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BMI View: Despite delays to the Hoima refinery start-up date, we have not yet altered our forecast for
crude output, which we still expect from 2020. This is largely leveraged on the April 2016 decision to
proceed with the Uganda-Tanzania oil pipeline route, instead of the originally planned Uganda-Hoima
(Kenya) pipeline route. Nevertheless, we highlight risks to our crude oil production timeline still lies to the
downside, given the risks to infrastructure projects which remain.
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
? With reserves of 2.5bn barrels of crude, Uganda has Sub-Saharan Africa's fourth-largest crude reserves,
behind Nigeria, Angola and South Sudan. There is limited short-term upside risk to reserves: current
exploration and appraisal campaigns have reached an end and new exploration will be delayed until more
concrete progress is made towards developing existing discoveries. Limited interest in the ongoing
licensing round will delay short to medium term new exploration.
After years of delays, the Ugandan state minister for minerals reported in June 2016 that the country
should issue six production licenses to Tullow Oil and Total before the end of the summer. This is
positive news after years of uncertainty.
This quarter, we have delayed our forecast for the start-up of the Hoima refinery to 2021 following the
failure of the Ugandan government and preferred bidder RT Global, to come to an agreement. The
change represents an additional year delay to our previous forecast and is three years beyond the
government's initial 2018 target launch (see 'refining section' of this report).