BMI View: We retain our generally negative outlook for Ukraine's agricultural sector in 2016 owing to a
range of concerns. All agricultural markets will be negatively affected by the poor macroeconomic
fundamentals in Ukraine. There will be limited investment into the country over the coming quarters given
the unstable political and economic situation, which will affect agricultural production over our forecast
period. Russia's ban on imports from Ukraine will weigh on production for the dairy and livestock
industries, as Russia represents one of Ukraine's largest agricultural export markets. Furthermore,
significant currency depreciation will limit imports, hitting input use and domestic investment. However, we
believe that Ukrainian farmers will fail to benefit from the opportunities linked to this weaker currency due
to export restrictions and lack of resources to scale up production in the medium term.
? Corn production will decline by 18.0% in 2015/16 to reach a total value of 23.3mn tonnes.
? We are estimating the wheat crop in 2016/17 to decline by 8.3% to reach 25.0mn tonnes.
? The livestock and dairy sectors will perform poorly in 2015/16 owing to unsound macroeconomic