Turkey Consumer Electronics Report Q1 2013

Publisher Name :
Date: 12-Dec-2012
No. of pages: 61

BMI downwardly revised its consumer electronics market forecast for 2013, after the market was affected

by tighter consumer credit in 2012. Consumer loan growth continued to show signs of moderation in

H212, as the economy rebalanced from debt-fuelled consumption to a more balanced model with a

greater role for exports.

However, consumer electronics sales remain strong in key categories, such as smartphones. The FATH

programme to provide tablets for school students is expected to have a major impact on the market.

Despite an expected short-term moderation therefore, Turkey's consumer electronics market is well

positioned to outperform most other emerging Europe markets. Demand is expected to increase at 8.4

%CAGR through to 2017, driven by the growing popularity of digital lifestyle devices such as flat-panel

TV sets, smartphones, notebook computers and digital cameras, as well as rising incomes and lower

prices.

Computer hardware sales: US$5.7bn in 2012 to US$6.3bn in 2013, +10% in US dollar terms. Forecast

in US dollar terms downwardly revised due to macroeconomic factors, but upgrades to Windows 8 based

machines could provide a boost.

AV sales: US$1.9bn in 2012 to US$2.1bn in 2013, +7% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms

unchanged, with digital broadcasting penetration expected to reach 70% in 2012.

Handset sales: US$1.8bn in 2012 to US$2.1bn in 2013, +14% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar

terms unchanged, with smartphones accounting for about 60% of Turkish handset revenues in 2013.

Risks/Rewards Rating: Turkey's score was 50 out of 100. BMI expects consumer IT spending to hold

up relatively well, although continued price erosion in the PC and handset market will place pressure on

margins. Turkey remains in fourth place (out of eight) in our latest RRR table and the country is in a

favourable position to continue to be a regional market outperformer.

Key Trends & Developments

Mobile subscriber penetration reached 90% in 2012. Sales will be driven increasingly by the

replacement market. With smartphone prices declining across the year, and a larger portfolio of

devices and mobile internet services available, smartphones reached 61% of handset sales by

Turkish mobile operator Turkcell in Q112.

Turkey's evolution towards digital TV services will help drive AV sales, with video devices

such as TV sets, digital cameras and VCR players accounting for more than 80% of demand. A

higher proportion of sales were accounted for by digital models. Total stock of LCD and plasma

TV sets among Turkey's TV households is more than 2.5mn units.

The Fatih technology for schools programme will provide a significant boost to PC sales over

the next few years. Its goal is to provide 15mn students with tablet PCs, as well as other devices

such as digital cameras. The project is expected to cost up to US$7.5mn and should reach

570,000 classrooms over the next five years. The focus of the project is networked computers,

printers and cameras for every classroom, as well as educational content.

Turkey Consumer Electronics Report Q1 2013

Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 5
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 7
Turkey Consumer Electronics Market SWOT ....................................................................................................................................................... 7
Turkey Political SWOT ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Turkey Economic SWOT ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Turkey Business Environment SWOT .................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Risk/Reward Ratings ..................................................................................................................................... 10
Table: CEE Consumer Electronics Risk/Reward Ratings, Q113.......................................................................................................................... 14
Consumer Electronics Market ...................................................................................................................... 15
Computers ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 16
Table: PC Sales, 2010-2017 ............................................................................................................................................................................... 16
AV ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 19
Table: AV Sales, 2010-2017................................................................................................................................................................................ 19
Mobile Handsets ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 22
Table: Mobile Communications, 2010-2017 ....................................................................................................................................................... 22
Consumer Electronics Industry .................................................................................................................... 27
Table: Turkey Electronics Industry - Key Metrics (US$) ................................................................................................................................... 27
Table: Exports (US$mn), 2008-2009 .................................................................................................................................................................. 28
Industry Forecast Scenario ........................................................................................................................... 33
Consumer Electronics Market ............................................................................................................................................................................ 33
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2010-2017 ........................................................................................................................................... 33
Industry Developments................................................................................................................................. 36
Macroeconomic Forecast .............................................................................................................................. 38
Table: Turkey - Economic Activity ..................................................................................................................................................................... 40
Competitive Landscape ................................................................................................................................ 41
Computers ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 41
Handsets .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 44
AV ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 46
Domestic Company Monitor......................................................................................................................... 48
Vestel Electronics ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 48
Arçelik (formerly Grundig) ................................................................................................................................................................................. 51
Indeks Bilgisayar Sistemleri Muhendislik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS .......................................................................................................................... 53
Demographic Outlook ................................................................................................................................... 55
Table: Turkey's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) ............................................................................................................................. 56
Table: Turkey's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of population) ........................................................................................................... 57
Table: Turkey's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 ............................................................................................................................................ 58
Table: Turkey's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020.................................................................................................................................. 58
BMI Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 59
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .............................................................................................................................................................. 59
Electronics Industry ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 59
Sources .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 60Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 5
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 7
Turkey IT Sector SWOT ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 7
Turkey Telecoms Industry SWOT .......................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Turkey Political SWOT ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Turkey Economic SWOT ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 10
Turkey Business Environment SWOT .................................................................................................................................................................. 10
Europe IT Risk/Reward Ratings .................................................................................................................... 11
Table: Europe Risk/Reward Ratings, Q113 ........................................................................................................................................................ 13
Europe IT Regional Overview ....................................................................................................................... 14
IT Penetration ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 14
Sectors And Verticals .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 18
Industry Forecast .......................................................................................................................................... 23
Table: Turkey IT Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts , 2010-2017 ................................................................................................................... 26
Industry Forecast Internet ............................................................................................................................. 27
Internet .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 27
Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017 ................................................................................................. 27
Competitive Landscape ................................................................................................................................ 29
Hardware ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 29
Software And Services.............................................................................................................................................................................................. 31
Internet Competitive Landscape............................................................................................................................................................................... 35
Macroeconomic Forecast .............................................................................................................................. 36
Table: Turkey - Economic Activity, 2011-2016 ................................................................................................................................................... 38
Company Profiles .......................................................................................................................................... 39
IBM ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 39
Meteksan IT Group ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 44
Koç Sistem .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 46
Oracle Corp ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 47
Country Snapshot ......................................................................................................................................... 51
Table: Turkey's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) ............................................................................................................................. 52
Table: Turkey's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of population) ........................................................................................................... 53
Table: Turkey's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 ............................................................................................................................................ 54
Table: Turkey's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020.................................................................................................................................. 54
BMI Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 55
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ......................................................................................................................................................... 55
IT Industry .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 55
IT Ratings - Methodology ................................................................................................................................................................................... 56
Table: IT Business Environment Indicators ........................................................................................................................................................ 57
Weighting ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 58
Table: Weighting Of Components ....................................................................................................................................................................... 58
Sources ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 58Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 5
SWOT Analysis ............................................................................................................................................... 7
Turkey Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT .................................................................................................................................... 7
Turkey Political SWOT ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Turkey Economic SWOT ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Turkey Political SWOT ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Risk/Reward Ratings ................................................................................ 10
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs), Q113.......................................................... 10
Rewards .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 11
Risks .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 11
Turkey - Market Summary ............................................................................................................................ 13
Regulatory Regime ....................................................................................................................................... 14
Intellectual Property Regime .............................................................................................................................................................................. 15
Market Access Issues .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 16
Pricing Regime ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 17
Table: Turkish Pharmaceutical Pricing Decrees ................................................................................................................................................ 18
Drug Price Inflation ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 19
Reimbursement Regime ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 20
Table: Pharmacist discount related to annual sales revenue (VAT excluded) ...................................................................................................... 21
Industry Developments ................................................................................................................................ 22
Epidemiology ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 22
Non-Communicable Diseases ............................................................................................................................................................................. 22
Healthcare Sector ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 23
Healthcare Insurance .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 24
Healthcare Infrastructure ................................................................................................................................................................................... 25
Healthcare Financing ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 26
Research & Development .................................................................................................................................................................................... 26
Clinical Trials Industry ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 27
Medical Devices Industry .................................................................................................................................................................................... 28
Industry Forecast Scenario .......................................................................................................................... 31
Overall Market Forecast ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 31
Table: Turkey Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts ................................................................................................................. 33
Healthcare Market Forecast ............................................................................................................................................................................... 34
Table: Turkey Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts .................................................................................................. 35
Table: Turkey Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts ............................................................................. 36
Table: Turkey Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts ...................................................................................... 36
Key Growth Factors - Macroeconomic .............................................................................................................................................................. 37
Table: Turkey - Economic Activity ...................................................................................................................................................................... 41
Prescription Drug Market Forecast .................................................................................................................................................................... 42
Table: Turkey Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts ......................................................................................... 43
Patented Drug Market Forecast ......................................................................................................................................................................... 44
Generic Drug Market Forecast ........................................................................................................................................................................... 45
Table: Turkey Generics Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts............................................................................................... 46
OTC Medicine Market Forecast ......................................................................................................................................................................... 47
Table: Turkey Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts .............................................................. 48
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast .......................................................................................................................................................................... 49
Table: Turkey Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (US$mn) ................................................................................................................... 49
Table: Turkey Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (TRYmn) ................................................................................................................... 50
Medical Device Market Forecast ........................................................................................................................................................................ 51
Table: Turkey Medical Device Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts ............................................................................................. 52
Other Healthcare Data ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 53
Key Risks To BMI's Forecasts ............................................................................................................................................................................ 53
Competitive Landscape ............................................................................................................................... 54
Pharmaceutical Sector ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 54
Domestic Industry ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 55
Foreign Industry ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 55
Company Activity ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 56
Wholesale ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 57
Retail ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 58
Company Profiles ......................................................................................................................................... 60
Local Companies ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 60
Abdi ?brahim ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 60
Eczaciba?i Pharmaceuticals ............................................................................................................................................................................... 63
Sanovel Pharmaceuticals .................................................................................................................................................................................... 66
Deva (EastPharma) ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 68
Mustafa Nevzat Ilac Sanayi (MN) Pharmaceuticals ............................................................................................................................................ 71
Multinational Companies ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 74
Novartis .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 74
Pfizer................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 75
Sanofi .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 77
GlaxoSmithKline ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 79
Roche .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 81
AstraZeneca ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 83
Bayer................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 84
Merck & Co ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 86
Demographic Outlook .................................................................................................................................. 88
TURKEY - Population By Age Group ................................................................................................................................................................. 89
TURKEY - Population By Age Group ................................................................................................................................................................. 90
TURKEY - Key Population Ratios....................................................................................................................................................................... 91
TURKEY - Rural and Urban Population ............................................................................................................................................................. 91
Glossary ........................................................................................................................................................ 92
BMI Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 94
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts ............................................................................................................................... 94
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology ..................................................................................................................................................................... 95
Ratings Overview ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 95
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators ................................................................................................................................... 96
Weighting ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 97
Table: Weighting Of Components ......
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