Ukraine Petrochemicals Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 14-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 73

BMI Industry View

The Ukrainian petrochemicals industry will remain in crisis, with Lukoil seeking to withdraw from the

sector, announcing that it is putting its local polymers subsidiary, Karpatneftekhim, up for sale. With much

of the country's petrochemicals industry effectively mothballed and the industrial sector in the doldrums,

any growth will come from a very low base. Consumption will increasingly require imports, although this

will be moderated by currency depreciation.

Ukraine's largest petrochemicals producers - the fertiliser producer Stirol, which operates in the troubled

east, and Lukoil-owned Karpatneftekhim - have been shut, with no firm plans to re-open them at the time

of writing. As a result, we have removed from our forecast Ukraine's ammonia, urea, polyethylene and

polyvinyl chloride (PVC) capacities.

On the demand side, low consumer confidence and spending and a weak business investment will mean

domestic demand will not be able to pick up the slack from falling export demand. The majority of

manufacturers operating in Ukraine are heavily linked to the Russian market. Thus, the breakdown in

Russia-Ukraine relations due to the ongoing political and economic malaise in the country presents the most

severe downside pressure for our production forecasts, as trade relations between Ukraine and Russia are

likely to deteriorate further without a clear solution to the crisis.

? In H116, imports of polyethylene (PE) increased 33% y-o-y to 128,000 tonnes, according to MRC

Datascope. Imports were led by high density polyethylene (HDPE) and linear low density polyethylene

(LLDPE). Meanwhile, imports of polypropylene (PP) into Ukraine increased 36% y-o-y to about 57,600

tonnes.

? In H116, monthly rubber output growth averaged 66.5% y-o-y, but plastic output grew just 3.3%. The

main factor was base effects, with rubber having seen a sharper drop in previous quarters. However,

plastic has yet to make this recovery, largely due to the operational problems at the country's polymer

plants.

Ukraine Petrochemicals Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 8
Political 10
Economic 11
Operational Risk 12
Industry Forecast 14
Table: Ukraine Petrochemicals Forecasts 18
Macroeconomic Forecasts 19
Economic Analysis 19
Industry Risk/Reward Index 24
Europe Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index 24
Table: European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index (scores out of 100) 30
Ukraine Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index 31
Market Overview 32
Industry Trends And Developments 34
Upstream 36
Table: Refineries In Ukraine 37
Company Profile 38
Karpatneftekhim 38
Rosneft 41
Stirol 43
Regional Overview 45
Europe Overview 45
Global Industry Overview 56
Demographic Forecast 63
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Ukraine 1990-2025) 64
Table: Key Population Ratios (Ukraine 1990-2025) 64
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Ukraine 1990-2025) 65
Table: Population By Age Group (Ukraine 1990-2025) 65
Table: Population By Age Group % (Ukraine 1990-2025) 66
Glossary 68
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms 68
Methodology 69
Industry Forecast Methodology 69
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 71
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators 72
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 73

List of Tables

Table: Ukraine Petrochemicals Forecasts
Table: European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index (scores out of 100)
Table: Refineries In Ukraine
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Ukraine 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Ukraine 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Ukraine 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Ukraine 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Ukraine 1990-2025)
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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