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BMI View: Q312 data for the UK construction industry shows a deteriorating picture in year-on-year
terms. Consequently, we have further downgraded our estimate for growth to -7.7% for the year. The
data, combined with anecdotal evidence from industry participants, has also prompted us to revise down
our 2013 outlook, and we are now forecasting a 0.7% decline for the year.
Major developments in the sector:
Despite the first Q312 GDP estimate showing that the UK has emerged from its double dip recession, the
picture was less optimistic for the construction sector. In quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) terms the recession
which took hold of the industry over 2012 appeared to be easing, with industry output (gross value added)
down 2.5% q-o-q, compared to a 3% fall q-o-q in Q212. However, in year-on-year (y-o-y) terms a stark
divergence in trend was patent, with the industry contracting 10.8% compared to Q311, a continuation of
a steadily accelerating contraction. In the first nine months of 2012, the industry has contracted by an
average of 8.2% y-o-y, prompting us to further revise down our estimate for the year to -7.7%.