The Mobile services in Central and Eastern Europe: trends and forecasts 2019–2024

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Date: 18-Nov-2019
No. of pages: 11
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"The majority of the mobile revenue growth in Central and Eastern Europe will come from Russia and Turkey, where LTE network expansion will lead to an increase in mobile data consumption."

This report examines the key trends and drivers, and provides a comprehensive mobile telecoms market forecast for the Central and Eastern European region and for 16 individually modelled countries including the Czech Republic, Poland, Russia and Turkey.

This report provides


  • a 5-year forecast of 206 mobile KPIs for the Central and Eastern European region and for 16 key countries

  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile service, and for key countries

  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, which highlight similarities and differences between countries

  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile operators.


Geographical coverage

Countries modelled individually


  • Bulgaria

  • Croatia

  • Czech Republic

  • Estonia

  • Hungary

  • Latvia

  • Lithuania

  • Montenegro

  • Poland

  • Romania

  • Russia

  • Serbia

  • Slovakia

  • Slovenia

  • Turkey

  • Ukraine


Detailed country commentary


  • Czech Republic

  • Poland

  • Russia

  • Turkey


Data coverage

Mobile connections


  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT

  • Prepaid, contract

  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G

  • Smartphone, non-smartphone


Mobile revenue


  • Service, retail

  • Prepaid, contract

  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT

  • Handset voice, messaging, data


Mobile ARPU


  • SIMs, handset

  • Prepaid, contract

  • Handset voice, data


Voice traffic


  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

The Mobile services in Central and Eastern Europe: trends and forecasts 2019–2024

Table of Contents

5.Executive summary
Executive summary
Worldwide trends
Worldwide: mobile data demand will drive telecoms revenue growth in most regions
Regional trends
The growth in the mobile handset data revenue will outstrip the declines in the mobile voice and mobile messaging revenue
The total number of mobile connections will decline by 2024 due to market saturation and migration from multi-SIM prepaid plans to contract services
Penetration in CEE will plateau, mainly due to market saturation
Mobile ARPU will increase in CEE, stimulated by LTE expansions and the associated increase in data usage
The outlook for mobile ARPU and handset revenue is positive thanks to increasing LTE-A coverage and the growing adoption of contract subscriptions
Country-level trends
Czech Republic: the mobile market is relatively uncompetitive but this is likely to change following the introduction of a new mobile operator
Poland: the mobile market is competitive; operators are focusing on offering converged services
Russia: mobile revenue will grow modestly thanks to enhancements in service quality and favourable macroeconomic conditions
19.Turkey: the expansion of LTE network coverage will lead to higher mobile data usage and, in turn, will help to increase mobile ARPU
Forecast methodology and assumptions
Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
Examples of forecast input drivers
About the authors and Analysys Mason
About the authors
Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned
Research from Analysys Mason
Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 2: Mobile service revenue in CEE and the rest of the world, 2014–2024
Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue by mobile service type, and mobile ARPU, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 4: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 5: Mobile connections by type, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2014–2024
Figure 6: Mobile connections by generation, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2014–2024
Figure 7: Mobile ARPU by type, Central and Eastern Europe (EUR per month), 2014–2024
Figure 8: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Central and Eastern Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 9: Mobile data traffic per connection, Central and Eastern Europe (GB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 10a: Mobile penetration by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 10b: Mobile penetration by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 11a: Mobile ARPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 11b: Mobile ARPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 12: Mobile ARPU, Czech Republic (CZK per month), 2014–2024
Figure 13: Mobile connections by type, Czech Republic (million), 2014–2024
Figure 14: Mobile ARPU, Poland (PLN per month), 2014–2024
Figure 15: Mobile connections by type, Poland (million), 2014–2024
Figure 16: Mobile ARPU, Russia (RUB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 17: Mobile connections by type, Russia (million), 2014–2024
Figure 18: Mobile ARPU, Turkey (TRY per month), 2014–2024
Figure 19: Mobile connections by type, Turkey (million), 2014–2024

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