The Mobile services in emerging Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2019–2024

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Date: 12-Aug-2019
No. of pages: 13
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"Mobile service revenue in emerging Asia–Pacific will continue to grow, primarily due to the increasing mobile penetration and strong demand for data services."

Emerging Asia–Pacific (EMAP) contains some of the most dynamic telecoms markets and fastest growing economies in the world. This report examines the key trends and drivers, and provides comprehensive telecoms market forecasts and insights for the region and for six modelled countries: China, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam.

This report and associated data annex provide:


  • a 5-year forecast of 118 mobile KPIs for emerging Asia–Pacific as a whole and for 12 key countries

  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile service, and for key countries

  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison

  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile operators.


Geographical coverage

Countries modelled individually


  • Bangladesh

  • Cambodia

  • China

  • India

  • Indonesia

  • Malaysia

  • Nepal

  • Pakistan

  • Philippines

  • Sri Lanka

  • Thailand

  • Vietnam


Data coverage

Mobile connections


  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT

  • Prepaid, contract

  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G

  • Smartphone, non-smartphone


Mobile revenue


  • Service, retail

  • Prepaid, contract

  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT

  • Handset voice, messaging, data


Mobile ARPU


  • SIMS, handset

  • Prepaid, contract

  • Handset voice, data


Voice traffic


  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

The Mobile services in emerging Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2019–2024

Table of Contents

5.Executive summary
Executive summary
Worldwide trends
Worldwide: mobile handset data services will drive telecoms retail revenue growth worldwide
Regional trends
The total telecoms service revenue will continue to grow, driven by the increasing number of connections
Monthly data consumption per connection will increase six-fold during 2018–2024, but the contract share of mobile connections will only grow marginally
Mobile penetration rates will increase in most countries, and will only decline in Cambodia and Malaysia due to a fall in multi-SIM ownership
ARPU will decline in most countries during the forecast period due to growing competition and regulatory pressure
Increasing subscriber numbers and rising mobile data revenue will support the growth of mobile service revenue over the forecast period
Country-level trends
China: the Chinese telecoms market is the most-advanced telecoms market in EMAP
Indonesia: the number of mobile connections will recover rapidly following the large drop due to the 2018 prepaid SIM card registration regulation
Malaysia: high levels of competition will limit the total telecoms revenue growth during the forecast period
19.Philippines: the expected entry of a third MNO and a challenging regulatory environment will lead to a moderate increase in mobile retail revenue
Thailand: Thailand has some of the highest mobile data traffic per connection figures in the region
Vietnam: price competition in the prepaid mobile segment will lead to a decline in mobile service revenue
Forecast methodology and assumptions
Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
Examples of forecast input drivers
About the authors and Analysys Mason
About the authors
Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned
Research from Analysys Mason
Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures:

Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024
Figure 2: Mobile service revenue by location, emerging Asia–Pacific and worldwide, 2014–2024
Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue by mobile service type, and mobile ARPU, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024
Figure 4: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024
Figure 5: Mobile connections by type, emerging Asia–Pacific (million), 2014–2024
Figure 6: Mobile connections by generation, emerging Asia–Pacific (million), 2014–2024
Figure 7: Mobile ARPU by type, emerging Asia–Pacific (USD per month), 2014–2024
Figure 8: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024
Figure 9: Mobile data traffic per connection, emerging Asia–Pacific (MB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 10a: Mobile penetration by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024
Figure 10b: Mobile penetration by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024
Figure 11a: Mobile ARPU by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024
Figure 11b: Mobile ARPU by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024
Figure 12: Mobile ARPU, China (CNY per month), 2014–2024
Figure 13: Mobile connections by type, China (billion), 2014–2024
Figure 14: Mobile ARPU, Indonesia (IDR thousand per month), 2014–2024
Figure 15: Mobile connections by type, Indonesia (million), 2014–2024
Figure 16: Mobile ARPU, Malaysia (MYR per month), 2014–2024
Figure 17: Mobile connections by type, Malaysia (million), 2014–2024
Figure 18: Mobile ARPU, Philippines (PHP per month), 2014–2024
Figure 19: Mobile connections by type, Philippines (million), 2014–2024
Figure 20: Mobile ARPU, Thailand (THB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 21: Mobile connections by type, Thailand (million), 2014–2024
Figure 22: Mobile ARPU, Vietnam (VND thousand per month), 2014–2024
Figure 23: Mobile connections by type, Vietnam (million), 2014–2024

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