The North America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2019-2024
Table of Contents
7.Executive summary and recommendations
Fixed broadband revenue will be the main contributor to telecoms revenue growth in North America between 2018 and 2024
The telecoms market in North America is reasonably mature and will grow more slowly than the rest of the economy in the region between 2018 and 2024
Geographical coverage: 4G and 5G will be the only mobile technologies used in the region by 2023; 2G and 3G will shut down, allowing spectrum to be refarmed
Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
Key recommendations for telecoms operators
Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
Market context: the economies in Canada and the USA have been growing at a slow pace, and may fall into recession in the coming years
Key mergers, acquisitions and market entries
Key drivers at a glance for each North America market
Market overview: revenue growth in the telecoms market will be limited due to declines in wholesale and fixed voice revenue
Mobile: the number of 5G connections will grow rapidly once 5G handsets become more widely available and 5G network coverage grows
Mobile: growth in the number of connections will be the main driver of revenue growth because mobile ARPU will remain largely constant
Mobile: low levels of competition in the mobile segment will lead to slow but stable growth in mobile revenue during the forecast period
Fixed: fixed revenue will grow during the forecast period despite a large decline in voice revenue, mainly due to growth in the number of NGA connections
22.Fixed: fixed broadband ASPU will increase between 2018 and 2024 due to a lack of competition and because consumers are willing to pay more for faster services
Fixed: fixed broadband will be the main driver of revenue growth in the fixed segment thanks to growth in both ARPU and household penetration
Specialist business services: enterprise business revenue growth will be driven by revenue from non-operators that provide other business services
IoT: the total IoT value chain revenue will grow considerably over the forecast period, but connectivity revenue will only account for a small proportion
Pay TV: cord-cutting will continue in North America, and traditional pay-TV service revenue will decline
Individual country forecasts
Canada: the total service revenue will continue to grow, driven by a lack of competition in the fixed broadband market
Canada: the number of fixed broadband connections will continue to increase as operators expand their networks to underserved areas
Canada: the lack of challengers to the established operators will keep fixed broadband ASPU at a high level, but mobile ARPU growth will be limited
Canada: forecast changes
USA: the mobile sector will be the main driver of telecoms revenue growth thanks to an increase in mobile penetration during the forecast period
USA: fixed broadband ASPU is forecast to grow between 2018 and 2024, mostly because of the low level of competition in the market
USA: the potential merger between T-Mobile and Sprint is creating a lot of uncertainty in the market and may lead to a decline in competition
USA: forecast changes
36.Methodology
Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
Examples of forecast input drivers
Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
About the authors and Analysys Mason
About the authors
Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned
Research from Analysys Mason
Consulting from Analysys Mason
List of Figures:
Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, North America, 2014–2024
Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, North America, 2018–2024
Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, North America, 2018 and 2024
Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for North America
Figure 5: Metrics for the two countries modelled individually in North America, 2018
Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in North America
Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2018) and future trajectory (2019–2024), by country, North America
Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, North America (USD billion), 2014–2024
Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, North America (million), 2014–2024
Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, North America, 2014–2024
Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, North America (million), 2014–2024
Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, North America (million), 2014–2024
Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, North America (USD per month), 2014–2024
Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), North America, 2014–2024
Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, North America (GB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 16: Mobile penetration by country, North America, 2014–2024
Figure 17: Mobile ARPU by country, North America, 2014–2024
Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, North America (million), 2014–2024
Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, North America (USD billion), 2014–2024
Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, North America, 2014–2024
Figure 21: Fixed internet traffic per broadband connection, North America (GB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 22: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, North America, 2014–2024
Figure 23: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, North America, 2014–2024
Figure 24: Total market revenue from specialist business services, North America, 2014–2024
Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, North America, 2014–2024
Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay TV, North America, 2014–2024
Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Canada (CAD billion), 2014–2024
Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, Canada (million), 2014–2024
Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Canada, 2014–2024
Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Canada (million), 2014–2024
Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Canada, 2014–2024
Figure 32: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Canada (CAD per month), 2014–2024
Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, Canada (GB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, Canada (million), 2014–2024
Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Canada, 2014–2024
Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, USA (USD billion), 2014–2024
Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, USA (million), 2014–2024
Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, USA, 2014–2024
Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, USA (million), 2014–2024
Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, USA, 2014–2024
Figure 41: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, USA (USD per month), 2014–2024
Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, USA (GB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, USA (million), 2014–2024
Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, USA, 2014–2024
Figure 45a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
Figure 45b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
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