Ukraine Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 05-Oct-2016
No. of pages: 81

BMI View: A volatile security situation and continuing geopolitical tensions hamper exploration and

production activities in Ukraine. Regulatory challenges, illustrated by recent tax hikes on oil, gas and

mineral extraction, are expected to act as a further deterrent to investment in Ukraine's oil and gas sector.

Despite Ukraine's significant gas supply diversification efforts, we expect the country will continue to

depend to some extent on Russian gas supplies over the coming winters.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts:

- We maintain our forecasts for oil and gas reserves this quarter. However, we note that Chevron and

Shell's exits from their respective shale gas exploration projects create increasing downside risk to our

gas reserves forecasts.

- In July 2016, it was reported that a company called Yuzgas BV, set up by investment fund Emerstone

Energy, won the contract for the Yuzivska PSA. However, a specific investment plan or planned

investment sums were not cited.

- Downside risk to oil production exists over the coming year from a tax dispute between Ukrnafta and the

Ukrainian state. In March 2016 the company received a formal notification from the State Service of

Geology & Mineral Resources of Ukraine that 16 of its licenses could be suspended, in addition to three

recent suspensions. According to the company, the suspension of these licenses would stop production of

about 6,500b/d of crude oil, a significant proportion of the company's production and of the country's

total 38,000b/d crude and condensates production in 2016.

Ukraine Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Ukraine 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil & Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Upstream Projects 15
Table: Key Upstream Projects In Ukraine 15
Upstream Production - Oil 16
Latest Updates 16
Structural Trends 16
Table: Oil Production (Ukraine 2014-2019) 18
Table: Oil Production (Ukraine 2020-2025) 18
Upstream Production - Gas 19
Latest Updates 19
Structural Trends 19
Table: Gas Production (Ukraine 2014-2019) 22
Table: Gas Production (Ukraine 2020-2025) 22
Refining 23
Latest Updates 23
Structural Trends 23
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Ukraine 2014-2019) 25
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Ukraine 2020-2025) 25
Refined Fuel Consumption 26
Latest Updates 26
Structural Trends 26
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Ukraine 2014-2019) 28
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Ukraine 2020-2025) 28
Gas Consumption 29
Latest Updates 29
Structural Trends 29
Table: Gas Consumption (Ukraine 2014-2019) 32
Table: Gas Consumption (Ukraine 2020-2025) 32
Trade - Oil 33
Crude Oil 33
Latest Updates 33
Structural Trends 33
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ukraine 2014-2020) 35
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ukraine 2020-2025) 35
Refined Fuels 35
Latest Updates 35
Structural Trends 35
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ukraine 2014-2019) 37
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ukraine 2020-2025) 37
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 38
Latest Updates 38
Structural Trends 38
Table: Reverse Flow Gas Pipeline Connection Capacity From EU To Ukraine 41
Table: Gas Net Exports (Ukraine 2014-2019) 42
Table: Gas Net Exports (Ukraine 2020-2025) 42
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 43
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 43
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward 43
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Indices 44
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index 47
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market 47
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index 50
Ukraine - Risk/Reward Index 51
Market Overview 53
Ukraine Energy Market Overview 53
Regulatory Structure 53
Fiscal Regime 54
Table: Ukraine Fiscal Regime Terms 54
Licensing Regime 55
Table: Ukraine Licensing Regime 56
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 57
Table: Refineries In Ukraine 57
Oil Pipelines 58
LNG Terminals 59
Gas Storage 60
Gas Pipelines 60
Competitive Landscape 63
Competitive Landscape Summary 63
Table: Key Players - Ukraine Oil And Gas Sector 64
Table: Key Upstream Players 64
Table: Key Downstream Players 64
Company Profile 65
Naftogaz Ukrainy 65
Table: Key Financial Data (UAHmn) 66
Regional Overview 67
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview 67
Oil Production: Oil Powerhouses Falter On Weak Prices 67
Oil Consumption: Long Term Growth To Be Gentle 68
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Key To Competing 69
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Demand-Dependent 70
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions 71
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies 72
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Production & Consumption, Refining Capacity & Trade 73
Glossary 74
Table: Glossary Of Terms 74
Methodology 76
Industry Forecast Methodology 76
Source 78
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 78
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 80
Table: Weighting 81

List of Tables

Table: Headline Forecasts (Ukraine 2014-2020)
Table: Key Upstream Projects In Ukraine
Table: Oil Production (Ukraine 2014-2019)
Table: Oil Production (Ukraine 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Production (Ukraine 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Production (Ukraine 2020-2025)
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Ukraine 2014-2019)
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Ukraine 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Ukraine 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Ukraine 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Consumption (Ukraine 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Consumption (Ukraine 2020-2025)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ukraine 2014-2020)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ukraine 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ukraine 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ukraine 2020-2025)
Table: Reverse Flow Gas Pipeline Connection Capacity From EU To Ukraine
Table: Gas Net Exports (Ukraine 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Ukraine 2020-2025)
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Indices
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Ukraine Fiscal Regime Terms
Table: Ukraine Licensing Regime
Table: Refineries In Ukraine
Table: Key Players - Ukraine Oil And Gas Sector
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Table: Key Financial Data (UAHmn)
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Production & Consumption, Refining Capacity & Trade
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting
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