Vietnam Oil and Gas Report Q3 2013

Publisher Name :
Date:5-Jun-2013
No. of pages: 120

BMI View: Oil output will rise in the short-term as new fields are brought online or are ramped up to peak
production levels to offset declining volumes from the flagship Bach Ho field. We expect oil output to peak
in 2016 but fall thereafter, as further growth could be hindered by exploration limits imposed by Vietnam’s
maritime dispute with China in the South China Sea. New developments are set to boost long-term gas
production, while its downstream is finally picking up after years of delay in pushing forth new and much
needed projects to meet the country’s growing fuel demand.
The main trends and developments for Vietnam’s oil and gas sector are:
? Oil output will rise in the short term as new fields are brought online or are ramped up to peak production
levels. This could push production up from an estimate of 347,062 barrels per day (b/d) in 2012 to
409,655b/d by 2016. However, this spell will end in 2017 unless further fields are developed. BMI
therefore expects production to decline from its 2016 peak to 406,330b/d in 2017 and to 362,056b/d by
2022.
? Economic growth – expected to average at 6.7% over our 10-year forecast period to 2022 – will continue
to drive oil and gas consumption in Vietnam higher over the next decade. Our bullish economic forecast
has led us to revise our oil consumption growth for Vietnam upwards; we see oil demand growing from
396,680b/d in 2013 to 581,070b/d in 2022.

Vietnam Oil and Gas Report Q3 2013

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast .. 10
Table: Vietnam - Upstream Projects Database . 10
Oil And Gas Reserves .. 12
Table: Vietnam Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data: Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016 . 12
Table: Vietnam Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data: Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022 . 13
Oil Supply And Demand .. 16
Table: Vietnam Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports: Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2016 16
Table: Vietnam Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports: Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022 17
Gas Supply And Demand . 21
Table: Vietnam Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports: Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016 21
Table: Vietnam Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports: Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022 . 22
Refining And Oil Products Trade .. 26
Table: Vietnam Refining - Production And Consumption: Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016 . 26
Table: Vietnam Refining - Production And Consumption: Long-Term Forecast, 2017-2022 . 27
Revenues/Import Costs . 28
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario . 28
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 30
Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings .. 30
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Rewards Ratings 31
Upstream Hindrance 31
Table: Asia Upstream Sector Risk/Reward Ratings 33
Crude Requirement .. 33
Gasifying Asia 35
Table: Asia O&G Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings 41
Vietnam - Risk/Reward Ratings 42
Vietnam Upstream Ratings - Rewards .. 42
Vietnam Upstream Ratings - Risks . 42
Downstream Scores .. 42
Market Overview 44
Oil & Gas Infrastructure 44
Oil Refineries . 44
Table: Vietnam's Main Refineries 44
Oil Storage Facilities 47
LNG Import Terminal .. 47
Gas Pipelines . 48
Vietnam Energy Market Overview 50
Overview/State Role . 51
Licensing And Regulation 52
Government Policy 55
Competitive Landscape . 57
Table: Key Players - Vietnam Oil And Gas Sector 58
Table: Key Upstream Players 58
Table: Key Downstream Players . 59
Company Profile . 60
PetroVietnam 60
Rosneft/TNK Vietnam . 65
Petronas Vietnam 68
Zarubezhneft . 71
Other Companies - Summary 74
Regional Overview 84
Asia Energy Overview 84
Energy Shifts .. 84
Pacific Leads Liquefaction Boom, With Challenges .. 86
Table: Expansion Of Liquefaction Capacity In Asia Pacific . 87
LNG Demand Stays Buoyant .. 88
Unconventional Rescue 89
Refining Woes 91
Global Industry Overview .. 95
Global Energy Market Overview . 95
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts & Bloomberg Analyst Consensus, Average Price (US$/bbl) . 96
Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts . 103
Appendix .. 105
Asia - Regional Appendix 105
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d) 105
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 106
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d) . 106
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 107
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d) . 108
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) . 108
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 (bcm) . 109
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) . 110
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 (bcm) . 110
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) . 111
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 (bcm) 112
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) . 112
Glossary 114
Table: Glossary Of Terms . 114
Methodology .. 116
Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology . 116
Ratings Overview 116
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Ratings - Structure 117
Indicators . 117
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings - Methodology . 117
Oil & Gas Forecasts Methodology . 119
Energy Industry .. 119
Cross checks 120
Sources . 120Table: Vietnam - Upstream Projects Database
Table: Vietnam Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data: Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
Table: Vietnam Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data: Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
Table: Vietnam Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports: Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2016
Table: Vietnam Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports: Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
Table: Vietnam Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports: Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
Table: Vietnam Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports: Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
Table: Vietnam Refining - Production And Consumption: Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
Table: Vietnam Refining - Production And Consumption: Long-Term Forecast, 2017-2022
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Rewards Ratings
Table: Asia Upstream Sector Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Asia O&G Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Vietnam's Main Refineries
Table: Key Players - Vietnam Oil And Gas Sector
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Table: Expansion Of Liquefaction Capacity In Asia Pacific
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts & Bloomberg Analyst Consensus, Average Price (US$/bbl)
Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d)
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 (bcm)
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 (bcm)
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 (bcm)
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Ratings - Structure
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings - Methodology

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