The North America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2017–2022 based on 3Q 2017 data

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Date: 05-Jan-2018
No. of pages: 25
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"Telecoms revenue in North America will stagnate during the forecast period at around USD400 billion annually due to a decline in the US mobile market."

We expect fixed operators across Canada and the USA to continue upselling faster broadband connections at higher prices, as well as taking advantage of uncompetitive markets. The Canadian mobile market will continue to grow due to the absence of a challenger operator, but service revenue in the USA will decline as T-Mobile maintains its aggressive strategy.

This report and associated data annex provide:


  • a 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for North America (NA) and for the two countries in the region

  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for the two countries

  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, which highlights similarities and differences between the two countries

  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.


Coverage

Geographical coverage

Region modelled


  • North America (NA)


Countries modelled individually


  • Canada

  • USA


Key performance indicators

Connections

Mobile


  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT

  • Prepaid, contract

  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G

  • Smartphone,

  • non-smartphone


Fixed


  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up

  • Narrowband voice, VoBB

  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other


Fixed and mobile voice traffic


  • Outgoing minutes, MoU


Revenue

Mobile


  • Service, retail

  • Prepaid, contract

  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT

  • Handset voice, messaging, data


Fixed


  • Service, retail

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, business services

  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other


Mobile ARPU


  • SIMs, handset

  • Prepaid, contract

  • Handset voice, data

The North America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2017–2022 based on 3Q 2017 data

Table of Contents

Executive summary
8.Telecoms revenue in North America will be stagnant due to a declining US mobile market
9.The lack of a disrupting operator will support faster growth in Canada
10.Geographical coverage: The USA accounts for 90% of the regional revenue total
11.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets in North America
12.Key recommendations for telecoms operators
13.Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
14.Market context: Both countries’ economies are expected to grow at a steady rate
15.Key mergers, acquisitions, and market entries
16.Key drivers at a glance for each North America market
17.Market overview: A declining US mobile market will prevent total revenue growth
18.Mobile: User base will grow across the region, both in prepaid and postpaid segments
19.Mobile: Competition will drive down ARPU in the USA, but not in Canada
20.Mobile: North America will be at the forefront of new technology adoption
21.Fixed: Broadband penetration will grow slowly due to saturation
22.Fixed: Broadband price growth shows few signs of slowing down
23.Fixed: Regional monopolistic/duopolistic market structure and upselling to faster speeds will continue to support broadband ASPU growth
24.Business services: Telecoms operators will only capture a small proportion of the enterprise software market
25.IoT: The automotive segment will be the largest single contributor to IoT revenue
26.Individual country forecasts
27.Canada: Telecoms revenue will grow thanks to user base and ARPU growth in both fixed and mobile markets
28.Canada: The overwhelming majority of mobile connections will be on 4G by 2018
29.Canada: A lack of disruptive operators will support continued revenue growth
30.Canada: Forecast changes
31.USA: A declining mobile market and a growing fixed market will combine for a slight decline in total telecoms revenue
32.USA: Lenient spectrum usage regulation will allow MNOs to shut down legacy technology and focus on 4G and 5G instead
33.USA: T-Mobile will continue to drive competition in the mobile market
34.USA: Forecast changes
35.Methodology
36.Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
37.Examples of forecast input drivers
38.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
39.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
40.About the authors and Analysys Mason
41.About the author
42.Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned
43.Research from Analysys Mason
44.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures

Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, North America, 2012–2022
Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP growth by country, North America, 2016–2022
Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and next-generation access share of fixed broadband connections by country, North America, 2016 and 2022
Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for North America
Figure 5: Metrics for the two countries modelled individually in North America, 2016
Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in North America
Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2016) and future trajectory (2017–2022), by country, North America
Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, North America (USD billion), 2012–2022
Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, North America (million), 2012–2022
Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, North America, 2012–2022
Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, North America (million), 2012–2022
Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, North America (million), 2012–2022
Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, North America (USD per month), 2012–2022
Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), North America, 2012–2022
Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, North America (MB per month), 2012–2022
Figure 16: Mobile penetration by country, North America, 2012–2022
Figure 17: Mobile ARPU by country, North America, 2012–2022
Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, North America (million), 2012–2022
Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, North America (USD billion), 2012–2022
Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, North America, 2012–2022
Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, North America (MB per month), 2012–2022
Figure 22: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, North America, 2012–2022
Figure 23: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, North America, 2012–2022
Figure 24: Total market revenue from business services, North America, 2012–2022
Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, North America, 2013–2022
Figure 26: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Canada (CAD billion), 2012–2022
Figure 27: Mobile connections by type, Canada (million), 2012–2022
Figure 28: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Canada, 2012–2022
Figure 29: Fixed connections by type, Canada (million), 2012–2022
Figure 30: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Canada, 2012–2022
Figure 31: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Canada (CAD per month), 2012–2022
Figure 32: Mobile data traffic per connection, Canada (MB per month), 2012–2022
Figure 33: Broadband connections by technology, Canada (million), 2012–2022
Figure 34: Total telecoms service revenue –current and previous forecasts, Canada, 2012–2022
Figure 35: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, USA (USD billion), 2012–2022
Figure 36: Mobile connections by type, USA (million), 2012–2022
Figure 37: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, USA, 2012–2022
Figure 38: Fixed connections by type, USA (million), 2012–2022
Figure 39: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, USA, 2012–2022
Figure 40: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, USA (USD per month), 2012–2022
Figure 41: Mobile data traffic per connection, USA (MB per month), 2012–2022
Figure 42: Broadband connections by technology, USA (million), 2012–2022
Figure 43: Total telecoms service revenue –current and previous forecasts, USA, 2012–2022
Figure 44a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
Figure 44b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores

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