Turkey Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 07-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 76

BMI View: Turkey will continue to increase its consumption of crude oil, natural gas and refined fuels

throughout our medium-term forecast period to 2020, remaining a net importer of all three. Positive

exploration results in the Thrace Basin present upside risk to our gas production forecast.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Turkey's oil and gas sector are:

? We have upgraded our refined fuels consumption forecast for Turkey on the back of a significant

expansion in airport capacity boosting jet fuel demand and strong construction growth driving up diesel

demand. We expect Turkey to consume 1.04mn barrels per day (b/d) of refined fuels by 2025, a 174,000

b/d increase from our original forecast of 870,000 b/d. The bulk of this increase has come from the

inclusion of the Istanbul New Airport into our forecast, which in its first phase will have a capacity of

90mn people annually and reaching up to 200mn people per year in the second phase. Upon completion

the airport will be the largest in Europe and will considerably boost demand of jet fuel as Turkey looks to

grow its role as a global aviation hub, competing with the likes of the UAE for east-west airline traffic.

• Statoil has gained access to the deeper formations of Valeura's Banarli licences, allowing the Norwegian

company to target the potential below 2,500m.

Turkey Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Turkey 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 8
Oil & Gas SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Upstream Projects 14
Table: Turkey - Key Upstream Projects 14
Upstream Production - Oil 15
Latest Updates 15
Structural Trends 15
Table: Oil Production (Turkey 2014-2019) 17
Table: Oil Production (Turkey 2020-2025) 17
Upstream Production - Gas 18
Latest Updates 18
Structural Trends 19
Table: Gas Production (Turkey 2014-2019) 19
Table: Gas Production (Turkey 2020-2025) 20
Refining 21
Latest Updates 21
Structural Trends 21
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Turkey 2014-2019) 23
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Turkey 2020-2025) 23
Refined Fuels Consumption 24
Latest Updates 24
Structural Trends 24
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Turkey 2014-2019) 26
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Turkey 2020-2025) 26
Gas Consumption 27
Latest Updates 27
Structural Trends 27
Table: Gas Consumption (Turkey 2014-2019) 28
Table: Gas Consumption (Turkey 2020-2025) 29
Trade - Oil 30
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts 30
Latest Updates 30
Structural Trends 30
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Turkey 2014-2020) 31
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Turkey 2020-2025) 32
Fuels Trade Forecast 32
Latest Updates 32
Structural Trends 32
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Turkey 2014-2019) 33
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Turkey 2020-2025) 34
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 35
Latest Updates 35
Structural Trends 35
Table: Gas Net Exports (Turkey 2014-2019) 38
Table: Gas Net Exports (Turkey 2020-2025) 38
Industry Risk Reward Index 39
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 39
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward 39
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Indices 40
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index 43
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market 43
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index 46
Turkey - Risk/Reward Index 47
Turkey Upstream Index 47
Turkey Downstream Index 47
Market Overview 49
Turkey Energy Market Overview 49
Regulatory Structure 49
Fiscal Regime 50
Table: Turkey - Upstream Tax Regime 50
Licensing Regime 50
Table: Turkey - Contracts and Licensing Regime 50
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 51
Oil Refineries 51
Table: Oil Refineries In Turkey 51
Service Stations 52
Oil Terminals/Ports 52
Oil Pipelines 52
LNG Terminals 53
Table: LNG Terminals In Turkey 53
Gas Pipelines 53
Gas Storage 55
Competitive Landscape 56
Competitive Landscape Summary 56
Table: Key Players In Turkey's Oil & Gas Sector 57
Table: Key Upstream Players 57
Company Profile 58
Türkiye Petrolleri Anonim Ortakligi (TPAO) 58
Table: Table: Major Upstream Assets In Turkey 59
Turkish Petroleum Refineries Corporation (Tüpras) 60
Table: Key Assets 61
Table: Key Financial Data, USDmn 61
Regional Overview 62
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview 62
Oil Production: Oil Powerhouses Falter On Weak Prices 62
Oil Consumption: Short-Term Weakness As Russia Struggles 63
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Key To Competing 64
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Demand-Dependent 65
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions 66
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies 67
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Production & Consumption, Refining Capacity & Trade 68
Glossary 69
Table: Glossary Of Terms 69
Methodology 71
Industry Forecast Methodology 71
Source 73
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 73
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 75
Table: Weighting 76

List of Tables

Table: Headline Forecasts (Turkey 2014-2020)
Table: Turkey - Key Upstream Projects
Table: Oil Production (Turkey 2014-2019)
Table: Oil Production (Turkey 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Production (Turkey 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Production (Turkey 2020-2025)
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Turkey 2014-2019)
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Turkey 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Turkey 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Turkey 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Consumption (Turkey 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Consumption (Turkey 2020-2025)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Turkey 2014-2020)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Turkey 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Turkey 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Turkey 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Turkey 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Turkey 2020-2025)
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Indices
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Turkey - Upstream Tax Regime
Table: Turkey - Contracts and Licensing Regime
Table: Oil Refineries In Turkey
Table: LNG Terminals In Turkey
Table: Key Players In Turkey's Oil & Gas Sector
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Table: Major Upstream Assets In Turkey
Table: Key Assets
Table: Key Financial Data, USDmn
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Production & Consumption, Refining Capacity & Trade
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting
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