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BMI View: Gas-fired power will remain the dominant source of power in Uzbekistan over our 10-year
forecast period through to 2025, as robust gas production and limited gas export opportunities weaken the
government resolve to diversify the Uzbek power mix. The aim to privatise certain power assets to raise
cash and spur investment, amid the country's economic malaise, will register limited success due to
structural challenges muting investor interest for such assets.
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
? Uzbekistan is currently attempting to undertake a privatisation of its power sector - whereby 10
construction firms operating under the umbrella of Uzbekenergo are to sell off 15% or more of their
shares to foreign investors. We do not investor interest to be robust for power sector assets, as a result of
a challenging operating environment, the cyclical nature of the privatisation push and the backdrop of a
series of false privatisation starts.
? The development of Kyrgyzstani and Tajikistani hydropower will remain a contentious issue in Central
Asia, as Uzbekistan strongly opposes developments due to worries that the downstream of the Amu
Darya and Syr Darya rivers will suffer negative consequences. Uzbekistan has repeatedly urged its
neighbours to focus on developing small-scale projects run by the river hydropower facilities as an
? Uzbekistan's main commodity exports gas, gold, cotton and copper have seen a sizeable plunge in prices
throughout 2015, albeit the drop has not been as pronounced as oil. Together these commodities account
for nearly two-thirds of Uzbekistan export basket. We expect commodity prices to remain subdued in and
remain significantly below the levels seen in previous years, despite a rebound in prices over the next few
years. This will weigh power sector investment, due to the big footprint of the state.