United Kingdom Defence and Security Report 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 03-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 48

BMI View: Weaker economic growth as a result of the Brexit vote in 2016-2017 will likely force the MoD

to revise its plan for a 3.1% real term increase in defence spending out to 2020. Defence expenditure will

still remain above the 2% of GDP NATO-stipulated target, amid rising security threats from Russian

aggression, terrorism and cybercrime - allowing the Ministry of Defence to move ahead with key

procurement programmes. The Brexit vote will create uncertainty in the local defence sector and could lead

to reductions in FDI and R&D funding in the next few years. However, longer-term potential for industry

development and export growth remains strong, amid robust government support and as local companies'

technologically-advanced capabilities continue to attract investors.

Latest Updates

? Following the Brexit vote, our Country Risk (CR) team has downgraded its real GDP growth forecast for

the UK in 2016 and 2017 to 1.4% and 0.2% respectively - significantly below the forecasts used as a

basis for the Ministry of Defence (MoD)'s spending review. Consequently, we believe the MoD will have

to downwardly adjust its 3.1% real growth target for defence spending in the period to 2020.

? According to the 2015 Defence Equipment Plan (DEP), published in October, the MoD planned to spend

GBP68.5bn on the procurement of new equipment over 2015-2025. The SDSR, published in November

2015, added another GBP12bn out to 2020. However, with the pound having depreciated and overall

economic growth negatively impacted by the Brexit vote some procurement programmes considered nonessential

may see cuts or delays.

? The Brexit vote has created uncertainty regarding the future of the country's defence industry. This

uncertainty could, in the short-to-medium term negatively impact FDI into the local defence sector. It

could also limit, to some extent, EU funding for defence research and development (R&D) in the UK in

coming years.

? We expect the Brexit vote to have a relatively limited impact on the UK's defence industry collaboration

with the rest of Europe, as such programmes are independent of the EU, usually organised directly by the

participating states or through OCCAR.

United Kingdom Defence and Security Report 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Defence Expenditure Forecasts (United Kingdom 2015-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Defence Expenditure 11
Table: Defence Expenditure (United Kingdom 2014-2019) 12
Table: Defence Expenditure (United Kingdom 2020-2025) 12
Defence Trade 14
Exports 15
Imports 15
Industry Risk Reward Index 17
United Kingdom Defence Risk Reward Index 17
Table: Europe - Defence Industry Risk Reward Index 17
Rewards 18
Risks 19
Market Overview 20
Defence Market Overview 20
Domestic Defence Sector 20
Domestic Market 24
Armed Forces Overview 27
Armed Forces 27
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (United Kingdom 2008-2015) 27
Table: United Kingdom - UN/EU MISSION CONTRIBUTIONS 31
Security Overview 32
Company Profile 37
BAE Systems 37
GKN 39
QinetiQ 41
Rolls Royce 42
Methodology 44
Industry Forecast Methodology 44
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 45
Sector-Specific Methodology 47
Table: Defence Risk/Reward Index Indicators 47
Weighting 48
Table: Weighting of Defence Risk Reward Index 48

List of Tables

Table: Headline Defence Expenditure Forecasts (United Kingdom 2015-2020)
Table: Defence Expenditure (United Kingdom 2014-2019)
Table: Defence Expenditure (United Kingdom 2020-2025)
Table: Europe - Defence Industry Risk Reward Index
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (United Kingdom 2008-2015)
Table: United Kingdom - UN/EU MISSION CONTRIBUTIONS
Table: Defence Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting of Defence Risk Reward Index
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