The Smartphones: worldwide trends and forecasts 2015–2020

The Smartphones: worldwide trends and forecasts 2015–2020

Table of Contents

7.Forecast summary
8.Executive summary
9.Worldwide trends
10.Smartphone markets are saturating – operators and vendors must reassess their priorities
11.Growth in unit sales will depend on emerging markets and will come mostly from emerging Asia–Pacific
12.Operators are key sources of smartphones in most regions, but they lost some ground to other channels in 2015
13.Vendor financing is the end-point of gradual shifts in operator device strategies rather than an abrupt change
14.Vendor financing plans are most likely to succeed in countries where users are ready for SIM-only contracts
15.Operator bundles are in demand and play a role in prepaid-to-postpaid migration
16.Apple leads the high-end market and Chinese vendors are capturing demand at the low end
17.iOS’s market share of unit sales will remain stable at around 15% until 2020
18.Western Europe
19.Migration to 4G boosts smartphone sales, but replacement cycles are slow and SIM-only contracts grow
20.Key regional trends
21.Central and Eastern Europe
22.Smartphone sales will grow strongly despite economic obstacles in key markets
23.Key regional trends
24.Middle East and North Africa
25.Surges in replacement activity and a large pool of potential first-time buyers will drive growth
26.Key regional trends
27.Sub-Saharan Africa
28.Low-cost models are still critical to smartphone adoption, but structural challenges remain
29.Key regional trends
30.Emerging Asia–Pacific
31.Low penetration rates and demand for mobile data usage will boost smartphone sales
32.Key regional trends
33.Developed Asia–Pacific
34.Apple provides growth in the high-end segment in an otherwise stalling smartphone market
35.Key regional trends
36.North America
37.Operators and vendors switch to new device financing and upgrade plans to stimulate demand
38.Key regional trends
39.Latin America
40.Demand for smartphones remains strong as mobile data connectivity and prices improve
41.Key regional trends
42.Forecast methodology and assumptions
43.Forecast methodology and assumptions
44.About the authors and Analysys Mason
45.About the authors and Analysys Mason
46.About Analysys Mason
47.Research from Analysys Mason
48.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures

Figure 1: Mobile handset unit sales by type, and smartphones’ share of unit sales, worldwide, 2012–2020
Figure 2: Mobile handset unit sales by type, and smartphones’ share of unit sales, worldwide, 2012–2020
Figure 3: Smartphone unit sales by region, 2014 and 2020
Figure 4: Percentage of respondents who bought their most recent handset from an operator, 16 countries, and averages for 2014 and 2015
Figure 5: Device bundling and financing plans by type
Figure 6: Seven areas of consideration for operators when assessing the potential impact of SIM-only and vendor financing take-up
Figure 7: Choice of next mobile tariff by type among those who plan to change their tariffs, by current tariff type, 6 European countries, USA and South Korea
Figure 8: Choice of next mobile tariff by type among those who plan to change their tariffs, by current tariff type, 8 countries in MEA and emerging APAC
Figure 9: Smartphone unit sales by manufacturer, worldwide, 2012–2020
Figure 10: Smartphone unit sales by operating system, worldwide, 2012–2020
Figure 11: Mobile handset connections by type, and smartphones’ share of connections, Western Europe, 2012–2020
Figure 12: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones’ share of mobile handset unit sales, Western Europe, 2012–2020
Figure 13: Key regional trends in handset markets, Western Europe
Figure 14: Mobile handset connections by type, and smartphones’ share of connections, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012–2020
Figure 15: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones’ share of mobile handset unit sales, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012–2020
Figure 16: Key regional trends in handset markets, Central and Eastern Europe
Figure 17: Mobile handset connections by type, and smartphones’ share of connections, Middle East and North Africa, 2012–2020
Figure 18: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones’ share of mobile handset unit sales, Middle East and North Africa, 2012–2020
Figure 19: Key regional trends in handset markets, Middle East and North Africa
Figure 20: Mobile handset connections by type, and smartphones’ share of connections, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012–2020
Figure 21: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones’ share of mobile handset unit sales, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012–2020
Figure 22: Key regional trends in handset markets, Sub-Saharan Africa
Figure 23: Mobile handset connections by type, and smartphones’ share of connections, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2020
Figure 24: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones’ share of mobile handset unit sales, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2020
Figure 25: Key regional trends in handset markets, emerging Asia–Pacific
Figure 26: Mobile handset connections by type, and smartphones’ share of connections, developed Asia–Pacific, 2012–2020
Figure 27: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones’ share of mobile handset unit sales, developed Asia–Pacific, 2012–2020
Figure 28: Key regional trends in handset markets, developed Asia–Pacific
Figure 29: Mobile handset connections by type, and smartphones’ share of connections, North America, 2012–2020
Figure 30: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones’ share of mobile handset unit sales, North America, 2012–2020
Figure 31: Key regional trends in handset markets, North America
Figure 32: Mobile handset connections by type, and smartphones’ share of connections, Latin America, 2012–2020
Figure 33: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones’ share of mobile handset unit sales, Latin America, 2012–2020
Figure 34: Key regional trends in handset markets, Latin America
Figure 35: Main enablers and constraints for our smartphone forecasts

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