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BMI downwardly revised its consumer electronics market forecast for 2013, after the market was affected
by tighter consumer credit in 2012. Consumer loan growth continued to show signs of moderation in
H212, as the economy rebalanced from debt-fuelled consumption to a more balanced model with a
greater role for exports.
However, consumer electronics sales remain strong in key categories, such as smartphones. The FATH
programme to provide tablets for school students is expected to have a major impact on the market.
Despite an expected short-term moderation therefore, Turkey's consumer electronics market is well
positioned to outperform most other emerging Europe markets. Demand is expected to increase at 8.4
%CAGR through to 2017, driven by the growing popularity of digital lifestyle devices such as flat-panel
TV sets, smartphones, notebook computers and digital cameras, as well as rising incomes and lower
Computer hardware sales: US$5.7bn in 2012 to US$6.3bn in 2013, +10% in US dollar terms. Forecast
in US dollar terms downwardly revised due to macroeconomic factors, but upgrades to Windows 8 based
machines could provide a boost.
AV sales: US$1.9bn in 2012 to US$2.1bn in 2013, +7% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms
unchanged, with digital broadcasting penetration expected to reach 70% in 2012.
Handset sales: US$1.8bn in 2012 to US$2.1bn in 2013, +14% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar
terms unchanged, with smartphones accounting for about 60% of Turkish handset revenues in 2013.
Risks/Rewards Rating: Turkey's score was 50 out of 100. BMI expects consumer IT spending to hold
up relatively well, although continued price erosion in the PC and handset market will place pressure on
margins. Turkey remains in fourth place (out of eight) in our latest RRR table and the country is in a
favourable position to continue to be a regional market outperformer.
Key Trends & Developments
Mobile subscriber penetration reached 90% in 2012. Sales will be driven increasingly by the
replacement market. With smartphone prices declining across the year, and a larger portfolio of
devices and mobile internet services available, smartphones reached 61% of handset sales by
Turkish mobile operator Turkcell in Q112.
Turkey's evolution towards digital TV services will help drive AV sales, with video devices
such as TV sets, digital cameras and VCR players accounting for more than 80% of demand. A
higher proportion of sales were accounted for by digital models. Total stock of LCD and plasma
TV sets among Turkey's TV households is more than 2.5mn units.
The Fatih technology for schools programme will provide a significant boost to PC sales over
the next few years. Its goal is to provide 15mn students with tablet PCs, as well as other devices
such as digital cameras. The project is expected to cost up to US$7.5mn and should reach
570,000 classrooms over the next five years. The focus of the project is networked computers,
printers and cameras for every classroom, as well as educational content.