The Mobile services worldwide: trends and forecasts 2017–2022 based on 2Q and 3Q 2017 data

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Date: 22-Jun-2018
No. of pages: 22
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Mobile retail revenue will account for 60% of the total fixed and mobile retail telecoms revenue worldwide by 2022; large disparities will continue between regions in terms of network coverage, service adoption and pricing of services.

This report examines key trends and drivers and provides comprehensive mobile telecoms market forecasts worldwide and for 8 individually modelled regions: including North America, Latin America, Western Europe, Central and Eastern Europe, developed Asia–Pacific, emerging Asia–Pacific, the Middle East and North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa.

This report provides:


  • a 5-year forecast of 127 mobile KPIs for the worldwide telecoms markets and eight geographical regions

  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile service, and for eight geographical regions

  • an overview of operator strategies and region-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-region comparison

  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile operators.


Coverage

Geographical coverage

Regions modelled


  • Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)

  • Developed Asia–Pacific (DVAP)

  • Emerging Asia–Pacific (EMAP)

  • Latin America (LATAM)

  • Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

  • North America (NA)

  • Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)

  • Western Europe (WE)


Key performance indicators


  • Connections


Mobile


  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT

  • Prepaid, contract

  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G

  • Smartphone,

  • non-smartphone


Mobile voice traffic


  • Outgoing minutes, MoU


Revenue

Mobile


  • Service, retail

  • Prepaid, contract

  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT

  • Handset voice, messaging, data


Mobile ARPU


  • SIMs, handset

  • Prepaid, contract

  • Handset voice, data

The Mobile services worldwide: trends and forecasts 2017–2022 based on 2Q and 3Q 2017 data

Table of Contents

Executive summary
Mobile handset data and next-generation access broadband services will drive telecoms retail revenue growth worldwide

Worldwide trends
Worldwide: the number of mobile connections will continue to grow steadily, driven by service take-up in emerging Asia–Pacific
Worldwide: increasing demand for data services, and the migration from prepaid to contract, will help to reduce the rate of decline in ARPU
Worldwide: mobile retail revenue growth will continue, driven by increasing data service revenue
Key mergers, acquisitions, and market entries [1/2]
Key mergers, acquisitions, and market entries [2/2]

Regional trends
Central and Eastern Europe: price competition has declined and telecoms service revenue will increase during the forecast period
Central and Eastern Europe: the widespread deployment of LTE infrastructure will support mobile revenue growth in CEE
Emerging Asia–Pacific: the total telecoms service revenue will increase to USD328 billion in 2022
Emerging Asia–Pacific: most operators will focus on data monetisation over the forecast period
Developed Asia–Pacific: total telecoms service revenue in DVAP will stabilise at around USD190 billion in 2022
21.Developed Asia–Pacific: operators continue to drive advances in technology, expecting to ease migration to OTT
22.Latin America: the total revenue increase will continue, driven mostly by mobile handset and fixed broadband revenue growth
23.Latin America: telecoms revenue will continue to grow despite pressure from competition and increasing market saturation
24.Middle East and North Africa: mobile and fixed data services will drive revenue growth in the region
25.Middle East and North Africa: data revenue will help offset the slowdown in revenue growth for legacy services
26.North America: a declining US mobile market will prevent overall revenue growth
27.North America: North America will be at the forefront of new technology adoption
28.Sub-Saharan Africa: mobile and fixed data services will drive revenue growth, but mobile voice will continue to dominate
29.Sub-Saharan Africa: growth rates for SIM penetration will drop to single digits in most markets
30.Western Europe: overall revenue will remain relatively stable, with fixed broadband acting as the main source of fixed revenue growth
31.Western Europe: the growth in mobile usage will be driven by technological upgrades and tariffing
32.Methodology
33.Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
34.Examples of forecast input drivers
35.About the author and Analysys Mason
36.About the author
37.About Analysys Mason
38.Research from Analysys Mason
39.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures:

Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, worldwide, 2012–2022
Figure 2: Mobile connections by generation, worldwide (million), 2012–2022
Figure 3: Mobile ARPU by type, worldwide (USD per month), 2012–2022
Figure 4: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), worldwide, 2012–2022
Figure 5: Mobile data traffic per connection, worldwide (MB per month), 2012–2022
Figure 6: Mobile penetration by country, worldwide, 2012–2022
Figure 7: Mobile ARPU by country, worldwide, 2012–2022
Figure 8a: Recent and upcoming market structure changes worldwide
gure 8b: Recent and upcoming market structure changes worldwide
Figure 9: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Central and Eastern Europe (USD billion), 2012–2022
Figure 10: Mobile connections by type, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2012–2022
Figure 11: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012–2022
Figure 12: Mobile ARPU, Central and Eastern Europe (USD per month), 2012–2022
Figure 13: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Emerging Asia–Pacific (USD billion), 2012–2022
Figure 14: Mobile connections by type, Emerging Asia–Pacific (billion), 2012–2022
Figure 15: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022
Figure 16: Mobile ARPU, Emerging Asia–Pacific (USD per month), 2012–2022
Figure 17: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Developed Asia–Pacific (USD billion), 2012–2022
Figure 18: Mobile connections by type, Developed Asia–Pacific (million), 2012–2022
Figure 19: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Developed Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022
Figure 20: Mobile ARPU, Developed Asia–Pacific (million), 2012–2022
Figure 21: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Latin America (USD billion), 2012–2022
Figure 22: Mobile connections by type, Latin America (million), 2012–2022
Figure 23: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Latin America, 2012–2022
Figure 24: Mobile ARPU, Latin America (million), 2012–2022
Figure 25: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Middle East and North Africa (USD billion), 2012–2022
Figure 26: Mobile connections by type, Middle East and North Africa (million), 2012–2022
Figure 27: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Middle East and North Africa, 2012–2022
Figure 28: Mobile ARPU, Middle East and North Africa (million), 2012–2022
Figure 29: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, North America (USD billion), 2012–2022
Figure 30: Mobile connections by type, North America (million), 2012–2022
Figure 31: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, North America, 2012–2022
Figure 32: Mobile ARPU, North America (million), 2012–2022
Figure 33: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Sub-Saharan Africa (USD billion), 2012–2022
Figure 34: Mobile connections by type, Sub-Saharan Africa (billion), 2012–2022
Figure 35: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012–2022
Figure 36: Mobile ARPU, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), 2012–2022
Figure 37: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Western Europe (USD billion), 2012–2022
Figure 38: Mobile connections by type, Western Europe (million), 2012–2022
Figure 39: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Western Europe, 2012–2022
Figure 40: Mobile ARPU, Western Europe (million), 2012–2022

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