The Sub-Saharan Africa telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2017–2022

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Date: 09-Nov-2017
No. of pages: 35
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"Sub-Saharan Africa's telecoms market offers strong revenue growth opportunities in most markets, with more than 1.0 billion mobile connections and over USD45 billion in total service revenue forecasted by 2022."

This report analyses the most important trends that are affecting fixed and mobile telecoms services in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and examines the impact that these trends will have during the next 5 years. The increased availability of low-cost smartphones and improved coverage of 3G and 4G networks are helping to drive the demand for data connectivity and the take-up of digital services. Investment in fixed–wireless and fibre technologies will also help to drive the adoption of fixed broadband in the region.

This Report And Associated Data Annex Provide:


  • a 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for SSA, as a whole and for 11 key countries

  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries

  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison

  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.


Coverage

Geographical coverage

Regions modelled


  • Sub-Saharan Africa


Countries modelled individually


  • Cameroon

  • Côte d’Ivoire

  • Ghana

  • Kenya

  • Nigeria

  • Rwanda

  • South Africa

  • Sudan

  • Tanzania

  • Uganda

  • Zambia


Countries not modelled individually, but modelled as part of the region as a whole


  • Angola

  • Benin

  • Botswana

  • Burkina Faso

  • Burundi

  • Cape Verde

  • Central African Republic

  • Chad

  • Comoros

  • Congo (Brazzaville)

  • Democratic Republic of Congo

  • Djibouti

  • Equatorial Guinea

  • Eritrea

  • Ethiopia

  • Gabon

  • Gambia

  • Guinea

  • Guinea-Bissau

  • Lesotho

  • Liberia

  • Madagascar

  • Malawi

  • Mali

  • Mauritania

  • Mauritius

  • Mayotte

  • Mozambique

  • Namibia

  • Niger

  • Réunion

  • São Tomé and Principe

  • Senegal

  • Seychelles

  • Sierra Leone

  • Somalia

  • Saint Helena

  • South Sudan

  • Swaziland

  • Togo


Key performance indicators

Connections

Mobile


  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M

  • Prepaid, contract

  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G

  • Smartphone,

  • non-smartphone


Fixed


  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up

  • Narrowband voice, VoBB

  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other


Fixed and mobile voice traffic


  • Outgoing minutes, MoU


Revenue

Mobile


  • Service, retail

  • Prepaid, contract

  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M

  • Handset voice, messaging, data


Fixed


  • Service, retail

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, business services

  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other


Mobile ARPU


  • SIMs, handset

  • Prepaid, contract

  • Handset voice, dat

The Sub-Saharan Africa telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2017–2022

Table of Contents

8. Executive summary
9. Telecoms revenue will grow at a 2.7% CAGR during 2016–2022 to USD45.2 billion amidst regulatory and macroeconomic challenges
10. Mobile handset data services will be the largest source of retail revenue growth in SSA between 2016 and 2022
11. Fixed and mobile revenue will grow in most countries, but competition and economic challenges will have a negative impact in some countries
12. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets in Sub-Saharan Africa
13. Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
14. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
15. Geographical coverage: We model eleven telecoms markets, which will account for 68.6% of SSA’s overall telecoms service revenue in 2022
16. Market context: The eleven countries modelled account for 51.0% of total population in SSA and 68.7% of its telecoms service revenue in 2016
17. Revenue and ARPU: Mobile and fixed data services will drive revenue growth in the region, but mobile voice revenue will continue to dominate
18. Mobile penetration: Connections will increase in most countries, driven by improved coverage and competition – but growth will slow down
19. Mobile connections: 2G will remain the predominant technology in SSA, while 4G will account for only 11.7% of mobile connections in 2022
20. Smartphones and LTE: South Africa will have the highest mobile 4G and smartphone share of handsets by 2022 – at 31.3% and 73.6%, respectively
21. Mobile broadband: Mobile connectivity has been central to tablet adoption, but substitution from smartphones and Wi-Fi will increase
22. Mobile ARPU: Spending on non-voice services will help to slow down ARPU decline in most countries in SSA
23. Data and revenue by generation: Improved network coverage, affordability of smartphones and price reductions are helping drive usage
24. Fixed services: Wireless access will retain the largest share of broadband services while fibre will experience the highest growth from a small base
25. Fixed broadband: South Africa is a regional leader in the wired broadband market thanks to competition and its developed infrastructure
26. Key drivers at a glance for each Sub-Saharan Africa market 27. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
28. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
29. Individual country forecasts
30. Ghana: Service revenue will exceed GHS5.1 billion in 2022, driven by handset data as mobile voice services remain largely flat
31. Ghana – mobile: Non-voice services, including mobile money, will help to boost revenue despite modest growth in terms of SIMs
32. Ghana – fixed: Household penetration of fixed services remains low despite growing interest from large players to invest in fibre
33. Kenya: Service revenue will reach over KES300 billion in 2022, driven by handset data services, including mobile money services
34. Kenya – mobile: Demand for data and mobile financial services will encourage the continued growth of connections and revenue
35. Kenya – fixed: Fibre will be increasingly positioned as an alternative DSL and a challenger to the dominant cable segment
36. Nigeria: Worsening economic conditions will impact fixed and mobile markets in terms of investment and spend outlook
37. Nigeria – mobile: Strong subscriber growth against the backdrop of weak economic outlook which will impact consumer spend
38. Nigeria – fixed: Entry of new players and continued investments in infrastructure should help to stimulate demand for services
39. South Africa: Service revenue will grow at a 1.7% CAGR during 2016–2022, driven by handset data services and fixed broadband
40. South Africa – mobile: The release of LTE spectrum will improve competition while economic difficulties will weaken demand
41. South Africa – fixed: Investment and market competition will help boost broadband coverage and adoption
42. Tanzania: Service revenue will reach TZS3.4 trillion in 2022, and more than 40% will be from mobile handset data
43. Tanzania – mobile: Rising smartphone take-up, 700MHz auction spectrum and mobile money will support revenue growth
44. Tanzania – fixed: Market growth will depend on the government’s ability to convert investments into service adoption
45. Uganda: Mobile handset data and fixed broadband services will drive overall service revenue to almost UGX3.4 trillion by 2022
46. Uganda – mobile: The shift from voice to data usage will be accompanied by revenue growth, despite low adoption of 4G
47. Uganda – fixed: Wireless will continue to dominate the broadband market, while VoIP will help to offset some of the PSTN losses

List of Figures

Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012–2022
Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016–2022
Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016–2022
Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Sub-Saharan Africa
Figure 5: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2022
Figure 6: Metrics for the eleven countries modelled individually in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016
Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012–2022
Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016–2022
Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016– 2022
Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), SubSaharan Africa, 2012–2022
Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G, 4G and 5G’s share of connections, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012–2022
Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE’s share of total connections (excluding M2M), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016 and 2022
Figure 13: Mobile broadband connections by screen size and technology, SubSaharan Africa, 2012–2022

Figure 14: Mobile ARPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012–2022
Figure 15: Mobile service revenue and ARPU by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa,
2012–2022
Figure 16: Data traffic (MB) and revenue per gigabyte, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012–2022
Figure 17: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012–2022
Figure 18: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012–2022
Figure 19: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2012) and future trajectory (2017–2022), by country, Sub-Saharan Africa
Figure 20a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
Figure 20b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
Figure 21: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Ghana, 2012–2022
Figure 22: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Ghana, 2016–2022
Figure 23: Connections by type, and growth rates, Ghana, 2016–2022
Figure 24: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Ghana, 2012– 2022
Figure 25: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Ghana, 2012–2022
Figure 26: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Ghana
Figure 27: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Ghana, 2012–2022
Figure 28: Fixed ASPU by service type, Ghana, 2012–2022
Figure 29: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Ghana
Figure 30: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Kenya, 2012–2022
Figure 31: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Kenya, 2016–2022
Figure 32: Connections by type, and growth rates, Kenya, 2016–2022
Figure 33: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Kenya, 2012– 2022
Figure 34: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Kenya, 2012–2022
Figure 35: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Kenya
Figure 36: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Kenya, 2012–2022
Figure 37: Fixed ASPU by service type, Kenya, 2012–2022
Figure 38: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Kenya
Figure 39: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Nigeria, 2012–2022
Figure 40: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Nigeria, 2016–2022
Figure 41: Connections by type, and growth rates, Nigeria, 2016–2022
Figure 42: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Nigeria, 2012– 2022
Figure 43: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Nigeria, 2012–2022
Figure 44: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Nigeria
Figure 45: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Nigeria, 2012–2022
Figure 46: Fixed ASPU by service type, Nigeria, 2012–2022
Figure 47: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Nigeria
Figure 48: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and to tal service revenue (retail and wholesale), South Africa, 2012–2022
Figure 49: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, South Africa, 2016–2022
Figure 50: Connections by type, and growth rates, South Africa, 2016–2022
Figure 51: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, South Africa, 2012–2022
Figure 52: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, South Africa, 2012–2022
Figure 53: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, South Africa
Figure 54: Fixed penetration rates by service type, South Africa, 2012–2022
Figure 55: Fixed ASPU by service type, South Africa, 2012–2022
Figure 56: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, South Africa
Figure 57: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Tanzania, 2012–2022
Figure 58: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Tanzania, 2016–2022
Figure 59: Connections by type, and growth rates, Tanzania, 2016–2022
Figure 60: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Tanzania, 2012– 2022

Figure 61: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Tanzania, 2012–2022
Figure 62: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Tanzania
Figure 63: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Tanzania, 2012–2022
Figure 64: Fixed ASPU by service type, Tanzania, 2012–2022
Figure 65: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Uganda
Figure 66: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Uganda, 2012–2022
Figure 67: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Uganda, 2016–2022
Figure 68: Connections by type, and growth rates, Uganda, 2016–2022
Figure 69: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Uganda, 2012– 2022
Figure 70: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Uganda, 2012–2022
Figure 71: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Uganda
Figure 72: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Uganda, 2012–2022
Figure 73: Fixed ASPU by service type, Uganda, 2012–2022
Figure 74: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Uganda

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