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BMI View: Oil output will rise in the short-term as new fields are brought online or are ramped up to peak
production levels to offset declining volumes from the flagship Bach Ho field. We expect oil output to peak
in 2016 but fall thereafter, as further growth could be hindered by exploration limits imposed by Vietnam’s
maritime dispute with China in the South China Sea. New developments are set to boost long-term gas
production, while its downstream is finally picking up after years of delay in pushing forth new and much
needed projects to meet the country’s growing fuel demand.
The main trends and developments for Vietnam’s oil and gas sector are:
? Oil output will rise in the short term as new fields are brought online or are ramped up to peak production
levels. This could push production up from an estimate of 347,062 barrels per day (b/d) in 2012 to
409,655b/d by 2016. However, this spell will end in 2017 unless further fields are developed. BMI
therefore expects production to decline from its 2016 peak to 406,330b/d in 2017 and to 362,056b/d by
? Economic growth – expected to average at 6.7% over our 10-year forecast period to 2022 – will continue
to drive oil and gas consumption in Vietnam higher over the next decade. Our bullish economic forecast
has led us to revise our oil consumption growth for Vietnam upwards; we see oil demand growing from
396,680b/d in 2013 to 581,070b/d in 2022.