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BMI View: This quarter our forecasts remain virtually unchanged, and we continue to hold an upbeat
outlook for the UAE power sector - this is driven by the government's efforts to expand its power
capacity. As corroborated by recent developments, we continue to expect the UAE to focus on expanding its
nascent nuclear and solar industries, which will result in these two sectors making a much greater
contribution to the country's electricity capacity and generation mix over our forecast period. While solar
and nuclear gain traction, the role of natural gas in the power mix will diminish, freeing up gas for export.
Yet we remain sceptical about the ability of the country to meet its targets with the expected speed.
Key Trends And Developments
? Nuclear power generation will be a key component of the UAE's power mix diversification strategy over
the next decade. We believe increasing natural gas imports, due to strong power consumption growth and
heavy reliance on gas-fired power generation, will be the key driver of such efforts. The continued
growth in gas demand will reinforce government support for diversification, adding tailwinds to nuclear
power, as well as renewables, over the longer term. Despite the dominance of natural gas, nuclear and
renewables will grow significantly over our 10-year forecast period, as a strong project pipeline for
nuclear reactors and solar power plants begins to go online.
? The UAE's position as a GCC regional hotspot for solar development will remain unrivalled over our 10-
year forecast period, as advantageous climatic conditions, the increasing cost competitiveness of solar
power and strong government commitment to power mix diversification drive growth. The strengthening
project pipeline is testament to this view.
? Inefficient consumption of electricity and a reliance on energy-intensive water desalination plants support
our bullish outlook for power consumption in the UAE over the next decade. We expect the government
to aim to curb such growth through boosting energy efficiency - efforts we believe will centre on
implementing measures that ensure smarter consumption of electricity and water. We expect
opportunities to increasingly be on offer for companies that operate in this space, and in turn, this will
present a downside risk to our power consumption forecast.