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BMI View: A volatile security situation and continuing geopolitical tensions hamper exploration and
production activities in Ukraine. Regulatory challenges, illustrated by recent tax hikes on oil, gas and
mineral extraction, are expected to act as a further deterrent to investment in Ukraine's oil and gas sector.
Despite Ukraine's significant gas supply diversification efforts, we expect the country will continue to
depend to some extent on Russian gas supplies over the coming winters.
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts:
- We maintain our forecasts for oil and gas reserves this quarter. However, we note that Chevron and
Shell's exits from their respective shale gas exploration projects create increasing downside risk to our
gas reserves forecasts.
- In July 2016, it was reported that a company called Yuzgas BV, set up by investment fund Emerstone
Energy, won the contract for the Yuzivska PSA. However, a specific investment plan or planned
investment sums were not cited.
- Downside risk to oil production exists over the coming year from a tax dispute between Ukrnafta and the
Ukrainian state. In March 2016 the company received a formal notification from the State Service of
Geology & Mineral Resources of Ukraine that 16 of its licenses could be suspended, in addition to three
recent suspensions. According to the company, the suspension of these licenses would stop production of
about 6,500b/d of crude oil, a significant proportion of the company's production and of the country's
total 38,000b/d crude and condensates production in 2016.