The Pay TV and OTT video in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2018–2023
Table of Contents:
5.Executive summary
6.The future of Western European pay TV is OTT video
Traditional pay-TV spend will peak in 2019, but operators and pay-TV providers will gain EUR2.4 billion in incremental revenue from their own OTT services by 2023
The extent to which operators and pay-TV providers embrace OTT delivery will significantly influence future retail revenue growth in each country in Western Europe
Regional trends
Geographical coverage: IPTV is now the dominant access technology in France, Portugal, Spain and Switzerland
OTT services delivered by pay-TV providers will grow the total retail revenue captured by ‘traditional’ players from EUR32.5 billion in 2018 to EUR34.9 billion in 2023
Retail revenue for SVoD services will almost double between 2018 and 2023, but revenue from the delivery of linear services will grow from 18% to 29% of spend
Traditional pay-TV connections will remain stable, but subscription growth will be driven by traditional players’ own OTT service launches
SVoD will continue to be the most-popular retail model for OTT video in Western Europe, but linear service use will grow more rapidly
Country-level trends
France: bundling will stem the decline of traditional access technologies
while providers use OTT delivery to pursue secondary subscriptions
France: Netflix and Amazon drove SVoD growth over 2017 and 2018, but
future revenue growth will be driven by linear channel subscriptions
5.Germany: contract flexibility appears to have been the linchpin to unlocking greater consumer appetite for TV and video services
Germany: OTT services will continue to be dominated by international SVoD providers primarily because of pricing
Italy: operator OTT will account for the majority of pay-TV delivery by 2023
Italy: operator involvement in linear OTT services will dominate the future of the wider OTT market in Italy
Spain: IP delivery of content is stronger here than in the rest of Western
Europe
Spain: Netflix dominates local OTT competition
UK: Sky’s actions dominate the market; OTT integration into traditional STBs from Sky and BT will add further complexity to the market
UK: SVoD will continue to generate most OTT video revenue, but linear OTT services will grow at a more-rapid rate, exceeding EUR1 billion by 2022
Forecast methodology and assumptions
Our spend forecasts focus on the direct flow of money between consumers and OTT video providers
How we classify OTT video services in this forecast
Further definitions
About the authors and Analysys Mason
About the authors
Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned
Research from Analysys Mason
Consulting from Analysys Mason
List of Figures:
Figure 1: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue and ASPU, Western Europe, 2015–20231
Figure 2: Pay-TV and OTT video retail revenue growth by service type, Western Europe, 2018–2023
Figure 3: Contribution of traditional pay TV and OTT video to total change in retail revenue in Western Europe, 2018–2023
Figure 4: Household penetration of pay TV and the population penetration of operator OTT by country, Western Europe, 2023
Figure 5: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue for operators and pay-TV providers, Western Europe, 2015–2023
Figure 6: Pay-TV spend and CAGRs by service type, Western Europe, 2018–2023
Figure 7: Pay-TV connections and CAGRs by service type, Western Europe, 2018–2023
Figure 8: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, Western Europe, 2015–2023
Figure 9: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, Western Europe, 2018–2023
Figure 10: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, Western Europe, 2018–2023
Figure 11: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, Western Europe, 2015–2023
Figure 12: OTT video users by business model, Western Europe, 2015–2023
Figure 13: Pay-TV connections and OTT video users by access technology, France, 2015–2023
Figure 14: Retail revenue by OTT video service type, and ASPU, France, 2015–2023
Figure 15: Number of users by service type, France, 2015–2023
Figure 16: Pay-TV connections and OTT video users by access technology, Germany, 2015–2023
Figure 17: Retail revenue by OTT video service type, and ASPU, Germany, 2015–2023
Figure 18: Number of users by service type, Germany, 2015–2023
Figure 19: Pay-TV connections and OTT video users by access technology, Italy, 2015–2023
Figure 20: Retail revenue by OTT video service type, and ASPU, Italy, 2015–2023
Figure 21: Number of users by service type, Italy, 2015–2023
Figure 22: Pay-TV connections and OTT video users by access technology, Spain, 2015–2023
Figure 23: Retail revenue by OTT video service type, and ASPU, Spain, 2015–2023
Figure 24: Number of users by service type, Spain, 2015–2023
Figure 25: Pay-TV connections and OTT video users by access technology, UK, 2015–2023
Figure 26: Retail revenue by OTT video service type, and ASPU, UK, 2015–20231
Figure 27: Number of users by service type, UK, 2015–2023
Figure 28: Scope of our spend forecasts
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