Uzbekistan Oil and Gas Report Q3 2013

Publisher Name :
Date:5-Jun-2013
No. of pages: 104

BMI View: Conventional gas deposits would support Uzbekistan’s hydrocarbons industry, though we
project a continued decline in oil production. Consumption growth in both oil and gas will be curtailed by
the diversion of gas to external markets to meet its export obligations, a failure to meet its domestic refined
products demand and restrictions on fuel imports.
The main trends and developments in Uzbekistan’s oil & gas sector are:
? We are predicting a very gradual decline in oil reserves, with 485.3mn barrels (bbl) to remain by 2022,
down from EIA’s estimate of 582.1mn bbl for 2013. However, exploration activity and a reasonable
discovery rate lead us to believe that it could see a rise in its gas reserves, from an estimated 1.8trn cubic
metres (tcm) in 2013 to 1.9tcm by 2022.

Uzbekistan Oil and Gas Report Q3 2013

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast .. 10
Table: Uzbekistan - Upstream Projects Database . 10
Oil And Gas Reserves . 11
Table: Uzbekistan's Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data: Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016 . 11
Table: Uzbekistan Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data: Long-Term Forecasts . 12
Oil Supply And Demand .. 15
Table: Uzbekistan Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports: Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016 . 15
Table: Uzbekistan Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports: Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022 16
Gas Supply And Demand . 19
Table: Uzbekistan Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports: Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016 19
Table: Uzbekistan Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports: Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022 20
Refining And Oil Products Trade .. 23
Table: Uzbekistan Refining - Production And Consumption: Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011- 2017 . 23
Table: Uzbekistan Refining - Production And Consumption: Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022 . 23
Revenues/Import Costs . 25
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario . 26
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 27
CEE - Risk/Reward Ratings .. 27
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings . 28
Caspian Retains Lead In Upstream Ratings . 28
Table: Upstream Risk/Reward Rating 29
Russian Trouble Persists . 31
Regional Minnows Breaking In .. 33
Downstream Stabilisation 33
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings 33
Uzbekistan - Risk/Reward Ratings 37
Uzbekistan Upstream Rating - Overview .. 37
Uzbekistan Upstream Rating - Rewards 37
Uzbekistan Upstream Rating - Risks . 37
Uzbekistan Downstream Rating - Overview . 37
Market Overview 38
Uzbekistan Energy Market Overview .. 38
Overview/State Role . 39
Licensing/Regulation 39
Government Policy 40
Licensing Rounds .. 41
International Energy Relations .. 41
Oil & Gas Infrastructure 44
Oil Refineries . 44
Table: Refineries In Uzbekistan 44
Oil Pipelines .. 46
Gas Processing Plants . 47
Gas Storage Facilities .. 47
Gas Pipelines . 47
Competitive Landscape . 50
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies . 51
Table: Key Upstream Players 51
Table: Key Downstream Players . 51
Company Profile . 52
Uzbekneftegaz .. 52
Lukoil . 56
Other Companies - Summary 60
Regional Overview 64
Europe Energy Overview .. 64
A Dependent Relationship 66
Looking For A Break Up . 68
Central Asia: Beneficiaries Of Europe's Russian Fatigue . 70
Moving From Pipeline To LNG .. 71
Russia Strikes Back .. 72
Eastern Europe: Black Sea Gold Rush . 73
Shale Gas Showdown 74
Global Industry Overview .. 76
Global Energy Market Overview . 76
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts & Bloomberg Analyst Consensus, Average Price (US$/bbl) . 77
Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts 84
Industry Trend Analysis . 86
Growing Implementation Base 87
Developed Drive 89
Appendix . 90
Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Appendix 90
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d) . 90
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) . 91
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d) 91
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) . 92
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d) 93
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 93
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 94
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 95
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2016 (bcm) 95
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 96
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 (bcm) 97
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 97
Glossary .. 98
Table: Glossary Of Terms 98
Methodology .. 100
Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology . 100
Ratings Overview 100
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Ratings - Structure 101
Indicators . 101
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings - Methodology . 101
Oil & Gas Forecasts Methodology . 103
Energy Industry .. 103
Cross checks 104
Sources . 104Table: Uzbekistan - Upstream Projects Database
Table: Uzbekistan's Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data: Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
Table: Uzbekistan Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data: Long-Term Forecasts
Table: Uzbekistan Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports: Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
Table: Uzbekistan Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports: Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
Table: Uzbekistan Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports: Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
Table: Uzbekistan Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports: Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
Table: Uzbekistan Refining - Production And Consumption: Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011- 2017
Table: Uzbekistan Refining - Production And Consumption: Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Upstream Risk/Reward Rating
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Refineries In Uzbekistan
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts & Bloomberg Analyst Consensus, Average Price (US$/bbl)
Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d)
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm)
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2016 (bcm)
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 (bcm)
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Ratings - Structure
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings - Methodology

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