BMI View: With vast reserves and sustained levels of investment, Uzbekistan is set to remain one of the
largest producers and exporters of gas in the Caspian region across the coming decade. However the
outlook for the country's oil sector, both upstream and downstream, is much dimmer due to limited
underground strength and ageing refineries. This will leave the country increasingly dependent on refined
products' imports thus posing a substantial risk of recurring fuel shortages.
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
- Uzbekistan's oil reserves are set to decline at an average annual rate of 2.0% during the coming decade,
falling from an estimated 600mn bbl in 2015 to 490mn bbl in 2025. Gas reserves will also shrink, albeit
at a slower average pace of 0.6% per annum to 1,726bcm in 2025.
- In May 2016, National Iranian Drilling Company announced that Iran has submitted a tender for oil
and gas exploration projects in Uzbekistan.
- This quarter we have kept our forecasts for Uzbekistan's oil production, which is projected to continue
shrinking at a modest albeit accelerating pace during 2016-2025. In absolute terms, the output will
decline from 83,470b/d in 2015 to 73,960b/d in 2025.