The North America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2017–2022 based on 3Q 2017 data
Table of Contents
8.Telecoms revenue in North America will be stagnant due to a declining US mobile market
9.The lack of a disrupting operator will support faster growth in Canada
10.Geographical coverage: The USA accounts for 90% of the regional revenue total
11.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets in North America
12.Key recommendations for telecoms operators
13.Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
14.Market context: Both countries’ economies are expected to grow at a steady rate
15.Key mergers, acquisitions, and market entries
16.Key drivers at a glance for each North America market
17.Market overview: A declining US mobile market will prevent total revenue growth
18.Mobile: User base will grow across the region, both in prepaid and postpaid segments
19.Mobile: Competition will drive down ARPU in the USA, but not in Canada
20.Mobile: North America will be at the forefront of new technology adoption
21.Fixed: Broadband penetration will grow slowly due to saturation
22.Fixed: Broadband price growth shows few signs of slowing down
23.Fixed: Regional monopolistic/duopolistic market structure and upselling to faster speeds will continue to support broadband ASPU growth
24.Business services: Telecoms operators will only capture a small proportion of the enterprise software market
25.IoT: The automotive segment will be the largest single contributor to IoT revenue
26.Individual country forecasts
27.Canada: Telecoms revenue will grow thanks to user base and ARPU growth in both fixed and mobile markets
28.Canada: The overwhelming majority of mobile connections will be on 4G by 2018
29.Canada: A lack of disruptive operators will support continued revenue growth
30.Canada: Forecast changes
31.USA: A declining mobile market and a growing fixed market will combine for a slight decline in total telecoms revenue
32.USA: Lenient spectrum usage regulation will allow MNOs to shut down legacy technology and focus on 4G and 5G instead
33.USA: T-Mobile will continue to drive competition in the mobile market
34.USA: Forecast changes
36.Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
37.Examples of forecast input drivers
38.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology 
39.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology 
40.About the authors and Analysys Mason
41.About the author
42.Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned
43.Research from Analysys Mason
44.Consulting from Analysys Mason
List of Figures
Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, North America, 2012–2022
Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP growth by country, North America, 2016–2022
Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and next-generation access share of fixed broadband connections by country, North America, 2016 and 2022
Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for North America
Figure 5: Metrics for the two countries modelled individually in North America, 2016
Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in North America
Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2016) and future trajectory (2017–2022), by country, North America
Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, North America (USD billion), 2012–2022
Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, North America (million), 2012–2022
Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, North America, 2012–2022
Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, North America (million), 2012–2022
Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, North America (million), 2012–2022
Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, North America (USD per month), 2012–2022
Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), North America, 2012–2022
Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, North America (MB per month), 2012–2022
Figure 16: Mobile penetration by country, North America, 2012–2022
Figure 17: Mobile ARPU by country, North America, 2012–2022
Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, North America (million), 2012–2022
Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, North America (USD billion), 2012–2022
Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, North America, 2012–2022
Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, North America (MB per month), 2012–2022
Figure 22: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, North America, 2012–2022
Figure 23: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, North America, 2012–2022
Figure 24: Total market revenue from business services, North America, 2012–2022
Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, North America, 2013–2022
Figure 26: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Canada (CAD billion), 2012–2022
Figure 27: Mobile connections by type, Canada (million), 2012–2022
Figure 28: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Canada, 2012–2022
Figure 29: Fixed connections by type, Canada (million), 2012–2022
Figure 30: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Canada, 2012–2022
Figure 31: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Canada (CAD per month), 2012–2022
Figure 32: Mobile data traffic per connection, Canada (MB per month), 2012–2022
Figure 33: Broadband connections by technology, Canada (million), 2012–2022
Figure 34: Total telecoms service revenue –current and previous forecasts, Canada, 2012–2022
Figure 35: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, USA (USD billion), 2012–2022
Figure 36: Mobile connections by type, USA (million), 2012–2022
Figure 37: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, USA, 2012–2022
Figure 38: Fixed connections by type, USA (million), 2012–2022
Figure 39: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, USA, 2012–2022
Figure 40: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, USA (USD per month), 2012–2022
Figure 41: Mobile data traffic per connection, USA (MB per month), 2012–2022
Figure 42: Broadband connections by technology, USA (million), 2012–2022
Figure 43: Total telecoms service revenue –current and previous forecasts, USA, 2012–2022
Figure 44a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
Figure 44b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
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