The Pharmaceutical Market: South Africa Opportunities and Challenges

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Date: 8-Nov-2012
No. of pages: 103
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OVERVIEW OF THE PHARMACEUTICAL MARKET IN SOUTH AFRICA

The government drive to support local production and reduce the country’s reliance on imports, in addition to global epidemiological and demographic trends, are all positive factors contributing to long-term growth in the pharmaceutical market. However, deep segregation between private and public healthcare facilities continues to leave the vast majority of the population without medical care. BMI believes this will be rectified through the creation of the National Health Insurance scheme over the next decade, but in the meantime unemployment, lack of education and geographical inaccessibility to healthcare for the wider population will continue to hinder growth in the market.

Headline Expenditure Projections Pharmaceuticals: ZAR27.19bn (US$3.74bn) in 2011 to ZAR29.61bn (US$3.61bn) in 2012; +8.9% in local currency and -3.5% in US dollar terms. Healthcare: ZAR261.51bn (US$36.01bn) in 2011 to ZAR285.26bn (US$34.79bn) in 2012; +9.1% in local currency terms and -3.4% in US dollar terms. Medical devices: ZAR11.43bn (US$1.57bn) in 2011 to ZAR12.19bn (US$1.49bn) in 2012; +6.7% in local currency terms and -5.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast changed due to depreciation of the South African rand.

Product Description

The South Africa Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Espicom’s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

Espicom’s South Africa Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the South Africa pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark Espicom’s independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts to test other views – a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the South Africa pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in South Africa.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Executive Summary & Industry SWOT

An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect Espicom’s forecast analysis, and taken together with Espicom’s political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Market Summary
Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.

Regulatory Regime
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Industry Developments
Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Espicom Industry Forecasts
Forecasts to end-2016 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (US$bn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (US$), hospital beds (per `000 population), doctors (per `000 population), birth and mortality rate (per `000 population)
  • Pharmaceutical market: Drug expenditure (US$bn), drug expenditure (% of GDP), drug expenditure per capita (US$)
  • Patented drug market: Prescription drug sales (US$bn), prescription sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by 14 therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, anti-infectives etc.)
  • Generic drug market: Generic product sales (US$bn), generic sales (% of total sales)
  • OTC drug market: OTC sales (US$bn), OTC sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by product types (analgesics, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals etc.)
  • Medical Devices: Medical device sales (US$bn), medical device sales (% of total healthcare market)
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of Espicom’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

The Pharmaceutical Market: South Africa Opportunities and Challenges

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... 1
Snapshot: Strategic Espicom Analysis.........2
Snapshot: Key Data Projections......3

MACROENVIRONMENT . 4

POLITICAL.....4

ECONOMIC...5
Projections...........5

LEGAL............6

DEMOGRAPHIC........7
Projections...........7
Latest Figures.......8
Demographic Indicators..9
Birth Rate... 9
Death Rate. 9
Infant MortalityRate (IMR) 9
Life Expectancy at Birth.... 9

EPIDEMIOLOGY............ 10

DISEASE BURDEN...10

DISEASE PREVALENCE........11
Communicable Diseases11
HIV/AIDS... 11
Malaria...... 11
TB.. 12
Non-Communicable Diseases....12
Cancer....... 12

HEALTHCARE - ACCOMPANYING HEALTH STATISTICS.. 13

ORGANISATION......13
National Health Insurance..........13

EXPENDITURE.........14
Projections.........14
Latest Figures.....15

INFRASTRUCTURE..16
Hospital Infrastructure..16
Netcare Group ..... 17
Hospital Bed Provision...17

WORKFORCE...........18
Projections.........18
Physicians...........19
Public Workforce............19

REGULATORY AFFAIRS 20

NATIONAL AUTHORITY..... 20

MARKETING REGISTRATION.......... 20
National Procedures.......20

TRADE REGULATIONS ........21
Parallel Trade.....21

PRICING & REIMBURSEMENT... 22

NATIONAL AUTHORITY..... 22

PRICING...... 22
Dispensing Fees Charged by Pharmacists..........22

REIMBURSEMENT . 23
Essential Drugs List........23

DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS....... 24

DRUG RETAILING....24
Public Pharmacies............24
Private Pharmacies..........24
Pharmacy Trade Association......25
USAP.........25
Leading Pharmacy Chains..........25
Clicks.........25
Dischem...25
Medipost Courier Pharmacy.......25

MARKET ANALYSIS....... 26

SIZE 26
Projections.........26
Historical Figures............28
Current Structure............29
ARV Tender...........30

PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT 30

MANUFACTURING. 30

TRADE.........31
Exports..31
Imports..33
Balance of Trade38

COMPETITION.. 39

TRADE ASSOCIATION..........39

PIASA........39

COMPANY INTELLIGENCE. 40
Adcock Ingram.....40
Aspen Pharmacare...........40
Merck South Africa........... 41
Competitive Strategies..41
OTC PHARMACEUTICALS.......... 43

MARKET SIZE...........43

COMPETITION.........43
Trade Association...........43
SMASA......43

GENERIC PHARMACEUTICALS 44

MARKET SIZE.......... 44

COMPETITION........ 44
Trade Association...........44
NAPM........44
Company Intelligence....45
Aspen Pharmacare...........45
Cipla Medpro........45
Ranbaxy...45

BIOLOGICS & BIOSIMILARS......46

PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT 46
Lifelab.......46
TIA46

COMPETITION........ 46
Trade Association...........46
IMSA..........46
Company Intelligence....47
Arvir Technologies........... 47
Bioclones.. 47
Elevation Biotech. 47
iThemba Pharmaceuticals........... 47
Key Oncologics..... 47
National Bioproducts Institute... 47

CONCLUSIONS: OPPORTUNITIES & CHALLENGES.........48
Strategic Espicom Analysis............ 48
MACROENVIRONMENT...48
EPIDEMIOLOGY..48
HEALTHCARE......48
REGULATORY AFFAIRS....49
PRICING & REIMBURSEMENT......49
DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS..........50
MARKET.50
COMPETITION ....51
OTC PHARMACEUTICALS51
GENERIC PHARMACEUTICALS.....51
BIOLOGICS & BIOSIMILARS.........51
Radar Analysis........53
SWOT Analysis........53

DIRECTORY...... 54

COMPETITION........ 54
Pharmaceutical Companies........54
Generic Companies........54
Biologic Companies........54

GOVERNMENT ORGANISATIONS.. 54

PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT 54

TRADE ORGANISATIONS... 54

List of Tables
Espicom Analysis of the Pharmaceutical Market, 2012.. 2
Key Data Projections, 2011-2016.......... 3
Political Landscape, 2012........ 4
Regional Ranking of Projected Economies, 2016........... 5
Projected Economy, 2011-2016............ 5
Regional Ranking of Projected Demographics, 2016..... 7
Projected Demographics, 2011-2016... 7
Population by Gender & Province, 2011............ 8
Population by Gender & Age, 2011...... 8
Births, Deaths & Natural Increase, 1997-2010.. 9
Selected Causes of Death by Sex, 2007-2009.. 10
Estimated Number of Adults & Children Receiving ART, 2005-2010.......11
Reported Cases of Selected Communicble Diseases, 1990-201012
Regional Ranking of Projected Health Expenditure, 2016........ 14
Projected Health Expenditure, 2011-2016....... 14
Health Funding by Sector, 2007/08-2009/10 (Rand Millions)...15
Public Sector Hospitals by Province, 2004-2011........... 16
Private Sector Hospitals by Province, 2004-2010......... 16
Public Sector Hospital Beds by Province, 2005-2009....17
Private Sector Hospital Beds by Province, 1998-2010...17
Regional Ranking of Projected Physicians, 2016.......... 18
Projected Physicians, 2011-2016........ 18
Physicians by Province, 2009-2011.... 19
Public Physicians, Nurses, Dentists & Pharmacists, 2000-2011 19
Regional Ranking of Projected Pharmaceutical Markets, 2016 26
Projected Pharmaceutical Market at Retail Prices, 2011-2016.. 28
Historical Pharmaceutical Market at Retail Prices, 1995-2010. 28
Pharmaceutical Retail Sales by Month at Current Prices, 2005-2011 (R Millions) 29
Pharmaceutical Exports by Category, 1995-2010 (US$000s).... 31
Pharmaceutical Exports by Country/Region, 2010 (US$000s).. 32
Pharmaceutical Imports by Category, 1995-2010 (US$000s)... 33
Imports of Raw Materials by Country/Region, 2010 (US$000s)............ 35
Imports of Antisera & Vaccines by Country/Region, 2010 (US$000s).... 36
Imports of Medicaments by Country/Region, 2010 (US$000s) 37
Balance of Pharmaceutical Trade, 1995-2010 (US$000s)......... 38
Member Companies of PIASA, 2011... 39
Member Companies of SMASA, 2011. 43
Member Companies of NAPM, 2011..44
Member Companies of IMSA, 2011....46
Espicom Analysis of the Pharmaceutical Market, 2012 52
SWOT Analysis of the Pharmaceutical Market, 2012... 53

List of Charts
Regional Comparison of Projected Pharmaceutical Markets at Retail Prices, 2016 27
Regional Comparison of Projected Pharmaceutical Market Share, 2016........... 27
Historical Pharmaceutical Market at Retail Prices, 1995-2010. 29
Pharmaceutical Exports, 1995-2010 (US$ Millions) .... 31
Pharmaceutical Imports, 1995-2010 (US$ Millions).... 33
Pharmaceutical Imports by Country/Region, 2010 (%)............ 34
Balance of Pharmaceutical Trade, 1995-2010 (US$ Millions)... 38
Radar Graph of the Pharmaceutical Market, 2012...... 53

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