United Arab Emirates Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 21-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 75

BMI View: While we forecast UAE's oil and gas production to experience sustained growth over the next

five years, additional output will be subsumed by strongly expanding domestic demand. As such, we believe

the UAE will grow increasingly dependent on imports of pipeline gas and LNG across the forecast period,

while its crude exports will see a minor decline too. That said, recently ramped-up domestic refining

capacity will turn the country into a net exporter of refined products from 2016 onward.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

? This quarter we have maintained our 2016-2025 forecasts for UAE's oil and gas reserves, which we

expect to decline by 12.6% and 12.0% respectively. Considering that the country's acreage is well

explored, we believe that only real upside potential comes from unconventionals.

• Driven by field expansion and enhanced oil recovery (EOR) techniques, UAE's oil production is set to

peak at 3.98mn bbl in 2022, before declining slightly to 3.97mn bbl by the end of our forecast period.

• Supported by new production from Bab gas project, Zora and Shah gas fields, UAE's gas output is

forecast to peak at 75.1bcm in 2021, followed by gradual declines due to maturing fields.

• The expansion of the Ruwais facility increased the country's nameplate refining capacity to 1.12mn bbl in

2015. We forecast the opening of a modular refinery in Fujairah to increase this figure by another 7,500b/

d in 2016. At the moment we do not expect further additions until the end of our forecast period.

• In line with these upgrades, we expect the country's refining products output to increase from an

estimated 557,260b/d in 2015 and we forecast this to rise to around 780,170b/d by 2016. Rising

utilisation rates are expected to lift the overall output to around 958,000b/d in 2025.

• Increased domestic refining capacity is expected to decrease crude exports from an estimated 3.2mn b/d

in 2015 to around 3.0mn b/d in 2025.

United Arab Emirates Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Upstream Projects 13
Table: United Arab Emirates Major Upstream Projects 13
Upstream Production - Oil 16
Latest Updates 16
Structural Trends 16
Table: Oil Production (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019) 18
Table: Oil Production (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025) 18
Upstream Production - Gas 19
Latest Updates 19
Structural Trends 19
Table: Gas Production (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019) 21
Table: Gas Production (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025) 22
Refining 23
Latest Updates 23
Structural Trends 23
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019) 25
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025) 25
Refined Fuels Consumption 26
Latest Updates 26
Structural Trends 26
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019) 30
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025) 31
Gas Consumption 32
Latest Updates 32
Structural Trends 32
Table: Gas Consumption (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019) 35
Table: Gas Consumption (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025) 35
Trade - Oil 36
Latest Updates 36
Structural Trends: Crude Oil 36
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2014-2020) 37
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025) 38
Structural Trends: Refined Fuels 38
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019) 39
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025) 40
Trade - Gas (Pipeline & LNG) 41
Latest Updates 41
Structural Trends 41
Table: Gas Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019) 42
Table: Gas Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025) 43
Industry Risk/Reward Index 44
Middle East - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 44
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 44
Upstream: Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment 45
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 45
Downstream: Limited Opportunities 47
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 47
UAE - Risk/Reward Index 50
UAE Upstream Index 50
UAE Downstream Index 50
Market Overview 51
United Arab Emirates Energy Market Overview 51
Regulatory Structure 51
Fiscal Regime 51
Table: UAE Main Fiscal Terms 51
Licensing Regime 52
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 53
Oil Refineries 53
Table: Refineries In The UAE 53
Oil Export Terminals 53
Table: UAE Export Terminals 53
Competitive Landscape 54
Competitive Landscape Summary 54
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies In The UAE's Oil & Gas Sector 55
Company Profile 56
ADNOC 56
Table: Major Upstream Assets In UAE 57
Table: Key Financial Data 57
Regional Overview 58
Middle East Oil & Gas Regional Overview 58
Oil Production: Output On Upward Trajectory 58
Oil Consumption: Gas And Subsidy Reform Tempering Demand 61
Table: Gasoline-95 Pump Price June 2015 & March 2016 (USD/Litre) 61
Refining Capacity: Mega Refineries To Outcompete 63
Gas Production: Upstream Focus Swaying To Gas 64
Gas Consumption: Industrial Growth And Power Drive Demand 66
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Production, Refining Capacity & Trade 67
Glossary 68
Table: Glossary Of Terms 68
Methodology 70
Industry Forecast Methodology 70
Source 72
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 72
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 74
Table: Weighting 75

List of Tables

Table: Headline Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2014-2020)
Table: United Arab Emirates Major Upstream Projects
Table: Oil Production (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019)
Table: Oil Production (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Production (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Production (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025)
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019)
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Consumption (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Consumption (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2014-2020)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025)
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Table: UAE Main Fiscal Terms
Table: Refineries In The UAE
Table: UAE Export Terminals
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies In The UAE's Oil & Gas Sector
Table: Major Upstream Assets In UAE
Table: Key Financial Data
Table: Gasoline-95 Pump Price June 2015 & March 2016 (USD/Litre)
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Production, Refining Capacity & Trade
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting
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