Turkey Petrochemicals Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 14-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 78

BMI View: Turkey's coup attempt has shaken the petrochemicals industry with arrests of senior managers

of the local producer Petkim, but its Azerbaijani majority owner SOCAR is likely to continue investments.

The pre-coup outlook had been brightening and Turkey remains a significant importer, although

depreciation will support local production.

Petkim's expanded ethylene plant, which has seen capacity increase from 520,000 tonnes per annum (tpa)

to 600,000tpa, supported petrochemicals output growth in H116. The concurrent increase in purified

terephthalic acid (PTA) capacity from 70,000tpa to 105,000tpa also helped lift chemicals output and

provided cheaper feedstock for polymers production. Petkim reported 6.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) production

volume growth in H116, taking total petrochemicals output to 1.64mn tonnes. This came on the back of its

external product sales growth of 14.4% to 935,700 tonnes. Capacity usage at its 3.6mn tpa complex was up

percentage points compared to H115 to 94%.

The main risks are further challenges to President Erdogan's authority, both from the military and terrorism,

as well as souring relations with the EU. At present, Erdogan is using the attempted coup to consolidate his

authority, which may well improve political certainty so long as he continues to command popular support.

Trade with the EU is crucial and while it appears the political situation has put the issue of EU membership

off the cards, both sides continue to see a net positive in maintaining trade and investment relations.

However, political considerations - particularly in the event of a break with NATO - would significantly

undermine relations, potentially leading to European firm- slowing investment in plants with a

corresponding crimping of petrochemicals demand.

Turkey Petrochemicals Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 8
Political 9
Economic 11
Operational Risk 12
Industry Forecast 14
Table: Turkey - Petrochemicals Capacity Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2020 ('000tpa) 20
Macroeconomic Forecasts 21
Economic Analysis 21
Industry Risk/Reward Index 27
Europe Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index 27
Table: European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index (scores out of 100) 33
Turkey Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index 34
Market Overview 36
Industry Trends And Developments 39
Company Profile 44
Petkim 44
Table: Petkim's Financial Results (TRYmn), 2011-2015 46
Turkish Petroleum Refineries Corporation 47
Table: Tüpras' Financial Results, 2011-2015 48
Regional Overview 50
Europe Overview 50
Global Industry Overview 61
Demographic Forecast 68
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Turkey 1990-2025) 69
Table: Key Population Ratios (Turkey 1990-2025) 69
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Turkey 1990-2025) 70
Table: Population By Age Group (Turkey 1990-2025) 70
Table: Population By Age Group % (Turkey 1990-2025) 71
Glossary 73
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms 73
Methodology 74
Industry Forecast Methodology 74
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 76
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators 77
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 78

List of Tables

Table: Turkey - Petrochemicals Capacity Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2020 ('000tpa)
Table: European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index (scores out of 100)
Table: Petkim's Financial Results (TRYmn), 2011-2015
Table: Tüpras' Financial Results, 2011-2015
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Turkey 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Turkey 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Turkey 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Turkey 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Turkey 1990-2025)
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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