Ukraine Power Report Q3 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 03-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 53

BMI View: The immediate outlook for electricity generation in Ukraine is poor, with an official state of

energy emergency still in place in parts of the country. Despite a ceasefire agreement in 2015, there are

reports of continued fighting in eastern Ukraine. That said, we expect power generation to stabilise in 2016

as conditions improve marginally, and see total generation returning to near-2014 levels.

Latest Updates & Structural Trends

? In the longer term, production and consumption will rise as the economy starts to recover and processes

of integration with the EU bring about a partial liberalization of the power sector and investment from

abroad. This will create opportunities for investment in Ukraine's power sector. However, multiple

barriers stand in the way of developing the sector, including corruption, vested interests and the fractious

political environment, that electricity production will fall far short of Ukraine's potential.

? Ukraine's natural gas imports approximately halved over the course of January-February 2016 (versus the

same period in the previous year), with the entirety of them coming from the European Union rather than

Russia. The difficult import outlook for natural gas suggests downside risks to our forecast for gas-fired

generation to stabilise in 2016. The short-term outlook for Ukraine's coal-fired power sector is poor due

to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine's main coal-producing regions in the east of the country. Around twothirds

of Ukraine's mines have ceased activity, forcing Ukraine to import coal to cover its needs.

? As a result of the uncertainty surrounding Ukraine's long-term energy supply, the national energy

company Ukrenergo has imposed rolling blackouts and suspended exports to Belarus and Russianoccupied

Crimea. Ukraine has also started to import electricity from Russia, but this is vulnerable to

political conditions, specifically Russia's demand that Ukraine continues supplying electricity to the

rebel-held Donbass region.

Ukraine Power Report Q3 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Ukraine 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Ukraine Snapshot 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Ukraine 2015-2020) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Ukraine 2020-2025) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 11
Ukraine Power Forecast Scenario 12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2014-2019) 16
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2020-2025) 17
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2014-2019) 18
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2020-2025) 19
Electricity Consumption 20
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2014-2019) 20
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2020-2025) 20
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports 22
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2014-2019) 22
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2020-2025) 22
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2014-2019) 22
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2020-2025) 23
Industry Risk/Reward Index 25
CEE Power Risk/Reward Index 25
Table: CEE Risk/Reward Index 31
Ukraine Power Risk/Reward Index 32
Rewards 32
Risks 32
Market Overview 33
Key Policies And Market Structure 33
Ukraine Power Projects Database 35
Table: Largest Projects By Capacity 36
Competitive Landscape 38
Ukrenergo 39
AES 39
Regional Overview 40
CEE Power Regional Overview 40
Glossary 47
Table: Glossary Of Terms 47
Methodology 48
Methodology And Sources 48
Industry Forecast Methodology 48
Sources 51
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 51
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 52
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 53

List of Tables

Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Ukraine 2015-2021)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Ukraine 2015-2020)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Ukraine 2020-2025)
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2020-2025)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2014-2019)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2020-2025)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2020-2025)
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2014-2019)
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2020-2025)
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2014-2019)
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2020-2025)
Table: CEE Risk/Reward Index
Table: Largest Projects By Capacity
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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