The global pet care market is foretold to improve in the forthcoming years as matched to the preceding years and will showcase better sales in various market segments. It is estimated that the global pet care market will grow at a CAGR o…
BMI View: Gas-fired power will be Turkmenistan's only source of power generation over the next decade
as robust gas production, substantial gas reserves and limited gas export outlets will do little to incentivise
power mix diversification. The government will aim to boost gas-fired power to boost electricity exports, but
we expect security threats to interconnections to limit the viability to such plans. With contracting sources
of revenue, the government will be pressured to embark on a more austere energy agenda, which could put
ambitious power sector expansion plans on halt.
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
? Few gas export commitments beyond the Chinese market mean Turkmenistan has few outlets for their
gas production besides domestic power consumption. Our Oil & Gas team holds a negative outlook for
the construction of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline, underpinning this view. Amid
contracting gas demand, Turkmenistan aims to boost gas-fired generation to boost electricity exports. The
main gas export destinations will be Afghanistan and Pakistan, but we are cautious over the strategy due
to elevated security threats to the planned interconnection infrastructure.
? Gas exports will fall further in 2016 following Gazprom's decision to halt imports completely, after
taking about 10bn cubic metres (bcm) annually from Turkmenistan over the previous five years. Given
that gas demand from Iran also will contract as the South Pars phases 15, 16, 17 and 18 will have added
about 25bcm of gas production capacity over 2016, Turkmenistan has another tough year ahead in a low
gas price environment. As the country relies on gas for 92% of its exports, we expect the country to
embark on a more austere energy agenda. This will likely entail reducing the availability of free
electricity, which will mean power consumption in the country will slow down. This could in a worst
case scenario see Turkmenistan having gas power generating facility new builds without limited domestic
demand and few viable export routes.