 284
Saudi Arabia 290
Other Africa/Mideast 297

VIII. Industry Structure 305
General 305
Industry Composition 306
Market Share 308
Research & Product Development 316
Manufacturing 319
Marketing & Distribution 321
Financial Requirements 323
Cooperative Agreements 324
Mergers & Acquisitions 332
Company Profiles 335
Advanced Public Transport Systems, see VDL Groep Alexander Dennis Limited 336
Allied Specialty Vehicles Incorporated 339
Anhui Ankai Automobile Company Limited 341
Ashok Leyland Limited 343
Berkshire Hathaway Incorporated 345
Blue Bird Corporation 347
Carrosserie HESS AG 349
Champion Bus, see Allied Specialty Vehicles China First Automobile Works Group Corporation 350
CNH Industrial NV 351
Collins Bus, see Allied Specialty Vehicles Consorcio G Grupo Dina SA de CV 353
Daimler AG 355
Detroit Diesel, see Daimler Dina Camiones, see Consorcio G Grupo Dina Eicher Motors Limited 360
ElDorado National California, see Allied Specialty Vehicles ElDorado National Kansas, see Allied Specialty Vehicles Elkhart Coach, see Berkshire Hathaway EvoBus, see Daimler Federal Coach, see Allied Specialty Vehicles Fiat Industrial, see CNH Industrial Forest River, see Berkshire Hathaway GAZ OAO 362
General Coach America, see Allied Specialty Vehicles General Motors Company 364
Glaval Bus, see Berkshire Hathaway Goshen Coach, see Allied Specialty Vehicles Haci Ömer Sabanci Holding AS 365
Hino Motors, see Toyota Motor Hyundai Motor Company 367
IC Bus LLC, see Navistar International Corporation International Indústria de Motores da América do Sul, see Navistar International Irizar S Cooperativa 369
IRIZAR-TVS, see Ashok Leyland Limited and Irizar S Cooperativa Iveco, see CNH Industrial Isuzu Motors Limited 371
J-Bus, see Isuzu Motors and Toyota Motor Kuozui Motors, see Toyota Motor Liaoning SG Automotive Group Company Limited 373
MAN, see Volkswagen Marcopolo SA 374
Micro Bird, see Blue Bird Minsky Avtomobilny Zavod JSC 377
Mitsubishi Fuso Truck and Bus, see Daimler Motor Coach Industries Incorporated 378
Navistar International Corporation 379
NEOPLAN Bus, see Volkswagen New Flyer Industries Incorporated 383
North American Bus Industries, see New Flyer Industries Nova Bus, see Volvo Optare, see Ashok Leyland
Polomex, see Daimler and Marcopolo Prevost Car, see Volvo Proterra Incorporated 386
Scania, see Volkswagen Solaris Bus & Coach SA 388
Starcraft Bus, see Berkshire Hathaway Superpolo, see Marcopolo Tata Marcopolo Motors, see Marcopolo and Tata Motors Tata Motors Limited 390
Temsa Global Sanayi ve Ticaret, see Haci Ömer Sabanci Holding Thomas Built Buses, see Daimler Thor Industries Incorporated 392
Toyota Motor Corporation 393
Van Hool NV 396
VDL Groep BV 398
VE Commercial Vehicles, see Eicher Motors and Volvo Volgren Australia Pty, see Marcopolo Volkswagen AG 401
Volvo AB 406
Wright Group Limited 409
Xiamen King Long Motor Group Company Limited 411
Yangzhou Yaxing Motor Coach Company Limited 413
Zhengzhou Yutong Bus Company Limited 414
Zhongtong Bus Holding Company Limited 415
Zyle Daewoo Bus Corporation 416
Other Companies Mentioned in Study 419

List of Tables

Section I -- Executive Summary
1 Summary Table 3

Section II -- Market Environment
1 World Gross Domestic Product by Region 9
2 World Per Capita GDP 11
3 World Population by Region & Age 14
4 World Urban Population by Region 16
5 World Light Vehicle Demand by Region 19
6 World Motorcycle Demand by Region 21

Section III -- Overview
1 World Bus Demand by Region 42
2 World Buses in Use by Region 46
3 World Bus Production by Region 51
4 World Bus Net Exports by Region 56
5 World Bus Demand by Product 58
6 World Motor Coach Demand by Region 63
7 World Transit Bus Demand by Region 66
8 World Other Bus Demand by Product & Region 69
9 World Bus Demand by Fuel Type 74

Section IV -- North America
1 North America: Bus Supply & Demand 83
2 North America: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product & Fuel Type 88
3 United States: Bus Supply & Demand 93
4 United States: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 96
5 Canada: Bus Supply & Demand 100
6 Canada: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 103
7 Mexico: Bus Supply & Demand 107
8 Mexico: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 110

Section V -- Western Europe
1 Western Europe: Bus Supply & Demand 115
2 Western Europe: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product & Fuel Type 120
3 France: Bus Supply & Demand 124
4 France: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 126
5 Germany: Bus Supply & Demand 131
6 Germany: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 133
7 United Kingdom: Bus Supply & Demand 137
8 United Kingdom: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 140
9 Italy: Bus Supply & Demand 144
10 Italy: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 146
11 Spain: Bus Supply & Demand 150
12 Spain: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 152
13 Other Western Europe: Bus Supply & Demand 157
14 Other Western Europe: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 159

Section VI -- Asia/Pacific
1 Asia/Pacific: Bus Supply & Demand 164
2 Asia/Pacific: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product & Fuel Type 168
3 China: Bus Supply & Demand 174
4 China: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 177
5 India: Bus Supply & Demand 182
6 India: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 185
7 South Korea: Bus Supply & Demand 189
8 South Korea: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 191
9 Japan: Bus Supply & Demand 195
10 Japan: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 197
11 Indonesia: Bus Supply & Demand 201
12 Indonesia: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 203
13 Thailand: Bus Supply & Demand 207
14 Thailand: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 210
15 Other Asia/Pacific: Bus Supply & Demand 214
16 Other Asia/Pacific: Buses in Use & Bus Demand By Product 217
17 Other Asia/Pacific: Buses in Use & Bus Supply & Demand by Country 219

Section VII -- Other Regions
1 Central & South America: Bus Supply & Demand 229
2 Central & South America: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product & Fuel Type 233
3 Brazil: Bus Supply & Demand 238
4 Brazil: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 241
5 Other Central & South America: Bus Supply & Demand 246
6 Other Central & South America: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 248
7 Other Central & South America: Buses in Use & Bus Supply & Demand by Country 250
8 Eastern Europe: Bus Supply & Demand by Type 257
9 Eastern Europe: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product & Fuel Type 260
10 Russia: Bus Supply & Demand 265
11 Russia: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 268
12 Other Eastern Europe: Bus Supply & Demand 272
13 Other Eastern Europe: Buses in Use & Demand by Bus Type 275
14 Africa/Mideast: Supply & Demand 280
15 Africa/Mideast: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product & Fuel Type 283
16 Turkey: Bus Supply & Demand 288
17 Turkey: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 290
18 Saudi Arabia: Bus Supply & Demand 294
19 Saudi Arabia: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 297
20 Other Africa/Mideast: Bus Supply & Demand 302
21 Other Africa/Mideast: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 304

Section VIII -- Industry Structure
1 Bus Sales for Selected Manufacturers, 2013 307
2 Selected Cooperative Agreements 326
3 Selected Acquisitions & Divestitures 334

List of Charts

Section IX -- Executive Summary

Section X -- Market Environment
1 Average Annual Crude Oil Spot Prices, 2003-2013 24
2 Natural Gas Prices, 2003-2013 26
3 World Average Bus Prices, 2003-2023 36

Section XI -- Overview
1 World Bus Demand by Region, 2013 43
2 World Buses in Use by Region, 2013 47
3 World Bus Production by Region, 2013 52
4 World Bus Demand by Product, 2013 59
5 Change in Bus Demand by Product, 2008-2013 & 2013-2018 60
6 World Bus Market Share by Fuel Type, 2003-2023 75
7 World Bus Rapid Transit System by Region, 2014 78

Section XII -- North America
1 North America: Bus Demand by Country, 2013 84

Section XIII -- Western Europe
1 Western Europe: Bus Demand by Country, 2013 116

Section XIV -- Asia/Pacific
1 Asia/Pacific: Bus Demand by Country, 2013 165

Section XV -- Other Regions

Section XVI -- Industry Structure
1 World Bus Market Share by Units, 2013 309
2 World Market Share by Type, 2013 310

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