Turkmenistan Power Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 21-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 58

BMI View: Gas-fired power will be Turkmenistan's only source of power generation over the next decade

as robust gas production, substantial gas reserves and limited gas export outlets will do little to incentivise

power mix diversification. The government will aim to boost gas-fired power to boost electricity exports, but

we expect security threats to interconnections to limit the viability to such plans. With contracting sources

of revenue, the government will be pressured to embark on a more austere energy agenda, which could put

ambitious power sector expansion plans on halt.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

? Few gas export commitments beyond the Chinese market mean Turkmenistan has few outlets for their

gas production besides domestic power consumption. Our Oil & Gas team holds a negative outlook for

the construction of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline, underpinning this view. Amid

contracting gas demand, Turkmenistan aims to boost gas-fired generation to boost electricity exports. The

main gas export destinations will be Afghanistan and Pakistan, but we are cautious over the strategy due

to elevated security threats to the planned interconnection infrastructure.

? Gas exports will fall further in 2016 following Gazprom's decision to halt imports completely, after

taking about 10bn cubic metres (bcm) annually from Turkmenistan over the previous five years. Given

that gas demand from Iran also will contract as the South Pars phases 15, 16, 17 and 18 will have added

about 25bcm of gas production capacity over 2016, Turkmenistan has another tough year ahead in a low

gas price environment. As the country relies on gas for 92% of its exports, we expect the country to

embark on a more austere energy agenda. This will likely entail reducing the availability of free

electricity, which will mean power consumption in the country will slow down. This could in a worst

case scenario see Turkmenistan having gas power generating facility new builds without limited domestic

demand and few viable export routes.

Turkmenistan Power Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Turkmenistan Snapshot 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Turkmenistan 2015-2019) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Turkmenistan 2020-2025) 11
Turkmenistan Industry Forecast 12
Gas Generation And Capacity Forecast 17
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 21
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2014-2019) 21
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2020-2025) 22
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2014-2019) 22
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2020-2025) 23
Electricity Consumption 23
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2014-2019) 24
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2020-2025) 25
Transmission & Distribution 25
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2014-2019) 27
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2020-2025) 27
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 28
CEE Power Risk/Reward Index 28
Industry Risk Reward Index 35
Rewards 35
Risks 36
Market Overview 37
Key Policies And Market Structure 37
Regulation And Competition 37
Sustainable Energy Policies 38
Pricing 38
Turkmenistan - Key Projects Database 40
Competitive Landscape 42
Turkmenenergo 42
Sumimoto Corporation 42
General Electric 43
Calik Enerji 43
Regional Overview 44
CEE Power Regional Overview 44
Glossary 52
Table: Glossary Of Terms 52
Methodology 53
Methodology And Sources 53
Industry Forecast Methodology 53
Sources 56
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 56
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 57
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 58

List of Tables

Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2015-2021)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Turkmenistan 2015-2019)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Turkmenistan 2020-2025)
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2020-2025)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2014-2019)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2020-2025)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2020-2025)
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2014-2019)
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2020-2025)
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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