Uzbekistan Power Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 14-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 62

BMI View: Gas-fired power will remain the dominant source of power in Uzbekistan over our 10-year

forecast period through to 2025, as robust gas production and limited gas export opportunities weaken the

government resolve to diversify the Uzbek power mix. The aim to privatise certain power assets to raise

cash and spur investment, amid the country's economic malaise, will register limited success due to

structural challenges muting investor interest for such assets.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

? Uzbekistan is currently attempting to undertake a privatisation of its power sector - whereby 10

construction firms operating under the umbrella of Uzbekenergo are to sell off 15% or more of their

shares to foreign investors. We do not investor interest to be robust for power sector assets, as a result of

a challenging operating environment, the cyclical nature of the privatisation push and the backdrop of a

series of false privatisation starts.

? The development of Kyrgyzstani and Tajikistani hydropower will remain a contentious issue in Central

Asia, as Uzbekistan strongly opposes developments due to worries that the downstream of the Amu

Darya and Syr Darya rivers will suffer negative consequences. Uzbekistan has repeatedly urged its

neighbours to focus on developing small-scale projects run by the river hydropower facilities as an

alternative.

? Uzbekistan's main commodity exports gas, gold, cotton and copper have seen a sizeable plunge in prices

throughout 2015, albeit the drop has not been as pronounced as oil. Together these commodities account

for nearly two-thirds of Uzbekistan export basket. We expect commodity prices to remain subdued in and

remain significantly below the levels seen in previous years, despite a rebound in prices over the next few

years. This will weigh power sector investment, due to the big footprint of the state.

Uzbekistan Power Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 9
Uzbekistan Snapshot 9
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Uzbekistan 2015-2019) 9
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Uzbekistan 2020-2025) 9
Uzbekistan Industry Forecast 10
Gas Generation And Capacity Forecast 15
Coal Generation And Capacity Forecast 21
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast 22
Non-Hydropower Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast 24
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 27
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Uzbekistan 2014-2019) 27
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Uzbekistan 2020-2025) 27
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Uzbekistan 2014-2019) 28
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Uzbekistan 2020-2025) 28
Electricity Consumption 29
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Uzbekistan 2014-2019) 29
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Uzbekistan 2020-2025) 30
Transmission & Distribution 30
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Uzbekistan 2014-2019) 31
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Uzbekistan 2020-2025) 31
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 32
CEE Power Risk/Reward Index 32
Industry Risk/Reward Index 39
Rewards 39
Risks 40
Market Overview 41
Regulation And Competition 41
Pricing 43
Uzbekistan Projects Database 44
Competitive Landscape 46
Uzbekenergo 46
Mitsubishi Hitachi Power System (MHPS) 47
Hyundai Engineering & Construction 47
Regional Overview 48
CEE Power Regional Overview 48
Glossary 56
Table: Glossary Of Terms 56
Methodology 57
Methodology And Sources 57
Industry Forecast Methodology 57
Sources 60
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 60
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 61
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 62

List of Tables

Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Uzbekistan 2015-2019)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Uzbekistan 2020-2025)
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Uzbekistan 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Uzbekistan 2020-2025)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Uzbekistan 2014-2019)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Uzbekistan 2020-2025)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Uzbekistan 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Uzbekistan 2020-2025)
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Uzbekistan 2014-2019)
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Uzbekistan 2020-2025)
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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