Uzbekistan Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 05-Oct-2016
No. of pages: 78

BMI View: With vast reserves and sustained levels of investment, Uzbekistan is set to remain one of the

largest producers and exporters of gas in the Caspian region across the coming decade. However the

outlook for the country's oil sector, both upstream and downstream, is much dimmer due to limited

underground strength and ageing refineries. This will leave the country increasingly dependent on refined

products' imports thus posing a substantial risk of recurring fuel shortages.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

- Uzbekistan's oil reserves are set to decline at an average annual rate of 2.0% during the coming decade,

falling from an estimated 600mn bbl in 2015 to 490mn bbl in 2025. Gas reserves will also shrink, albeit

at a slower average pace of 0.6% per annum to 1,726bcm in 2025.

- In May 2016, National Iranian Drilling Company announced that Iran has submitted a tender for oil

and gas exploration projects in Uzbekistan.

- This quarter we have kept our forecasts for Uzbekistan's oil production, which is projected to continue

shrinking at a modest albeit accelerating pace during 2016-2025. In absolute terms, the output will

decline from 83,470b/d in 2015 to 73,960b/d in 2025.

Uzbekistan Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Uzbekistan 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Upstream Projects 15
Table: Uzbekistan - Major Projects 15
Upstream Production - Oil 17
Latest Updates 17
Structural Trends 17
Table: Oil Production (Uzbekistan 2014-2019) 19
Table: Oil Production (Uzbekistan 2020-2025) 19
Upstream Production - Gas 20
Latest Updates 20
Structural Trends 20
Table: Gas Production (Uzbekistan 2014-2019) 22
Table: Gas Production (Uzbekistan 2020-2025) 22
Refining 23
Latest Updates 23
Structural Trends 23
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Uzbekistan 2014-2019) 25
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Uzbekistan 2020-2025) 26
Refined Fuels Consumption 27
Latest Updates 27
Structural Trends 27
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Uzbekistan 2014-2019) 28
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Uzbekistan 2020-2025) 29
Gas Consumption 30
Latest Updates 30
Structural Trends 30
Table: Gas Consumption (Uzbekistan 2014-2019) 30
Table: Gas Consumption (Uzbekistan 2020-2025) 31
Trade - Oil 32
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts 32
Latest Updates 32
Structural Trends 32
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Uzbekistan 2014-2020) 33
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Uzbekistan 2020-2025) 33
Fuels Trade Forecasts 33
Latest Updates 33
Structural Trends 33
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Uzbekistan 2014-2019) 34
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Uzbekistan 2020-2025) 35
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 36
Latest Updates 36
Structural Trends 36
Table: Gas Net Exports (Uzbekistan 2014-2019) 38
Table: Gas Net Exports (Uzbekistan 2020-2025) 38
Industry Risk Reward Index 39
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 39
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward 39
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Indices 40
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index 43
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market 43
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index 46
Uzbekistan - Risk/Reward Index 47
Uzbekistan Upstream Index - Rewards 47
Uzbekistan Upstream Index - Risks 47
Uzbekistan Downstream Index - Overview 47
Uzbekistan Downstream Index - Rewards 48
Uzbekistan Downstream Index- Risks 48
Market Overview 49
Uzbekistan Energy Market Overview 49
Regulatory Structure 49
Fiscal Regime 50
Table: Uzbekistan - Upstream Tax Regime 50
Licensing Regime 50
Licensing Rounds 51
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 52
Oil Refineries 52
Table: Refineries In Uzbekistan 52
Oil Shale Plant 54
Oil Pipelines 55
Gas Processing Plants 55
Gas Storage Facilities 57
Gas Pipelines 57
Gas Filling Stations 59
Competitive Landscape 60
Competitive Landscape Summary 60
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies 61
Table: Key Upstream Players 61
Table: Key Downstream Players 61
Company Profile 62
Uzbekneftegaz 62
Table: Major Upstream Assets in Uzbekistan 63
Table: Key Financial Data 63
Regional Overview 64
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview 64
Oil Production: Oil Powerhouses Falter On Weak Prices 64
Oil Consumption: Long Term Growth To Be Gentle 65
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Key To Competing 66
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Demand-Dependent 67
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions 68
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies 69
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Production & Consumption, Refining Capacity & Trade 70
Glossary 71
Table: Glossary Of Terms 71
Methodology 73
Industry Forecast Methodology 73
Source 75
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 75
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 77
Table: Weighting 78

List of Tables

Table: Headline Forecasts (Uzbekistan 2014-2020)
Table: Uzbekistan - Major Projects
Table: Oil Production (Uzbekistan 2014-2019)
Table: Oil Production (Uzbekistan 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Production (Uzbekistan 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Production (Uzbekistan 2020-2025)
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Uzbekistan 2014-2019)
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Uzbekistan 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Uzbekistan 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Uzbekistan 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Consumption (Uzbekistan 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Consumption (Uzbekistan 2020-2025)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Uzbekistan 2014-2020)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Uzbekistan 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Uzbekistan 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Uzbekistan 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Uzbekistan 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Uzbekistan 2020-2025)
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Indices
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Uzbekistan - Upstream Tax Regime
Table: Refineries In Uzbekistan
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Table: Major Upstream Assets in Uzbekistan
Table: Key Financial Data
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Production & Consumption, Refining Capacity & Trade
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting
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