The Sub-Saharan Africa telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2018–2023

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Date: 30-Nov-2018
No. of pages: 44
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"There are strong revenue growth opportunities in some of the telecoms markets in Sub-Saharan Africa; more than 1.0 billion mobile connections and a total service revenue of over USD46 billion are expected in the region by 2023."

Telecoms operators in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are increasingly focused on developing and monetising data services as the growth of legacy services starts to slow down and consumers increasingly adopt digital services. This report presents Analysys Mason's core forecasts for the region, analyses the key trends and assesses their impact during the next 5 years.

This report and associated data annex provide:


  • a 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for SSA, as a whole and for 11 key countries

  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries

  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison

  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.


Coverage

Geographical coverage

Regions modelled


  • Sub-Saharan Africa


Countries modelled individually


  • Cameroon

  • Côte d’Ivoire

  • Ghana

  • Kenya

  • Nigeria

  • Rwanda

  • South Africa

  • Sudan

  • Tanzania

  • Uganda

  • Zambia


Key performance indicators

Connections

Mobile


  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT

  • Prepaid, contract

  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G

  • Smartphone, non-smartphone


Fixed


  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up

  • Narrowband voice, VoBB

  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other


Voice traffic

Fixed and mobile


  • Outgoing minutes, MoU


Revenue

Mobile


  • Service, retail

  • Prepaid, contract

  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT

  • Handset voice, messaging, data


Fixed


  • Service, retail

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, business services

  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other


ARPU

Mobile


  • SIMs, handset

  • Prepaid, contract

  • Handset voice, data

The Sub-Saharan Africa telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2018–2023

Table of contents:

8.Executive summary and recommendations
9.Telecoms revenue will grow to USD46.2 billion with a CAGR of 1.5% between 2018 and 2023, amidst affordability, regulatory and macroeconomic challenges
10.The positive growth in telecoms retail revenue will be largely proportional to the economic growth across SSA, except in Ghana, Nigeria and Sudan
11.Geographical coverage: we model 11 telecoms markets, which will account for 69.4% of SSA’s overall telecoms service revenue in 2023
12.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
13.Key recommendations for telecoms operators
14.Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
15.Market context: the 11 countries modelled provided 50.7% of the total population in SSA and 68.4% of its telecoms service revenue in 2017
16.Key mergers, acquisitions and market entries
17.Key drivers at a glance for each Sub-Saharan Africa market
18.Market overview: mobile and fixed data services will drive revenue growth but mobile voice will continue to be a key contributor to service revenue
19.Mobile: 3G will become the predominant technology in SSA, while 4G will account for 16.9% of mobile connections in 2023; 5G is expected to launch in 2020
20.Mobile: penetration will increase in most countries, driven by improved coverage and competition, but growth will slow down due to declining multi-SIM levels
21.Mobile: spending on non-voice services will help to slow down the ARPU decline in most countries in SSA; ARPU in Sudan will increase due to inflation
22.Mobile: SIM penetration growth rates will drop to single digits in most markets despite the sustained demand for mobile services
23.Fixed: wireless access will contribute the largest share of broadband revenue, but fibre will have the highest growth rate
24.Fixed: South Africa continues to lead in terms of fixed broadband penetration in the region thanks to its developed infrastructure and level of competition
25.Fixed: increased popularity of wireless services will cause fixed broadband revenue to fall, while the growth of NGA will help to stabilise ASPU over the next 5 years
26.Fixed: fixed broadband services offer strong growth opportunities from a small base but they will remain inaccessible to the majority of the region’s population
27.Business services: enterprise revenue is small, but is growing more rapidly in Sub-Saharan Africa than in other regions
28.IoT: cellular M2M revenue growth will be substantial, but connectivity revenue will remain small
29.Pay TV: the overwhelming majority of the pay-TV market will be split between satellite and pay-DTT platforms
30.Individual country forecasts
31.Ghana: non-voice services, including mobile money, will help to boost revenue despite the modest growth in the number of SIMs
32.Ghana: reluctance to acquire spectrum will limit adoption of LTE, and fixed broadband will benefit from fibre network deployments
33.Ghana: growth in the number of mobile connections will be modest, but a growing demand for data, financial services and fibre will boost revenue
34.Ghana: we have revised the market ARPU to reflect MTN’s new way of reporting active subscribers, resulting in a more optimistic growth outlook
35.Kenya: the mobile market has potential for growth, and cable’s popularity and fibre deployments will support the fixed market revenue growth
36.Kenya: the accelerated adoption of 4G will drive traffic growth; cable will lose its dominant position in the fixed broadband market to fibre
37.Kenya: there are solid revenue growth prospects for mobile money and data services; fixed broadband adoption will benefit from better access
38.Kenya: there is a more optimistic outlook for fibre services thanks to recent deployments and a stronger than expected take-up
39.Nigeria: difficult economic conditions will continue to affect the telecoms market in terms of investment and spend
40.Nigeria: increased 4G coverage and improved smartphone affordability will support the demand for data services
41.Nigeria: there is room for mobile revenue growth despite the crowded market; fibre will represent a third of fixed broadband connections by 2023
42.Nigeria: the forecast for the number of mobile connections has been adjusted to take into consideration MTN’s restatement of its subscribers
43.South Africa: service revenue will grow with a modest CAGR of 1.0% between 2018 and 2023, driven by handset data and fixed broadband
44.South Africa: there will be sustained growth in the mobile market thanks to a strengthening economy and the fixed market will benefit from investment
45.South Africa: improved rural network coverage will help the number of mobile connections to grow, and investment will boost broadband take-up
46.South Africa: the entry of 4G player Rain in 2017 has compelled us to reassess the prediction for the number of fixed and mobile 4G connections
47.Tanzania: service revenue will reach TZS3.0 trillion in 2023, and more than 40.9% of this will be from mobile handset data
48.Tanzania: the newly awarded 700MHz band for 4G usage will help to improve coverage and access to high-speed mobile data services
Tanzania: the mobile market offers growth opportunities despite competition, while the fixed market will benefit from investment
50.Tanzania: the fixed broadband market outlook is stronger, but the revenue for mobile voice interconnect is reduced due to a new MTR glide path
51.Uganda: mobile handset data and fixed broadband services will help to grow the service revenue to almost UGX3.5 trillion by 2023
52.Uganda: 4G services will be adopted slowly because of a lack of affordability, limited network coverage and low smartphone penetration
53.Uganda: there are opportunities for moderate mobile revenue growth, but fixed broadband holds more potential
54.Uganda: we have increased our forecast for the number of fixed broadband connections, and have reduced the postpaid share of mobile connections
55.Methodology
56.Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
57.Examples of forecast input drivers
58.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
59.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
60.About the author and Analysys Mason
61.About the author
62.Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned
63.Research from Analysys Mason
64.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures:

Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013–2023
Figure 2: Growth in both telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2017–2023
Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and next-generation access (NGA) share of fixed broadband connections by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2017 and 20231
Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Sub-Saharan Africa
Figure 5: Metrics for the 11 countries modelled individually in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2017
Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in Sub-Saharan Africa
Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2017) and future trajectory (2018–2023), by country, Sub-Saharan Africa
Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Sub-Saharan Africa (USD billion), 2013–2023
Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), 2013–2023
Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013–2023
Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), 2013–2023
Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), 2013–2023
Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, Sub-Saharan Africa (USD per month), 2013–2023
Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013–2023
Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, Sub-Saharan Africa (MB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 16a: Mobile penetration by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013–2023
Figure 16b: Mobile penetration by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013–2023
Figure 17a: Mobile ARPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013–2023
Figure 17b: Mobile ARPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013–2023
Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), 2013–2023
Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, Sub-Saharan Africa (USD billion), 2013–2023
Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013–2023
Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, Sub-Saharan Africa (GB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 22a: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013–2023
Figure 22a: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013–2023
Figure 23a: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013–2023
Figure 23a: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013–2023
Figure 24: Total market revenue from business services, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013–2023
Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2023
Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay TV, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2023
Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Ghana (GHS billion), 2013–2023
Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, Ghana (million), 2013–2023
Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Ghana, 2013–2023
Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Ghana (thousand), 2013–2023
Figure 31: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Ghana, 2013–2023
Figure 32: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Ghana (GHS per month), 2013–2023
Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, Ghana (MB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, Ghana (thousand), 2013–2023
Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Ghana, 2013–2023
Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Kenya (KES billion), 2013–2023
Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Kenya (million), 2013–2023
Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Kenya, 2013–2023
Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Kenya (thousand), 2013–2023
Figure 40: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Kenya, 2013–2023
Figure 41: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Kenya (KES thousand per month), 2013–2023
Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Kenya (MB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Kenya (thousand), 2013–2023
Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Kenya, 2013–2023
Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Nigeria (NGN trillion), 2013–2023
Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Nigeria (million), 2013–2023
Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Nigeria, 2013–2023
Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Nigeria (thousand), 2013–2023
Figure 49: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Nigeria, 2013–2023
Figure 50: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Nigeria (NGN thousand per month), 2013–2023
Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Nigeria (MB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Nigeria (million), 2013–2023
Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Nigeria, 2013–2023
Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, South Africa (ZAR billion), 2013–2023
Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, South Africa (million), 2013–2023
Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, South Africa, 2013–2023
Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, South Africa (million), 2013–2023
Figure 58: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, South Africa, 2013–2023
Figure 59: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, South Africa (ZAR per month), 2013–2023
Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, South Africa (MB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, South Africa (million), 2013–2023
Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, South Africa, 2013–2023
Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Tanzania (TZS trillion), 2013–2023
Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, Tanzania (million), 2013–2023
Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Tanzania, 2013–2023
Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, Tanzania (thousand), 2013–2023
Figure 67: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Tanzania, 2013–2023
Figure 68: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Tanzania (TZS thousand per month), 2013–2023
Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, Tanzania (MB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, Tanzania (thousand), 2013–2023
Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Tanzania, 2013–2023
Figure 72: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Uganda (UGX trillion), 2013–2023
Figure 73: Mobile connections by type, Uganda (million), 2013–2023
Figure 74: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Uganda, 2013–2023
Figure 75: Fixed connections by type, Uganda (thousand), 2013–2023
Figure 76: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Uganda, 2013–2023
Figure 77: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Uganda (UGX thousand per month), 2013–2023
Figure 78: Mobile data traffic per connection, Uganda (MB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 79: Broadband connections by technology, Uganda (thousand), 2013–2023
Figure 80: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Uganda, 2013–2023
Figure 81a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
Figure 81b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores

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