The Mobile services in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2016–2021
Table of Contents
5. Executive summary
6. Executive summary
7. Worldwide trends
8. Revenue worldwide will increase in the mobile and fixed segments driven by infrastructure investments in network roll-out
9. Demand for, and the fast pace of take-up of, mobile in EMAP and SSA will boost penetration to 105% worldwide by 2021
10. Smartphones will account for 69% of handsets worldwide and take-up will be highest in NA (95%) and WE (93%)
11. Mobile ARPU: The high level of competition and substitution by OTT services will continue to put downward pressure on ARPU
12. Regional trends
13. The decline in mobile broadband ARPU slowed in 2015, but will continue throughout the forecast period
14. Mobile penetration: WE markets are mature and the mobile user base will decline in most of them
15. Mobile connections: 4G will become the predominant technology in 2016
16. Geographical coverage: 16 Western European countries comprised 21% of worldwide telecoms revenue in 2015
17. Smartphones and LTE: All WE countries, except Greece, will exceed 90% smartphone share of handsets in 2021
18. Mobile ARPU: Some markets will begin to recover, but the overall average will continue to trend down
19. Increasing 4G penetration of SIMs and OTT service usage will drive handset data ARPU growth
20. Forecast methodology and assumptions
21. We have a disciplined process of forecasting; our on-the-ground analysts and consultants collaborate closely to assess market dynamics
22. We use a vast variety of primary and secondary research for data collection; we use five key drivers and follow strict principles in forecasts
23. A robust and comparable set of historical data is the starting point for our forecasts; this involves three main activities
24. About the author and Analysys Mason
25. About the author
26. About Analysys Mason
27. Research from Analysys Mason
28. Consulting from Analysys Mason
List of Figures
Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Western Europe, 2011–2021
Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, worldwide, 2015–2021
Figure 3: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), worldwide, 2011–2021
Figure 4: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and 4G/5G’s share of total connections (excluding IoT), worldwide, 2015 and 2021
Figure 5: Mobile ARPU (excluding IoT) by region and worldwide, 2011–2021
Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, Western Europe, 2011–2021
Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and growth rates, Western Europe, 2015–2021
Figure 8: Connections by type, and growth rates, Western Europe, 2015–2021
Figure 9a: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), Western Europe, 2011–2021
Figure 9b: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), Western Europe, 2011–2021
Figure 10: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding IoT), and 3G, 4G and 5G’s share of connections, Western Europe, 2011–2021
Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, Western Europe, 2021
Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE’s share of total connections (excluding IoT), Western Europe, 2015 and 2021
Figure 13a: Mobile ARPU by country, Western Europe, 2011–2021
Figure 13b: Mobile ARPU by country, Western Europe, 2011–2021
Figure 14: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Western Europe, 2011–2021
Figure 15: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Western Europe, 2011– 2021
Figure 16: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Western Europ
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