Ukraine Telecommunications Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 28-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 63

BMI View: We have made some minor downwards revisions for the Ukrainian mobile market to account

for the contractions in H1 2016. We are of the opinion that organic subscriber growth in the market will

remain elusive out to 2020. Furthermore, the market faces significant headwinds, ranging from a weak

currency, low consumer spending ability, market saturation and an uncertain political climate. It is our

view that operators hold a significant number of inactive accounts that will be shed in the coming quarters.

Growth and revenues to 2020 and beyond will be driven by 3G and advanced data technology uptake as the

national mobile market begins to advance and mature in technological terms.

Latest Updates And Industry Developments

? The mobile market served 61.152mn subscribers at end of Q216, down by 2.8% y-o-y. We have made

further minor downwards adjustments to our mobile forecasts and will monitor the market in the months

ahead before making further revisions. We estimate that the mobile market will decline modestly over

the course of our forecast period, out to 2020. By end of 2020, we estimate the mobile market to

reach 57.3mn.

? 3G uptake throughout the 2016-2020 period will be strong and will constitute the primary engine of

mobile growth in the mobile market. The real opportunities in this segment lie in content and services.

We expect a healthy 3G uptake rate over the course of our present forecast period out to 2020. By

end-2020, our forecast envisages a total of 27.81mn 3G subscribers, up from 5.56mn at YE15.

Ukraine Telecommunications Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Latest Updates And Industry Developments 8
SWOT 9
Telecoms 9
Industry Forecast 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Ukraine 2013-2020) 14
Industry Risk Reward Index 16
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index 16
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Telecoms Risk/Reward Index, Q4 2016 18
Industry Risk/Reward Index 19
Market Overview 21
Market Drivers And Trends 21
Mobile 21
Table: Ukraine Operator Revenues 2013-2016 (USDmn & UAHmn) 26
Wireline Voice & Broadband 26
Regulatory Development 30
Industry Risks 30
Main Development: 3G Auction & Service Launch 31
Additional Developments 32
Competitive Landscape 34
Table: Ukraine - Key Telecoms Players 34
Mobile Operator Data 34
Table: Mobile Market Overview 34
Table: VimpelCom 35
Table: MTS 37
Table: Lifecell 38
Company Profile 40
Lifecell 40
MTS Ukraine 43
Ukrtelecom 46
VimpelCom (Beeline/Kyivstar) 49
Demographic Forecast 52
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Ukraine 1990-2025) 53
Table: Key Population Ratios (Ukraine 1990-2025) 53
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Ukraine 1990-2025) 54
Table: Population By Age Group (Ukraine 1990-2025) 54
Table: Population By Age Group % (Ukraine 1990-2025) 55
Glossary 57
Table: Glossary Of Terms 57
Methodology 59
Industry Forecast Methodology 59
Sources 61
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 61
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators 62
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 63

List of Tables

Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Ukraine 2013-2020)
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Telecoms Risk/Reward Index, Q4 2016
Table: Ukraine Operator Revenues 2013-2016 (USDmn & UAHmn)
Table: Ukraine - Key Telecoms Players
Table: Mobile Market Overview
Table: VimpelCom
Table: MTS
Table: Lifecell
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Ukraine 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Ukraine 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Ukraine 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Ukraine 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Ukraine 1990-2025)
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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