Uganda Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 31-Aug-2016
No. of pages: 77

BMI View: Despite delays to the Hoima refinery start-up date, we have not yet altered our forecast for

crude output, which we still expect from 2020. This is largely leveraged on the April 2016 decision to

proceed with the Uganda-Tanzania oil pipeline route, instead of the originally planned Uganda-Hoima

(Kenya) pipeline route. Nevertheless, we highlight risks to our crude oil production timeline still lies to the

downside, given the risks to infrastructure projects which remain.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

? With reserves of 2.5bn barrels of crude, Uganda has Sub-Saharan Africa's fourth-largest crude reserves,

behind Nigeria, Angola and South Sudan. There is limited short-term upside risk to reserves: current

exploration and appraisal campaigns have reached an end and new exploration will be delayed until more

concrete progress is made towards developing existing discoveries. Limited interest in the ongoing

licensing round will delay short to medium term new exploration.

• After years of delays, the Ugandan state minister for minerals reported in June 2016 that the country

should issue six production licenses to Tullow Oil and Total before the end of the summer. This is

positive news after years of uncertainty.

• This quarter, we have delayed our forecast for the start-up of the Hoima refinery to 2021 following the

failure of the Ugandan government and preferred bidder RT Global, to come to an agreement. The

change represents an additional year delay to our previous forecast and is three years beyond the

government's initial 2018 target launch (see 'refining section' of this report).

Uganda Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Uganda 2014-2020) 7
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts 7
SWOT 9
Oil & Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Upstream Projects 15
Table: Upstream Project Database 15
Upstream Production - Oil 16
Latest Updates 16
Structural Trends 16
Table: Applications Made For Production Licences In Uganda 18
Oil Production Forecast: Crude Project Not Derailed By Hoima Set-Back 21
Table: Oil Production (Uganda 2014-2019) 21
Table: Oil Production (Uganda 2020-2025) 21
Upstream Production - Gas 22
Latest Updates 22
Structural Trends 22
Table: Gas Production (Uganda 2014-2019) 23
Table: Gas Production (Uganda 2020-2025) 23
Refining 24
Latest Updates 24
Structural Trends 24
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Uganda 2014-2019) 27
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Uganda 2020-2025) 28
Refined Fuels Consumption 29
Latest Updates 29
Structural Trends 29
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Uganda 2014-2019) 31
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Uganda 2020-2025) 31
Gas Consumption 32
Latest Updates 32
Structural Trends 32
Table: Gas Consumption (Uganda 2014-2019) 33
Table: Gas Consumption (Uganda 2020-2025) 33
Trade - Oil 34
Crude Oil Trade 34
Latest Updates 34
Structural Trends 34
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Uganda 2014-2020) 37
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Uganda 2020-2025) 37
Refined Fuels Trade 38
Latest Updates 38
Structural Trends 38
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Uganda 2014-2019) 40
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Uganda 2020-2025) 40
Industry Risk Reward Index 41
Africa - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 41
Table: BMI Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 41
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential 44
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index 44
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity 47
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index 47
Uganda Risk/Reward Index 49
Market Overview 51
Uganda Energy Market Overview 51
Regulatory Structure 51
Political Regime 53
Fiscal Regime 54
Table: Uganda Fiscal Regime 54
Licensing Regime 54
Table: Uganda Licensing Regime 54
Licensing Rounds 55
Table: Current Licences 55
Oil & Gas Infrastructure 56
Oil Refineries 56
Table: Uganda Refinery 56
Oil Storage Facilities 56
Table: Uganda Main Oil Storage Facilities 56
Oil Pipeline 57
Table: Uganda Oil Pipelines 57
Company Profile 58
Tullow Oil 58
Latest Updates 58
Company Overview 58
Table: Major Upstream Assets in Uganda 59
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 59
Regional Overview 60
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil 60
Table: Africa Oil & Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade 69
Glossary 70
Table: Glossary Of Terms 70
Methodology 72
Industry Forecast Methodology 72
Source 74
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 74
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 76
Table: Weighting 77

List of Tables

Table: Headline Forecasts (Uganda 2014-2020)
Table: Upstream Project Database
Table: Applications Made For Production Licences In Uganda
Table: Oil Production (Uganda 2014-2019)
Table: Oil Production (Uganda 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Production (Uganda 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Production (Uganda 2020-2025)
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Uganda 2014-2019)
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Uganda 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Uganda 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Uganda 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Consumption (Uganda 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Consumption (Uganda 2020-2025)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Uganda 2014-2020)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Uganda 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Uganda 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Uganda 2020-2025)
Table: BMI Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Uganda Fiscal Regime
Table: Uganda Licensing Regime
Table: Current Licences
Table: Uganda Refinery
Table: Uganda Main Oil Storage Facilities
Table: Uganda Oil Pipelines
Table: Major Upstream Assets in Uganda
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn)
Table: Africa Oil & Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting
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