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BMI View: The construction industry in Ukraine continues to face an unsettled outlook. While the
country has a substantial infrastructure deficit, which has been exacerbated by the ongoing conflict in the
east, the lack of public spending capacity and significant risks to private investment means little growth
will be realised in the construction sector. Ukraine will remain heavily reliant on the provision of
regional funding to drive forward transport and energy projects as the government contends with the
falling value of the local currency as well as high rates of inflation, which mean there is little no public
investment available for infrastructure.
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
? Ukraine's economy is expected to remain sluggish in 2016 as the escalation in conflict derails a rebound
in industrial production. The resurge in the conflict poses a significant downside risk to our current
forecasts for the infrastructure sector: not only will existing infrastructure sustain further damage, but
vital and already restricted government resources will now be further curtailed.
? The solar power sector may be one of the few bright spots in Ukraine's construction market. In July 2016
the government announced plans to develop the uninhabitable land around Chernobyl into a large-scale
solar farm totalling 4GW. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) is
reportedly considering providing funding for the project in which two US investment firms and four
Canadian energy companies are also reportedly expressing an interest.
The EBRD is also a major source of financing for transport projects in Ukraine, including road and rail
projects which will support some growth in value over the medium term. Overall however, this growth
will not be sufficient to keep Ukraine's construction industry in positive territory and following limited
growth of 1% in 2016 we expect to see further market contractions over our forecast period to 2025.