Venezuela Agribusiness Report Q2 2013

Publisher Name :
Date:27-Mar-2013
No. of pages: 91

BMI View: Our outlook for Venezuela”s agricultural sector is cautious given the country”s uncertain political and economic outlook. The country has significant growth potential, but the government”s policies of expropriation have seen production of key crops decline and a growing reliance on imports. Although the poultry section, for example, is well integrated, arable production and cash crops such as cocoa or coffee have been poorly managed. Following the death of president Hugo Chávez, we anticipate a new presidential election within months and believe that interim president Nicolás Maduro of the ruling Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela will win and will continue the interventionist policies of Chávez”s era.

However, we believe the pace of reforms may be more moderate and see significant potential for economic growth over our forecast period. This will, however, be dependent on the improvement of infrastructure and the adoption of more market-friendly policies.

Key Forecasts

  • Corn production growth to 2017: 45.7% to 2.04mn tonnes. Despite ongoing challenges including a lack of fertiliser and low profitability, we believe that corn output will expand strongly on the low 2012 levels.
  • Coffee consumption growth to 2017: 4.7% to 1.38mn bags. After surging by 48.3% from 2007-2012 owing to a steep rise in imports, our demand forecast for the coming five years is more moderate.

Venezuela Agribusiness Report Q2 2013

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Agribusiness 9
Business Environment 11
Industry Forecast 12
Livestock Outlook 12
Table: Venezuela Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 14
Table: Venezuela Pork Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 14
Table: Venezuela Poultry Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 14
Table: Venezuela Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 17
Table: Venezuela Pork Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 17
Table: Venezuela Poultry Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 18
Grains Outlook 18
Table: Venezuela Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 20
Table: Venezuela Wheat Consumption, 2012-2017 21
Table: Venezuela Corn Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 24
Table: Venezuela Wheat Consumption, 2007-2012 24
Coffee Outlook 25
Table: Venezuela Coffee Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 26
Table: Venezuela Coffee Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 31
Commodity Strategy 32
Monthly Softs Update 32
Table: Select Agricultural Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 42
Table: BMI Commodity Strategy 43
Monthly Grains Update 43
Table: Select Agricultural Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 51
Upstream Analysis 53
Americas GM Outlook 53
Americas Machinery Outlook 58
Americas Fertiliser Outlook 63
Downstream Analysis 70
Food 70
Food Consumption 70
Table: Food Consumption Indicators Historical Data and Forecasts 2010-2017 71
Canned and Prepared Food 71
Table: Canned Food Volume/Value Sales Historical Data and Forecasts 2010-2017 72
Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production and Trade Historical Data and Forecasts 2010-2017 72
Oils and Fats 74
Table: Oils and Fats Volume Sales, Production and Trade Historical Data and Forecasts 2010-2017 75
Confectionery 77
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales Historical Data and Forecasts 2010-2017 77
Drink 78
Alcoholic Drinks 78
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Volume/Value Sales Historical Data and Forecasts 2010-2017 79
Soft Drinks 80
Table: Soft Drinks Value Sales Historical Data and Forecasts 2010-2017 81
Hot Drinks 81
Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales Historical Data and Forecasts 2010-2017 82
Mass Grocery Retail 82
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales by Format Historical Data and Forecasts 2010-2017 83
Table: Sales Breakdown by Retail Format Type 83
Competitive Landscape 84
Table: Main Agribusiness Companies 84
Demographic Forecast 85
Table: Venezuela's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 86
Table: Venezuela's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 87
Table: Venezuela's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 88
Table: Venezuela's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 88
Methodology 89

List of Tables

Table: Venezuela Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: Venezuela Pork Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: Venezuela Poultry Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: Venezuela Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Table: Venezuela Pork Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Table: Venezuela Poultry Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Table: Venezuela Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: Venezuela Wheat Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: Venezuela Corn Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Table: Venezuela Wheat Consumption, 2007-2012
Table: Venezuela Coffee Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: Venezuela Coffee Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Table: Select Agricultural Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Table: BMI Commodity Strategy
Table: Select Agricultural Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Table: Food Consumption Indicators Historical Data and Forecasts 2010-2017
Table: Canned Food Volume/Value Sales Historical Data and Forecasts 2010-2017
Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production and Trade Historical Data and Forecasts 2010-2017
Table: Oils and Fats Volume Sales, Production and Trade Historical Data and Forecasts 2010-2017
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales Historical Data and Forecasts 2010-2017
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Volume/Value Sales Historical Data and Forecasts 2010-2017
Table: Soft Drinks Value Sales Historical Data and Forecasts 2010-2017
Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales Historical Data and Forecasts 2010-2017
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales by Format Historical Data and Forecasts 2010-2017
Table: Sales Breakdown by Retail Format Type
Table: Main Agribusiness Companies
Table: Venezuela's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Venezuela's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Venezuela's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Venezuela's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020

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