Ukraine Real Estate Report 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 14-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 49

BMI View: A return to GDP growth signals that the economy has crawled out of recession, and with

greater public acceptance in the newly established Groysman government, we believe there is potential for

increased investment into the economy over the next few years. However, continued armed conflict along

the eastern border, low GDP per capita and high unemployment serve as warnings to potential investors in

the commercial real estate sector.

The commercial real estate market will remain stagnant as a result of ongoing economic, political and

security issues. Ukraine is still suffering from tensions with pro-Russian separatists, which has left a

business void in eastern parts of the country and reduced investor confidence in the commercial real estate

market. Furthermore, the economy is reliant on bailout funds from the IMF in order to stimulate the

economy and get spending to rise. The next bailout is due in Q316, but there is expected to be a delay, with

the IMF board considering the disbursement of funds in August 2016.

Nevertheless, the newly established government of Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysmon has done well to

gain confidence from the public. Meanwhile, the hryvnia has performed well against the US dollar in the

first few months of 2016. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) noted that there is also renewed confidence

in the banking sector, with an improving lending rate, more deposits and greater margins of foreign

currency entering the country. Overall, this indicates that the commercial real estate sector looks set to

bounce back from a turbulent few years, but greater confidence is needed in the general market before

investment levels return to pre-crisis levels, and we believe rental rates will stagnate across the board for the

rest of 2016 and into 2017.

The capital, Kiev, is the economic centre of the country, and has the largest population. In Kharkov, the

second largest city, in the north east, the property market is dominated by industrial space. Dnipropetrovsk,

Ukraine's third largest city, to the south east of Kiev, is dominated by industrial and office properties and

has been the centre for much of Ukraine's military development.

Ukraine Real Estate Report 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Political 10
Economic 11
Operational Risk 12
Industry Forecast 14
Office Forecast 14
Table: Office Rental Rates, 2011-2016 (per sq m per month) 16
Table: Office Yields, 2011-2020 (%) 17
Retail Forecast 18
Table: Retail Rental Rates, 2011-2016 (per sq m per month) 21
Table: Rental Yields, 2011-2020 (%) 22
Industrial Forecast 22
Table: Industrial Rental Rates, 2011-2016 (per sq m per month) 25
Table: Rental Yields, 2011-2020 (%) 26
Residential And Non-Residential Building - Outlook And Overview 27
Latest Updates 27
Table: Residential And Non-Residential Building Industry Data (Ukraine 2015-2025) 27
Structural Trends 27
Table: Construction And Social Infrastructure Key Projects 30
Macroeconomic Forecast 31
Economic Analysis 31
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 36
Industry Risk/Reward Index 36
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Real Estate Risk/Reward Index 36
Rewards 36
Risks 37
Competitive Landscape 38
Property Developers 38
Property Managers 38
Demographic Forecast 40
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Ukraine 1990-2025) 41
Table: Key Population Ratios (Ukraine 1990-2025) 41
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Ukraine 1990-2025) 42
Table: Population By Age Group (Ukraine 1990-2025) 42
Table: Population By Age Group % (Ukraine 1990-2025) 43
Methodology 45
Industry Forecast Methodology 45
Sources 46
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 47
Table: Real Estate Risk/Reward Index Indicators 48
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 49

List of Tables

Table: Office Rental Rates, 2011-2016 (per sq m per month)
Table: Office Yields, 2011-2020 (%)
Table: Retail Rental Rates, 2011-2016 (per sq m per month)
Table: Rental Yields, 2011-2020 (%)
Table: Industrial Rental Rates, 2011-2016 (per sq m per month)
Table: Rental Yields, 2011-2020 (%)
Table: Residential And Non-Residential Building Industry Data (Ukraine 2015-2025)
Table: Construction And Social Infrastructure Key Projects
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Real Estate Risk/Reward Index
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Ukraine 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Ukraine 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Ukraine 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Ukraine 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Ukraine 1990-2025)
Table: Real Estate Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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