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BMI View: Uganda's tourism market offers significant growth potential. The Ugandan government is
taking significant steps to promote the industry, particularly to local travellers. Arrivals are set to increase
steadily over our five-year forecast period to 2020. However, we do forecast a decrease in tourism-related
receipts due to increasing arrivals from poorer source markets, with visitors unlikely to spend as much as
visitors from more affluent regions.
Key Updates And Forecsts
? We expect steady growth in international tourism arrivals to Uganda in 2016, with the inbound tourism
market forecast to increase by 3.1% to reach over 1.3mn. Further growth is expected over the forecast
period, with arrivals expected to reach nearly 1.5mn in 2020.
? Uganda is heavily dependent on neighbouring source markets for its tourism arrivals, as it is an up-andcoming
lower-end tourism destination. We are seeing an increase in arrivals from regional neighbours
such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo and South Sudan, whose travellers will not contribute to
the tourism industry as much as travellers from more affluent markets.
? We expect positive growth for the hotels sector, as there are a number of international brands that are
investing or expanding in the country over the next few years. This sends a positive signal that investors
are seeing growth potential in the market.