Uganda Defence and Security Report 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 21-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 33

BMI View: Ugandan demand for defence equipment will remain strong in the coming years, as the

country's armed forces need to modernise in order to fulfil a number of key tasks: protect borders and

resources; operate counter-terrorism missions; secure unstable areas to the north and in Rwenzori,

participate in regional peacekeeping, and strengthen Kampala's influence abroad. Facilitated by robust

forecast real GDP growth, Ugandan defence expenditure will see steady annual increases throughout the

next decade, although the overall military budget size will remain small on a global comparison. This latter

factor - combined with large operational expenses - will limit the funding available for new procurement

over the next few years. Meanwhile, due to the local defence sector's lack of technologically advanced

capabilities, Ugandan defence exports will remain negligible throughout our forecast period to 2025, and

virtually all Ugandan defence procurements will be sourced from abroad.

Latest Updates

? We expect steady annual growth in Ugandan defence expenditure over 2016 and 2017, at 9.8% and

13.0% respectively. In USD terms, growth will be much lower, as our Country Risk (CR) team forecast

further depreciation of the shilling against the dollar.

? On February 18, Yoweri Museveni won a fifth term in Uganda's presidential elections. In the near term,

Museveni's re-election offers policy continuity. However, it also raises long-term political risk as the

potential for a difficult succession process towards the latter part of our forecast period to 2025 has

heightened - particularly if Museveni runs for another term, despite having reached the upper age limit

for presidency.

Uganda Defence and Security Report 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 5
Table: Headline Defence Expenditure Forecasts (Uganda 2016-2020) 5
Industry Forecast 9
Defence Expenditure 9
Table: Defence Expenditure (Uganda 2014-2019) 10
Table: Defence Expenditure (Uganda 2020-2025) 10
Defence Trade 12
Industry Risk Reward Indices 14
Defence Industry Risk Reward Index 14
Table: Middle East And Africa - Defence Industry Risk Reward Index 14
Rewards 14
Risks 15
Market Overview 17
Armed Forces Overview 17
Armed Forces 17
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (Uganda 2008-2013) 17
Table: Uganda People's Defence Force - Overseas Deployments 19
Defence Market Overview 19
Domestic Defence Sector 19
Domestic Defence Market 20
Security Overview 22
Domestic Threats 22
Regional Threats 25
Company Profile 28
Luwero Industries 28
Methodology 29
Industry Forecast Methodology 29
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 30
Sector-Specific Methodology 32
Table: Defence Risk/Reward Index Indicators 32
Weighting 33
Table: Weighting of Defence Risk Reward Index 33

List of Tables

Table: Headline Defence Expenditure Forecasts (Uganda 2016-2020)
Table: Defence Expenditure (Uganda 2014-2019)
Table: Defence Expenditure (Uganda 2020-2025)
Table: Middle East And Africa - Defence Industry Risk Reward Index
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (Uganda 2008-2013)
Table: Uganda People's Defence Force - Overseas Deployments
Table: Defence Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting of Defence Risk Reward Index
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