United States Agribusiness Report Q1 2013

Publisher Name :
Date: 23-Jan-2013
No. of pages: 103

The US agricultural sector will be happy to see the end of the 2012 calendar year: The combined production growth of the country’s major grains and animal products is expected to be the worst in two decades. We are somewhat optimistic for the 2013 season, as we anticipate a strong rebound in corn and soybean production. We also forecast growth in the poultry sector due to moderating corn prices. We are particularly bullish cotton due to a higher area planted. We expect the beef sector to be the laggard in the livestock complex, and see strong downside risks to the 2013/14 US wheat crop. Given that we forecast generally stable consumption growth, we expect the US to remain the world’s largest food exporter over the coming years.

Key Trends

  • Soybean production growth to 2016/17:

    27.4% to 105.7mn tonnes. This is mainly owing to the increase in poultry production over the long term. This will create production incentives by driving demand for soybean, which is used as feed. Furthermore, livestock production is still expanding globally, driving feed export demand.

  • Corn consumption growth to 2017:

    6.9% to 298.7mn tonnes. This will be driven by increases in ethanol production – though this growth will be less steep than in the past few years – and an increase in feed use in the later years of our forecast period as the livestock sector picks up. Base effects are a key factor why the growth rate is not higher.

  • Poultry production growth to 2016/17:

    20.1% to 23.1mn tonnes. The US is the world’s second largest poultry exporter behind Brazil. As such, increased global demand for poultry, particularly from emerging markets, is likely to serve as a powerful production incentive.

  • 2013 real GDP growth:

    2.1% year-on-year (y-o-y), down from 2.3% in 2012; predicted to average 2.2% from 2012 until 2017.

  • Consumer price inflation:

    2.2% ave in 2013, up from 1.8% in 2012.

Industry Outlook

We see potential for the 2012 US Farm Bill to be extended for several months, which has occurred with previous bills, but see little chance that the bill will expire outright. Food stamps were the largest single part of the 2008 farm bill, and this would continue if the current bill is implemented. When the 2008 bill was passed in June of that year, food stamps comprised two-thirds of the projected total five-year net outlay (US$284bn). If the current bill were extended, the US Congressional Budget Office forecasts that food stamps would comprise 78% of all spending (US$772bn) over 10 years. We will be watching the fortunes of the 2013/14 US wheat crop in the coming weeks, as soil conditions remained the poorest in almost 30 years as of early December 2012. As of late November, almost a quarter of all soil was rated in either ‘poor’ or ‘very poor’ condition. There is not a direct correlation between early-season soil conditions and harvest totals, but given that the US is the world’s largest wheat exporter, changes in US supply represent upside risks to prices in 2013, even though the global wheat market is one of the world’s most diversified. We continue to forecast a slight decrease in US wheat output to 58.5mn tonnes in 2013/14 as supply reverts to historical averages. We continue to forecast lower US beef production and consumption in 2013, as poor pasture conditions and high grain prices lead to record low cattle inventories. Feedlot operators have been particularly squeezed by the recent spike in grain prices and volatility in feeder cattle prices. The low inventories, in turn, have caused wholesale and retail beef prices to rise, leading to reduced consumption at a time when beef demand is slowing amid increasing health consciousness. We expect major beef producers in the US to continue underperforming the S&P500 over the next few months. We continue to expect lower beef production and consumption in the US in 2012/13, with beef production being constrained by cattle inventories that are at their lowest levels since 1960..

United States Agribusiness Report Q1 2013

Table Of Contents

Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
United States Agriculture SWOT 7
United States Business Environment SWOT 7
Supply Demand Analysis 8
United States Grains Outlook 8
Table: United States Wheat Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 9
Table: United States Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 9
Table: United States Barley Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 9
Table: United States Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 11
Table: United States Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 12
Table: United States Barley Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 12
United States Dairy Outlook 13
Table: United States Milk Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 14
Table: United States Butter Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 14
Table: United States Cheese Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 14
Table: United States Milk Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 16
Table United States Butter Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 17
Table United States Cheese Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 17
United States Soybean Outlook 18
Table: United States Soybean Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 19
Table: United States Soybean Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 20
United States Sugar Outlook 21
Table: United States Sugar Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 21
Table: United States Sugar Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 24
United States Livestock Outlook 25
Table: United States Poultry Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 26
Table: United States Pork Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 26
Table: United States Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 26
Table: United States Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 27
Table: United States Pork Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 27
Table: United States Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 28
United States Cotton Outlook 28
Table: United States Cotton Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 29
Table: United States Cotton Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 31
Company Profiles 32
Monsanto Incorporated 32
Table: Monsanto Financial Results (US$mn), 2008-2012 41
Deere & Company 42
Table: John Deere Financial Data (US$mn), 2008-2012 50
Commodity Price Analysis 51
Monthly Softs Update 51
Table: BMI Commodity Price Strategy 58
Table: Agricultural Commodity Performance & Forecasts 59
Monthly Grains Update 60
Table: Agricultural Commodity Performance & Forecasts 68
Upstream Analysis 69
Americas GM Outlook 69
Americas Machinery Outlook 73
Americas Fertiliser Outlook 78
Downstream Analysis 82
Food 82
Food Consumption 82
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2017 82
Confectionery 83
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 84
Canned Food 84
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2017 85
Drink 86
Alcoholic Drinks 86
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 86
Beer 86
Spirits 87
Wine 88
Soft Drinks 89
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2008-2017 90
Hot Drinks 90
Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2017 92
Trade 92
Table: Food & Drink Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 93
Mass Grocery Retail 94
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2008-2017 95
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type 95
Country Snapshot 96
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 97
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 98
Table: The United States' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 99
Table: The United States' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 99
BMI Forecast Modelling 100
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 100

List Of Tables

Table: United States Wheat Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: United States Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: United States Barley Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: United States Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Table: United States Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Table: United States Barley Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Table: United States Milk Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: United States Butter Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: United States Cheese Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: United States Milk Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Table United States Butter Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Table United States Cheese Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Table: United States Soybean Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: United States Soybean Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Table: United States Sugar Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: United States Sugar Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Table: United States Poultry Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: United States Pork Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: United States Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: United States Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Table: United States Pork Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Table: United States Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Table: United States Cotton Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: United States Cotton Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Table: Monsanto Financial Results (US$mn), 2008-2012
Table: John Deere Financial Data (US$mn), 2008-2012
Table: BMI Commodity Price Strategy
Table: Agricultural Commodity Performance & Forecasts
Table: Agricultural Commodity Performance & Forecasts
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2017
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2017
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2008-2017
Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2017
Table: Food & Drink Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2008-2017
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: The United States' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: The United States' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020

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