United Kingdom Freight Transport and Shipping Report 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 28-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 52

BMI View: We have adjusted down our trade forecasts for the UK following the Brexit vote, in line with a

downgrade of our expectations for the overall macro outlook. The main transmission mechanism within our

five-year forecast period is the FX volatility and stalled economic activity as uncertainty persists. More

pronounced or structural effects on trade of the actual disengagement of the UK from the European Union

will be reflected in the next decade. Rail freight will go in structural decline in terms of volumes carried as

the phasing out of coal power capacity hits its main commodity. Road freight volumes growth will soften as

oil price increase in coming years raise costs of transport.

Total Trade: We have downgraded our forecasts for UK real trade growth of 0.5% in 2017 and 0.8% in

2018 to 0.5% and 0.8%, from 3.0% and 2.8% previously. The downgrade reflects of our expectations of

slowing macroeconomic activity both in the UK and Europe, with the lead-up to Brexit playing a part in

trade slowdown, but not the sole factor.

Road freight: We have kept the growth forecasts steady and note a slight contraction in volumes carried via

heavy goods vehicles (HGV) in the coming years as fuel prices edge higher, increasing transport costs. e-

Commerce has been responsible for the steady growth of road freight, so any decline in consumer spending

would take a toll on the volumes carried.

United Kingdom Freight Transport and Shipping Report 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 5
Table: UK Freight Transport - Key Indicators 5
SWOT 7
Freight Transport 7
Industry Forecast 9
Trade Forecast 9
Table: Balance of Trade In Goods, GBPbn 12
Table: UK Key Trade Indicators (2013-2020) 26
Road Freight Forecast 27
Table: Road Freight (United Kingdom 2014-2020) 30
Air Freight Forecast 30
Table: Air Freight (United Kingdom 2014-2020) 31
Rail Freight Forecast 31
Table: Rail Freight Loses Intensify As Commodities Trade Falls 33
Market Overview 34
Company Profile 36
Freightliner 36
Virgin Atlantic Cargo 39
BA World Cargo 41
Demographic Forecast 44
Table: Population Headline Indicators (United Kingdom 1990-2025) 45
Table: Key Population Ratios (United Kingdom 1990-2025) 45
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (United Kingdom 1990-2025) 46
Table: Population By Age Group (United Kingdom 1990-2025) 46
Table: Population By Age Group % (United Kingdom 1990-2025) 47
Methodology 49
Industry Forecast Methodology 49
Sector-Specific Methodology 50
Sources 52

List of Tables

Table: UK Freight Transport - Key Indicators
Table: Balance of Trade In Goods, GBPbn
Table: UK Key Trade Indicators (2013-2020)
Table: Road Freight (United Kingdom 2014-2020)
Table: Air Freight (United Kingdom 2014-2020)
Table: Rail Freight Loses Intensify As Commodities Trade Falls
Table: Population Headline Indicators (United Kingdom 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (United Kingdom 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (United Kingdom 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (United Kingdom 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (United Kingdom 1990-2025)
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