The Mobile services in Sub-Saharan Africa: trends and forecasts 2015–2020
Table of Contents
5. Executive summary
6. Executive summary
7. Worldwide trends
8. Worldwide: Developing regions will have highest revenue growth, but NA will be largest retail revenue contributor by 2020
9. Worldwide: Mobile SIM penetration will increase to 108% by 2020, driven by service take-up in SSA, EMAP and DVAP
10. Worldwide: LTE’s share of connections will be the highest in NA (92%) and DVAP (84%), while SSA will trail behind (5%)
11. Worldwide: OTT services and converged bundle services will have a downward pressure on ARPU
12. Regional trends
13. SSA: Total service revenue will reach USD53 billion in 2020, driven by growth opportunities in mobile handset data
14. Mobile penetration: Connections will increase in most countries, but growth will slow down
15. Mobile connections: 2G will remain the main technology in SSA, but LTE will account for only 5.2% of mobile connections in 2020
16. Geographical coverage: We model 11 telecoms markets, which will account for 70% of SSA’s telecoms service revenue in 2020
17. Smartphones and LTE: South Africa will have the highest mobile LTE and smartphone penetration by 2020
18. Mobile ARPU: Spending on non-voice services will help to slow down ARPU decline in most of the countries
19. SSA–mobile: Penetration growth will be driven by demand for voice and Internet services
20. Country-level trends
21. Ghana: Increasing proliferation of smartphones and 3G availability from all six operators will help drive demand for data
22. Kenya: Strong demand for mobile services and success of mobile financial services will encourage continued growth
23. Nigeria: Demand for mobile handset data services is set to grow fast, offsetting declining voice and messaging revenue
24. South Africa: Competition and MTR cuts will impact revenue growth, while LTE take-up will benefit from new spectrum
25. Forecast methodology and assumptions
26. We have a disciplined process of forecasting; our on-the-ground analysts and consultants collaborate closely to assess market dynamics
27. Our forecasts are informed by primary and secondary research for data collection, a rigorous methodology and our analysis of external drivers
28. A robust and comparable set of historical data is the starting point for our forecasts; this involves three main activities
29. About the authors and Analysys Mason
30. About the authors
31. About Analysys Mason
32. Research from Analysys Mason
33. Consulting from Analysys Mason
List of Figures:
Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2010–2020
Figure 2: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2014–2020) and market size by total retail revenue (2020), by region, worldwide
Figure 3: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), worldwide, 2010–2020
Figure 4: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), worldwide, 2014 and 2020
Figure 5: Mobile ARPU by region and worldwide, 2010–2020
Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2010–2020
Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2020
Figure 8: Connections by type, and growth rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2020
Figure 9: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2010–2020
Figure 10: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G and 4G's share of connections, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2010–2020
Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation, by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2020
Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014 and 2020
Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2010–2020
Figure 14: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2010–2020
Figure 15: Mobile ARPU by type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2010–2020
Figure 16: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Sub-Saharan Africa
Figure 17: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Ghana, 2014–2020
Figure 18: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Kenya, 2014–2020
Figure 19: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Nigeria, 2014–2020
Figure 20: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, South Africa, 2014–2020
Figure 21: Data, research principles and external factors that inform our forecasting methodology
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