The Western Europe telecoms market: trends and forecasts (16 countries) 2016–2021

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Date: 15-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 52
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"Operators can take advantage of growing high-speed broadband demand by rolling out NGA broadband infrastructure that justifies a price increase."

Telecoms revenue in Western Europe will continue to decline in 2016–2021, but at a substantially lower rate than in the previous 5 years. Competition from over-the-top (OTT) players will erode voice revenue, but network upgrades and growing take-up of smartphones, 4G and NGA fixed broadband will drive revenue growth in data segments in both fixed and mobile markets.

This report and associated data annex provide:


  • a 5-year forecast of more than 345 mobile and fixed KPIs for Western Europe, as a whole and for 16 key countries

  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries

  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison

  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.


Geographical coverage

Regions modelled


  • Western Europe (WE)


Countries modelled individually


  • Austria

  • Belgium

  • Denmark

  • Finland

  • France

  • Germany

  • Greece

  • Ireland

  • Italy

  • Netherlands

  • Norway

  • Portugal

  • Spain

  • Sweden

  • Switzerland

  • UK


Key performance indicators

Connections

Mobile


  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M

  • Prepaid, contract

  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G

  • Smartphone, non-smartphone


Fixed


  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up

  • Narrowband voice, VoBB

  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other


Fixed and mobile voice traffic


  • Outgoing minutes, minutes of use (MoU)


Revenue

Mobile


  • Service, retail

  • Prepaid, contract

  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M

  • Handset voice, messaging, data


Fixed


  • Service, retail

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS

  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other


Mobile ARPU


  • SIMs, handset

  • Prepaid, contract

  • Handset voice, data

The Western Europe telecoms market: trends and forecasts (16 countries) 2016–2021

Table of Contents

8.Executive summary
9.Total telecoms revenue growth will decline much less steeply over the next
5 years, after a period of rapid decline
10. Mobile and fixed data spend will mitigate the drop in voice revenue, but will  not entirely compensate for it
11. Different trends in retail revenue growth are beginning to emerge in  European countries, after years of near - universal decline
12. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
13. Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
14. Regional forecasts and cross - country comparison
15. Geographical coverage: 16 Western European countries comprised 21% of  worldwide telecoms revenue in 2015
16. Market context: France, Germany and the UK account for more than half of  the regional revenue total
17. Revenue and ARPU: The decline in mobile and fixed broadband ARPU  slowed in 2015, but will continue throughout the forecast period
18. Mobile penetration: WE markets are mature and the mobile user base will  decline in most of them
19. Mobile connections: 4G will become the predominant technology in 2016
20. Smartphones and LTE: All WE countries, except Greece, will exceed 90%  smartphone share of handsets in 2021
21. Mobile broadband: Growth of the mid - screen (connected tablet) mobile  broadband user base will slow
22. Mobile ARPU: Some markets will begin to recover, but the overall average  will continue to trend down
23. Mobile voice: OTT services will substitute for traditional voice usage
24. Data and revenue by generation: Mobile data traffic will grow nearly six - fold  between 2015 and 2021
25. Fixed services: VDSL will take over as the leading fixed broadband access  technology in 2019
26. Fixed broadband: Italy will be the fastest growing market, as substantial  network improvements are planned
27. Key drivers at a glance for each Western Europe market
28. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
29. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
30. Individual country forecasts
31. France: Total service revenue will continue to decline slightly, due to  continuing high revenue losses on voice services
32. France  – mobile: Increasing 4G coverage and high smartphone penetration  will drive mobile handset data ARPU
33. France  – fixed: Operators will focus on growing NGA penetration and bundle  take - up to protect broadband ARPU from decline
34. Germany: A decline in fixed voice will be the main driver behind decreasing  overall service revenue
35. Germany  – mobile: Revenue will return to growth late in the forecast period,  as fixed – mobile convergence discounts dissipate
36.Germany  – fixed: VDSL will be the main driver of growth, due to Telekom’s  vectoring upgrades
37. Italy: Total service revenue will decline to EUR24.7 billion and fixed services  will represent 51% of retail revenue in 2021
38. Italy  – mobile: Handset ARPU decline will slow, driven by value - added  services and increasing data usage
39. Italy  – fixed: The shift from traditional DSL network to NGA will drive  broadband service take - up
40. Spain: Growth in fixed broadband and mobile data revenue will prevent  further significant declines in total service revenue
41. Spain  – mobile: Increasing smartphone take  - up will stabilise handset data  ARPU
42. Spain   –fixed: Fixed fibre roll - out and upselling of converged services will  boost NGA penetration and drive ASPU growth
43. UK: Despite the Brexit vote, the UK market will remain buoyant in many  areas
44. UK  – mobile: Competition remains strong, and we expect convergence to  put further pressure on mobile ARPU
45. UK  – fixed: Broadband take - up is high, so the focus is on increasing access  speed and take - up of value - added services
46. About the authors and Analysys Mason
47. About the authors [1]
48. About the authors [2]
49. Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned
50. Research from Analysys Mason
51. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures

Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by service type and total servicerevenue (retail and wholesale), Western Europe, 2011–2021
Figure 2: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue growth by service type,WesternEurope, 2015–2021
Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, Western Europe,2015–2021
Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Western Europe
Figure 5: Mobile connections by technology generation and NGA share of fixedbroadband connections by country, Western Europe, 2021
Figure 6: Metrics for the 16 countries modelled individually in Western Europe,2015
Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixedbroadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, Western Europe, 2011–2021
Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and growth rates, WesternEurope, 2015–2021
Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, Western Europe, 2015–2021
Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), WesternEurope, 2011–2021
Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and3G, 4G and 5G’s share of connections, Western Europe, 2011–2021
Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE’s share of totalconnections (excluding M2M), Western Europe, 2015 and 2021
Figure 13: Mobile broadband connections by screen size and technology,Western Europe, 2011–20215
Figure 14: Mobile ARPU by country, Western Europe, 2011–2021
Figure 15: Average mobile minutes of use per month, Western Europe, 2011–2021
Figure 16: Mobile service revenue and ARPU by technology, Western Europe,2011–2021
Figure 17: Data traffic per month and revenue per megabyte, Western Europe,2011–2021
Figure 18: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, pay-TV andmobile broadband connections, Western Europe, 2011–2021
Figure 19: Residential fixed broadband penetration of households by country,Western Europe, 2011–2021
Figure 20: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2015) and future trajectory(2016–2021), by country, Western Europe
Figure 21: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key driverstable (current and future) and impact of high scores
Figure 22: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue(retail and wholesale), France, 2011–2021
Figure 23: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue andgrowth rates, France, 2015–2021
Figure 24: Connections by type, and growth rates, France, 2015–2021
Figure 25: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, France, 2011–2021
Figure 26: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, France, 2011
Figure 27: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, France
Figure 28: Fixed penetration rates by service type, France, 2011–2021
Figure 29: Fixed ASPU by service type, France, 2011–2021
Figure 30: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, France
Figure 31: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue(retail and wholesale), Germany, 2011–2021
Figure 32: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue andgrowth rates, Germany, 2015–2021
Figure 33: Connections by type, and growth rates, Germany, 2015–2021
Figure 34: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Germany, 2011–2021
Figure 35: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Germany, 2011–2021
Figure 36: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Germany
Figure 37: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Germany, 2011–2021
Figure 38: Fixed ASPU by service type, Germany, 2011–2021
Figure 39: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Germany
Figure 40: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue(retail and wholesale), Italy, 2011–2021
Figure 41: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue andgrowth rates, Italy, 2015–2021
Figure 42: Connections by type, and growth rates, Italy, 2015–2021
Figure 43: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Italy, 2011–20216
Figure 44: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Italy, 2011–2021
Figure 45: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Italy
Figure 46: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Italy, 2011–2021
Figure 47: Fixed ASPU by service type, Italy, 2011–2021
Figure 48: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Italy
Figure 49: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue(retail and wholesale), Spain, 2011–2021
Figure 50: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue andgrowth rates, Spain, 2015–2021
Figure 51: Connections by type, and growth rates, Spain, 2015–2021
Figure 52: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Spain, 2011–2021
Figure 53: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Spain, 2011–2021
Figure 54: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Spain
Figure 55: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Spain, 2011–2021
Figure 56: Fixed ASPU by service type, Spain, 2011–2021
Figure 57: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Spain
Figure 58: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue(retail and wholesale), UK, 2011–2021
Figure 59: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue andgrowth rates, UK, 2015–2021
Figure 60: Connections by type, and growth rates, UK, 2015–2021
Figure 61: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, UK, 2011–2021
Figure 62: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, UK, 2011–20217
Figure 63: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, UK
Figure 64: Fixed penetration rates by service type, UK, 2011–2021
Figure 65: Fixed ASPU by service type, UK, 2011–2021
Figure 66: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, UK

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